Start or Sit: Week Twelve

Brian McDonald
Senior Editor
November 15, 2007
I can hardly sleep. I wake up with scenarios running through my head. Focus and concentration are hopeless. I, like thousands others across the country, am playing for a fantasy championship this week, and personal relationships, employment responsbilities and general hygiene have all taken the proverbial backseat as a quarterback that goes by the name of Juice is all I can think about. I hope Juice had a hearty breakfast this morning. I hope Juice blew off his classes to study his play book. I hope Juice is sleeping in some hyperbaric oxygen chamber. I'm 32 years old and my Thanksgiving week happiness is resting on a young man who will be celebrating his 20th birthday on Monday and who would point and laugh if he knew how intently I will be watching his every move as I hold a cold one and huddle around a tailgate television on Saturday. It may not be rock-bottom for me, but it's in the same area code. In the interest of total disclosure I'm going to come clean. I played pro fantasy football for years and I won titles. I was a guy that other men respected and women ridiculed. I was somebody. However now is the time to admit that I've never won a college fantasy football championship. Nope, not one. I've played in two leagues (BCS and Big Ten) for a number of years now, and I've never hoisted the trophy. And if you ask my so-called friends, I've never really been close. In a sense, as a college fantasy football "expert" I'm the equivalent to a priest that provides marriage counseling: I look the part of someone who is giving sage advice, however ultimately I'm likely better off visiting old people. Saturday night this will all change. The bubbly and stogies have been purchased, the championship t-shirts will be picked up tonight, and nearly the entire league will be at the tailgate to witness this coronation including my unfortunate opponent and fellow CFFinsider, Alex. By the time we stroll into the Michigan State and Penn State clash, Tim Russert will likely have announced the winner and it may be the happiest stadium stroll of my life. Just as I was told following my kidney stone that I'd just experienced the closest pain to child birth, I've also been told that winning a Big Ten Fantasy League Championship is akin to winning the lottery, getting a hole-in-one and having healthy twins born on the same day. Of course the guy who told me that has done none of the above, but he got me through high school physics, so his word is gospel. Enough about me. This is about our loyal readers who offer ridicule on a weekly basis. So with you all in mind I took a break from examining my team and I peeked at match-ups while driving and eating lunch, so I'm fully prepared to provide sound fantasy advice. It's week twelve. Fleabag bowl births are up in the air, and championship hopes from Gainesville to Berkeley hang in the balance. It's time to make that fateful decision to start 'em or sit 'em... Quarterback Start 'Em The odds of Tim Tebow seeing the 4th quarter against Florida Atlantic this week are slim. Even so, you can count on Tim doing most of the damage to the Owls' defense before he exits. Tebow, through air and ground, accounts for over 75% of the Gator offense. Maybe that number drops to 60% this week, maybe even 50%, but I can't think of a safer bet for a quarterback to score at least three touchdowns this week than young Timothy. Besides they have to get to 40+ points before they can pull Tebow and something tells me this can’t be done with Kesthan Moore alone. Still, Tebow has the numbers to win a Heisman, so he doesn't need to account for seven scores this week; his Heisman hopes will hinge on whether or not the voters feel a sophomore should win it when he'll likely have at least one more opportunity in Gainesville. Again, expect him to be holding a clipboard for at least the final fifteen minutes but have a few TDs in the kitty before he does so. With that being said, the college fantasy quarterback of the year, Graham Harrell, has generated quite a bit of buzz among fantasy owners this week as he has to deal with the Sooner defensive unit. It's hard to ever recommend sitting Harrell due to the likelihood that you do not have any options that come close to Harrell's production. Still we are a bit concerned that the Sooner defensive unit will bully the Red Raider receivers, hence causing Harrell to struggle. He's Graham Harrell and he's the best fantasy quarterback in the country and playing at home, so you start him. However we've dropped a quarterback who has been in our top three all season to the number six slot for week twelve, so take that for what it's worth. Chase Holbrook rated 19th? Are we insane? Yes, we realize Holbrook is playing 0-10 Utah State, but we also realize that New Mexico State's offense has been wildly inconsistent this year. The reason why is simple: injuries and suspensions. Rarely has New Mexico State had its full arsenal at its disposal this year and they've struggled to form a cohesive unit. As it stands right now the Aggies look to be without wide out Derek Dubois (as well as Chris Williams). That said Holbrook is still a good start against a lowly Utah State squad. With the plethora of quarterback match-ups to choose from this week, we are picking guys that have performed week in and week out over Holbrook. This is consistency time and so far the Aggies have not delivered. The heat is on Hal Mumme who is 8-27 as the Aggies' head man; NMSU better not lay an egg this week. Colt Brennan has been cleared to play and the Warriors travel to the mainland to face Nevada. With Boise State on tap next week, this game has trap written all over it. Still, Hawaii can smell a BCS bowl bid, and it's hard to imagine June Jones not having his team focused on the task at hand. All signs (most notably the coach) point to Brennan being good to go. We like him to start, and while it's not the friendly confines of their trash-riddled home field and he hasn’t seen many reps in practice, you don’t bench your studs this time of year. Like Harrell, though, note that Colt is not sitting atop his normal perch in our rankings. Lost among the concern that Graham Harrell is playing Oklahoma is the fact that Sam Bradford is playing Texas Tech. Let's put it this way: if you're fortunate to have both Harrell and Bradford on your roster, it's damn near a toss up, although I'd roll the dice with young Samuel. Central Michigan's Dan LeFevour gets to welcome in-state quasi-rival Eastern Michigan to Mount Pleasant. Central and LeFevour have had some rough moments but have turned it on of late. The Chips smell a MAC title, and LeFevour smells a 35+ touchdown season. Start him! Paul Smith from Tulsa could easily be this week’s number one rated quarterback. Others to Watch Cullen Harper's outstanding season has gone unnoticed by many, but the Clemson signal caller has been the ACC's best quarterback, and now he gets to go head-to-head with the quarterback who has garnered nearly all of the attention. BC and Matt Ryan won't be easy, but Harper has given no indication that he can be held entirely in check. This should be a fun quarterback dual to watch. Dennis Dixon has had a week off and he gets to take on a bad Arizona defense. The Juice hosts Northwestern. I like his chances, but I'm hardly Switzerland on this issue. If you have Giovanni Vizza by all means play the gunslinger against Arkansas State. It appears that young Tyrod Taylor is building confidence, and he and his Hokies play host to a Miami team that may have mailed it in. This one could be a coming out party for Taylor. Sit 'Em Jake Locker's head/neck injury last week was a truly frightening moment, and the fact that he's even considered as a possibility to play is outstanding news. Still quarterbacks with sore necks listed as doubtful aren't good bets. You'd be wise to sit Locker as it appears senior Carl Bonnell will get his start. Now this doesn't mean Locker will necessarily miss the Apple Cup or that truly tasty tilt with Hawaii on December first. Coach Willingham knows what he has in his young quarterback, and Washington is looking towards 2008 and a big step towards next year will likely see Locker wearing a headset this week. Willie Tuitama has been maddening for the majority of the season, and this week's game with Oregon has a chance to get ugly. This could be Mike Stoops' biggest game in his Zona coaching career, and Willie will need to play well. Still, the Ducks have a great deal to play for, and while my cohorts might disagree this guy believes Tuitama will struggle. Florida Atlantic signal caller Rusty Smith has had a very nice season, and he may be the best quarterback named Rusty since Detroit Lion great Rusty Hilger. He's also coming off a four-score performance against Arkansas State. Florida and Arkansas State have very little in common. Down Rusty. Down. Watching Louisville this season has really bothered me. If there's a team that appears that it's been going through the motions it's been the Cardinals. Still, Brian Brohm has thrown 30 touchdown passes despite an essentially non-existent running game. This game with South Florida just seems a like a perfect storm situation where Brohm struggles and Louisville gets rolled.
Week RankPosNameSchool
1QBTim TebowFl
2QBPaul SmithTulsa
3QBColt BrennanHaw
4QBTaylor TharpBoise
5QBTyler SheehanBGSU
6QBGraham HarrellTexTech
7QBSam BradfordOk
8QBChase DanielMizzou
9QBKellen LewisIn
10QBColin KaepernickNev
11QBChase ClementRice
12QBTodd ReesingKan
13QBMatt GrotheSoFl
14QBDan LeFevourCMU
15QBCurtis PainterPur
16QBZac RobinsonOkSt
17QBMartin HankinsMemph
18QBDennis DixonOre
19QBChase HolbrookNMSU
20QBPatrick WhiteWVU
    
Running Backs Start 'Em Not only are UCF's Kevin Smith and Tulane's Matt Forte’ getting tons of carries, touchdowns and accolades, but they're also playing very susceptible opponents who average a combined 80 points against. And by susceptible I mean SMU's and Rice's run defenses are the equivalent of a junior-high substitute teacher with a friendly disposition...easy prey. If you own both Smith and Tulane you can start celebrating now. Sure Darren McFadden is going up against the Bulldogs, and Sly's boys aren't that bad and I'll be damned if calendar doesn't say November and Mississippi State is playing for something. However the fact that Felix Jones is very questionable means more carries for McFadden. Anytime more carries and McFadden are mentioned in the same sentence, I think this is a very good thing. The super back should take care of business this week. Rashard Mendenhall has moved to the head of the Big Ten running back class, and yet this back will likely join Cullen Harper on our all-under appreciated team. The Illinois junior combines a great combination of size and speed, and anyone who saw him run against the Buckeyes was witness to some very tough running. He'll have a field day against Northwestern. Both Justin Forsett and Arian Foster, like Mendenhall, have exceeded expectations with very little hype and fanfare. Forsett should have his way against the Huskies and Foster should find ample roaming room against Vanderbilt. To say that Kentucky's run defense leaves a great deal to be desired would be an understatement. Now I know you're concerned about the Knowshon Moreno and Thomas Brown situation at Georgia, but we have a solution: play both Moreno and Brown. Moreno will want to keep the train rolling and Thomas Brown will want to prove he is not done just yet, and that he won't be shown up by that young whippersnapper. Others to Watch A steady dose of Luke Lippincott may be the way to slow down the Hawaii offense. He'll get his carries and yards. Oklahoma's Dantrell Savage could carry the load with Mr. Bowman out. Oklahoma State will likely be able to pick its victory method, and there's a very good chance the formula includes Dantrell left and Dantrell right. Chris Wells, while banged up for a good portion of the season, is a sound play against a Michigan rush defense that's shown a willingness to play the victim at the line of scrimmage. Yvenson Bernard ran well last week but he was held out of the end zone. Expect Bernard to run well against Wazzu, and expect him to find the end zone. I like Rodney Kinlaw to bust a few big ones against Michigan State. Feeling lucky are you punk? Then DeMarco Murray is your go-for-broke play. Iowa’s Albert Young is eyeing a MAC defense that is surrendering 194 yards per game on the ground. Ride that Bronco Albert. Sit 'Em Word is that 5% of the national disorderly arrests were a direct result of N.C State Jamelle Eugene's owners partying following last week's performance. As someone who usually looks to make a waiver acquisition after an impressive two-yard gain by a back, I'm calling fluke on this one. The Demon Deacon defense should have the cure for this madness. Scoring three against North Carolina is one thing, but the Wake unit will be ready for this johnny-come-lately. It appears that Mike Hart has not been healthy since the fourth of July. Now this hasn't stopped the Michigan back from accumulating over 1200 yards from scrimmage with 12 scores, and you can bet that everything is being done to ensure that his senior class doesn't go winless against the Buckeyes. Still, running well against Michigan State and Purdue while not 100% is entirely different than doing it against James Laurinaitis and friends. This is a risky play, and odds are you have nothing close to comparable at the spot. Mike Hart will run out under the banner and he'll likely start. But buyer beware. I think BenJarvus Green-Ellis entered college the same year as Doug Flutie and he's had a nice senior year for someone in his early 30's. Still the LSU defense will put an end to these three-touchdown shenanigans. Felix Jones will likely not play this week. Calvin Dawson will find that is tougher to run against the Crimson Tide than it is against Sun Belt defenses.
Week RankPosNameSchool
1RBKevin SmithUCF
2RBMatt FortéTulane
3RBRashard MendenhallIll
4RBRay RiceRut
5RBIan JohnsonBoise
6RBDarren McFaddenArk
7RBKnowshon MorenoGa
8RBJustin ForsettCal
9RBArian FosterTenn
10RBBrandon McAndersonKan
11RBDantrell SavageOkSt
12RBEugene JarvisKentSt
13RBJonathan StewartOre
14RBJames JohnsonKanSt
15RBSteve SlatonWVU
16RBThomas BrownGa
17RBTashard ChoiceGaTech
18RBYvenson BernardOreSt
19RBReggie ArnoldArkSt
20RBLuke LippincottNev
    
Wide Receiver Start 'Em Well, we've done it again. Proving that it takes a lot to get us to change our mind, we've gone ahead and ranked Jordy Nelson ahead of Mike Crabtree on our wide receiver rankings, despite the fact that Crabtree made us pay last week. We're putting our faith in Josh Freeman and the fact that the Jordy is going up against a much friendlier secondary in Missouri than Crabtree is against the Sooners. While we fully expect more emails claiming that we're all under the influence of foreign substances, we're holding steady. Air Force's Chad Hall, fresh off his team's ho-hum victory over the Irish, will see a step up in opponent as they tackle San Diego State. Hall has been a running and receiving machine all season and this shouldn't change this week. He's our number three wide receiver. Years ago there was a television show called "Bosom Buddies" and it starred two young actors. Even at the age of six I knew that the young Peter Scolari was going to hit it big, while his co-star Tom Hanks would struggle before likely falling off the cinematic landscape. This summer I just knew that Missouri's Danario Alexander was going to be a breakout star and that Jeremy Maclin would be relegated to the equivalent of B sitcoms. While there is certainly a possibility that Peter Scolari may still win multiple Oscars and become a huge star, Danario Alexander may be looking at a very big return from injuries in 2008. Until then I'll admit that I missed it big time on young Mr. Maclin and he should build upon his 13 touchdown season against a Kansas State defensive unit that was just beaten like a drum in Lincoln. Percy Harvin is ailing. Florida is taking on Florida Atlantic. Play Andre Caldwell and you'll likely be rewarded. Mario Mannigham has turned it on of late, and he's proven worthy of his high draft status. Still Super Mario is joined at the hip to Chad Henne as Ryan Mallett is experiencing growing pains expected of a true freshman. If it's clear on Friday night that Chad Henne is a certain go, then Manningham becomes a great start. If it looks like young Mallett is going to see significant snaps, then Manningham drops off the radar. Henne is that important. It's reasonable to expect Indiana and Purdue to put some points on the board and it's therefore reasonable to expect both James Hardy and Dorien Bryant to come up big. Hardy is coming off a very James Hardly-like performance (7-107-2) while Bryant is coming off a 4-23 day. Still we like each to show up as each team is playing for bowl slotting. Others to Watch Jeremy Childs should have a nice little outing against Idaho. A couple of Texas boys, Houston Cougar Donnie Avery and UTEP's Jeff Moturi should each be good for a score this week. Assuming nothing, we're going to tell you to play Malcolm Kelly against Texas Tech. Yes, we are masters of the obvious. What is this I see? Cincinnati’s Dominick Goodman is starting to turn it on? If you've held onto Goodman this long, you might as well try to get some last minute production out of him. It is time to unleash that Eron Riley pick-up from a few weeks back on your league mates. With Derek Dubois likely out, A.J. Harris becomes an option. Dez Bryant over at Oklahoma State is in a similar situation. Don't look for Jarett Dillard to slow down anytime soon. Sit 'Em Earlier I mentioned how the Louisville Cardinals just bother me, but I may have implied that Brian Brohm is the sole reason. We'll he's not. The receivers bug me too, and Harry Douglas is one of the receivers high on my list. He's scored one touchdown in the past four weeks, and there's no reason to believe he'll be impressive against South Florida. At first glance Early Doucet looks like a solid start. However he just didn't appear to be 100% last week. Now we're not doctors, and yes, it's hard to diagnose a wide receiver down South from a couch in the Midwest, still we know what we saw there pal. He may very well put up a score against Ole Miss, just don't expect a huge game from the talented wide receiver. New Mexico State wide receiver Derek Dubois will miss this week's game with Utah State. Dubois was considered the number one receiver after star Chris Williams was lost for the year. Tight End Start 'Em Earlier we made reference to the Bowman injury at Oklahoma State the potential fantasy benefits for running back Dantrell Savage. As one dimensional teams often struggle, expect tight end Brandon Pettigrew to bounce back from his pedestrian outing against Kansas last week that only saw him haul in one catch for five yards. Pettigrew is a threat, and Baylor is bad. Expect Wisconsin tight end (really a wide receiver) Travis Beckum to wreak a little havoc in the Gopher dome. Minnesota will be no match for a Wisconsin squad sky-high following a rare win over Michigan. On a side note, if you're an owner with Travis Beckum at tight end and Air Force's Chad Hall you're suspect...and we have a great deal of respect for your cagey ways. As a Jermaine Gresham owner I'm salivating at the thought of a Texas Tech defense trying to learn what this strange position known as tight end is all about.

RELATED PLAYERS & SCHOOLS

Tags: Sit/Start
Week RankPosNameSchool
1WRJordy NelsonKanSt
2WRMichael CrabtreeTexTech
3WRChad HallAF
4WRJames HardyIn
5WRJarett DillardRice