2008 Look Ahead: Big Ten

Brian McDonald
Senior Editor
December 05, 2007
In a year of stunning upsets, the fantasy year in the Big Ten went, by most accounts, as planned. In August we deemed guys like Mike Hart, Chris Wells, Rashard Mendenhall, Mario Manningham, James Hardy and Travis Beckum the conference’s top fantasy returners, and while some struggled with nicks and bruises, all came close to meeting and exceeding those lofty expectations. Certainly we expected more for Chad Henne, however injuries kept the senior from reaching his fantasy potential. Kellen Lewis exceeded even our lofty pre-season expectations. Devin Thomas came from nowhere, and who could’ve predicted that Minnesota’s Adam Weber would match the production of Curtis Painter? So, while we had our hits, there are always a few surprises as well. In other words it proved to be another wildly fun year of fantasy football in the Big Ten Conference. This is the second in a series of articles that takes a cursory look at what can be anticipated as we move towards the 2008 college fantasy football season. Granted a great deal can change, however this is our gut feeling on players to watch as spring ball will be here before you know it. Today we take a look at the Big Ten. Before we do move forward, here’s a look at the All-Big Ten fantasy team of 2007. An asterisk notes those players that have either exhausted their eligibility (*) or may be candidates to forego their remaining years on campus (**). Please keep in mind that any speculation is just that, speculation and we’ll have more on these potential early entries candidates as information becomes available. 2007 Big Ten Fantasy Team QB: Kellen Lewis 332.90 RB: Rashard Mendenhall** 227.00 RB: Chris Wells 182.93 WR: James Hardy** 167.66 WR: Mario Manningham** 143.46 TE: Travis Beckum** 100.40 K: Kevin Kelly* 133.00 D: Ohio State Buckeyes Illinois Fighting Illini Will be missed next year: It’s a really good sign for a fantasy outlook when a team’s primary loss is a placekicker, therefore the Fighting Zookers appear, on paper, to be capable of following up their fine performance from 2007. Sure, there’s a chance that someone may get in Rashard Mendenhall’s ear (update: someone did), however at this point we’ll assume (incorrectly) that the Juice, Mendenhall and Benn will all return, and they’ll be joined by other recruits Zook lets douse him with Gatorade on recruiting visits. Jason Reda was 15/16 on field goals, and he missed one extra point. Due to this fine performance, and a 2007 season where youth was served, the 2008 Illini look like an awful lot of fun. Fantasy Star of 2008: Our gut tells us Mendenhall will return, and the Juice is back as well. However the uncertainty at this point surrounding Rashard, and the presence of talented backup quarterback Eddie McGee causes some concern. Therefore we’re going to go with Superfreak Regis Benn as the player to explode in 2008. Benn’s 49-596-2 can be considered a relative disappointment due to the summer hype. Benn should’ve been a bigger target in the redzone, and we expect him to make amends for this in 2008. No matter who throws the ball Benn is going to make plays. Fantasy sleeper of 2008: It has to be Eddie McGee. If the Illini struggle out of the gate McGee may seize control. He’s certainly shown enough to warrant the belief of many that he’s Illinois’ best quarterback option. Still this sleeper should be used with caution, as a hot start by Juice will have Eddie remaining on the sideline. Take a late flyer and see what happens. 2008 Team Fantasy Outlook: We like the Zooker and we also think those crying recruiting violations are likely just sucking on some sour grapes. Zook is like the funny looking guy who walks into a party with a 10 on his arm. You know he's got a nice personality and he's fun, yet you wonder what that knockout is doing with that guy. Still with that ringing endorsement of Mr. Jet-Ski, we think Illinois may have trouble repeating their 2007 performance in the win column for 2008, however the offense will likely continue to click. There’s simply too much talent returning on the offensive side of the ball. Benn and Mendenhall are freaks. They’re hard to cover. They make life easy for the quarterbacks. The Illini offense is one of the surer Big Ten things heading into 2008. Indiana Hoosiers Will be missed next year: One really has to believe that there’s likelihood James Hardy has played his last game in Bloomington. Following a 16 touchdown 2008 in which he displayed remarkable consistency it appears the 6’7” wide receiver will likely make a lot of money on Sundays. Only in a four-catch performance against Wisconsin did Hardy fail to find the end zone, and he scored twice in five games. If he leaves, the Big Ten’s top receiver will leave a gaping hole in the Indiana offense, and his absence will likely provide the greatest question regarding Kellen Lewis’ ability to repeat his 2007 performance next season. He’ll be nearly impossible for the Hoosiers to replace. Fantasy Star of 2008: Kellen Lewis accounted for 35 scores and was 60 points better than the second-best fantasy quarterback in the conference, the surprising Adam Webber. While we expected Lewis to shine in 2007, we certainly didn’t see this happening. Lewis will be far and away the top returner for the Hoosiers, and he’ll be a sure-fire first round pick in Big Ten Leagues. However the anticipated loss of James Hardy and the fact that Indiana has never shown success in back-to-back years makes Lewis a little risky for a quarterback that had his type of success as a sophomore. Fantasy sleeper of 2008: Operating under the impression that the great James Hardy will take his act to the NFL, we’re in search of Kellen Lewis’ next go-to guy. The normal course of action, usually brought upon by fear of injury and dealing with a quarterback not named Tim Tebow, is to attempt to have a running quarterback throw more and run less as he matures. With Hardy’s anticipated exit stage left, we believe the next receiver Lewis will look to in times of distress is junior-to-be Ray Fisher. Among Fisher’s 49-462-4 sophomore campaign was two games in excess of 100 yards receiving. Fisher, a converted defensive back, comes in at nearly a foot shorter than Hardy, however he has the potential to get lost in the shuffle and take those underneath routes the distance. 2008 Fantasy Outlook: If Hardy returns the offensive unit will likely to hum along and Kellen Lewis may come close to duplicating his great sophomore season. Hardy’s exit takes away a Linus-type security blanket in the red zone, however Lewis has shown the ability to make plays on his own. He’s by far the number one Hoosier fantasy prospect in 2008, and we’ll hope that Marcus Thigpen can finally produce as we’ve hoped from the tailback spot. While I’m sounding like a broken record (remember those things?) until Hardy commits to either return or prepare for the combine, it’s hard to tell if Indiana will be able to “Play 13” with an explosive offense in 2008. Iowa Will be missed in 2008: As a sophomore Albert Young touched the ball 274 times, exceeded 1500 yards and scored eight times. He was never quite able to exceed those expectations, but this doesn’t mean he wasn’t a steady contributor as a junior and senior. Injuries took their toll, but Young did account for nearly 1200 yards and seven scores. Trouble was most owners gave up on Young following six scoreless weeks and missed out on his five touchdowns in three games performance. Young was steady for a putrid Hawkeye offense in 2007, and he will be missed, yes, but his numbers are certainly replaceable. Fantasy star in 2008: I bought into the Jake Christensen hype and I’m left feeling like an investor in some tech stock from a few years back. In other words, I feel fresh out of luck. Christensen didn’t show enough to warrant serious consideration as a fantasy player next season. So until we see otherwise from Jake we’ll go with Tony Moeaki, the tight end who pummeled Syracuse before being lost for the season with a hand and elbow injuries in game three. Moeaki may have been well on his way to a season as a top fantasy tight end before things were cut short. The return of Christensen’s security blanket may spur growth from the quarterback spot, and it may make Moeaki a household name around the Big Ten. Of course the emergence of tight end Brandon Myers after Moeaki went down will provide greater offensive balance, the longtime enemy of any fantasy owner. Fantasy sleeper of 2008: Well we need a tailback in Iowa City to latch onto, and rather than take an easy way out by taking the next tailback on the depth chart, or the emerging wide out, Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, we’re going to take a flyer on 2007 redshirt freshman quarterback Arvell Neslon due to Christensen’s inability to take a stranglehold on the gig. The 6’4” Nelson is an intriguing prospect, and if he can stay out of trouble in 2008, he may get his chance to take the job. 2008 Fantasy Outlook: Well it can’t get much worse than 2007, and while the Hawkeyes will need to find new backs to underachieve, the receivers and tight ends should be the strength of this offensive unit. However strong wide receivers and tight ends without a consistent quarterback or running game often leads to a great deal of frustration. We (and apparently the Michigan Wolverines) think Kirk Ferentz, despite the 18-18 stretch, can still coach a little football. While nowhere near the Brad Banks and Fred Russell version of the Iowa Hawkeyes offensive unit, the Hawkeyes won't be as bad as 2007. Still a mediocre offense is one to avoid on draft day. Michigan Wolverines Will be missed in 2008: Even in an injury-riddled season where owners were left wondering if he would play down the stretch, Mike Hart will be a tough act to follow for any Wolverine runner. Hart scored twelve times in the first seven games, and then he didn’t score again. Still he was a great number one fantasy back for much of the season, and while the Michigan passing offense struggled amidst Chad Henne’s injury woes, when healthy, Hart was the go-to guy. There’s certainly concern that Mario Manningham, with his boys (including Coach Carr) moving on, may decide to forego his senior season, and this would be a tough loss for Michigan’s new coach to overcome. However there haven’t been too many, if any, better fantasy backs in the University of Michigan’s history. And he’ll be hard to replace. Fantasy Star of 2008: Update: This piece was written before the hire of Rich Rodriguez and the transfer of Ryan Mallett. In other words, ignore the next paragraph. He often had the freshman-in-police spotlight look. He often ran around like he was wearing shoes made of cement and he was good for a fumble a game. Yet there were enough moments where he’d rocket a pass between two closing defenders and it became clear why many thought Ryan Mallett was the best high school quarterback in 2007’s class. He’s a strong-armed, tall and talented (did I say strong-armed?) quarterback and he’s only going to get better. Thanks to a devastating injury we’ll never know if star quarterback/receiver recruit from a couple year’s back, Antonio Bass, would have changed Michigan’s pro-style offensive style and proven to the powers-that-be that is it is nice to have a maize and blue quarterback who can run AND throw. However Michigan appears content to have a Troy Aikman-type under center, and while Mallett will sometimes be a sitting duck, he’ll also get enough time to have a very good fantasy season as a sophomore. Fantasy Sleeper of 2008: In 2004 a little record-setting freshman from New York State moved his little fridge and toiletries to Ann Arbor and took over for the workhorse Chris Perry, and Mike Hart never looked back. There’s a very good chance that Texas high-school highlight reel Sam McGuffie may pull a Hart in 2008. Go ahead and YouTube this kid and tell me what you think. The last high school highlight reel I saw that compared to young Sam’s was Noel Devine’s a few year’s back. Who were the other schools recruiting this kid? Notre Dame, Southern Cal and Florida. There are questions to be answered surrounding the Michigan offense that will be without Lloyd Carr (and likely OC Mike Debord) however freak talent is freak talent. I don’t see this as a pick and stash-McGuffie will have an impact next season (if he sticks to his commitment). 2008 Fantasy Outlook: It’s fitting that Henne, Hart and Lloyd Carr leave Michigan at the same time as it seems that they they all came to Michigan in the same year. Needless to say things will look different next year, and we’ve truly got an elite program at a critical juncture. Regardless of the new coach it’s pretty clear that Ryan Mallett will be the starting quarterback. If Manningham and Adrian Arrington return it’ll likely be a pass-happy offense in Ann Arbor. Carlos Brown and Brandon Minor will fight for the starting gig at running back while trying to hold off incoming recruits. This one’s going to be interesting. Michigan State Spartans Will be missed next year: Javon Ringer was supposed to be the machine for the Spartans this year, however every time a Spartan game was over Jehuu Caulcrick had a couple of scores. This happens enough times and you’ve got 21 scores on the season. Caulcrick scored in all but two games, and he scored multiple times in an impressive seven games. While he never ran for more than 100 yards in a contest, I don’t think too many of Caulcrick’s owners are complaining. Additionally my gut tells me that Devin Thomas will be off to pursue riches following a breakout junior campaign. The JUCO really came from nowhere and he was an all-purpose machine in 2007. His 75-1226-8 will be very difficult to replace. Fantasy Star of 2008: Javon Ringer’s owners were likely disappointed in his six scores and maybe even had a Jehuu Caulcrick voodoo doll hidden under their couch. Especially frustrating was Ringer’s ability to break loose, get the tough yardage and still only run for a fraction of the scores gained by his backfield mate. With Caulcrick gone, this should change in 2008. Don't let his height fool you, Ringer has the ability to be a goal line back. However, don't assume that Ringer will simply get all of Caulcrick's goal line touches. Other power backs, fullbacks and play action passes will be mixed in more. We like Ringer to close in on 1500 and 15 in 2008. The Dantonio/Treadwell offense is a prototype in balance, and Ringer will be the prime beneficiary of defenses forced to remain honest. Fantasy sleeper of 2008: Sophomore-to-be wide receiver Mark Dell may assume Devin Thomas’ role as the go-to receiver, however our true sleeper of sleepers will be redshirt freshman Ashton Leggett. Leggett, and his bowling ball frame, may be the perfect candidate to assume the goal line vulture role perfected by Mr. Caulcrick. Leggett will be one to keep an eye on this spring to see if he is getting the reps he needs to become the next MSU power back. 2008 Team Fantasy Outlook: Michigan State’s Mark Dantonio/Don Treadwell offense was supposed to be bland compared to that wacky John L. Smith/Dave Baldwin spread that led to great highs and devastating lows. Instead the offense made fantasy stars of the likes of Caulcrick, Ringer and Thomas in 2007. While the Baldwin offense was predicated on balance among decent-mediocre players, the new version says, “these are our best now go ahead and stop them” and opponents struggled to do so. Names such as Hoyer, Ringer, Dell will likely be ones to nab on draft day, and this offense should again be fun to watch, and key players will put up big fantasy digits. Minnesota Golden Gophers Will be missed next year: Senior Amir Pinnix was expected to do much more than a little over 600 yards and six touchdowns, but no one back in August could predict that Minnesota would be so bad that it would often prove difficult for the Gophers to establish any semblance of a running game. Because they were so far behind so often, senior Ernie Wheelwright was able to finish his career on a high note as he put up 66-775-9 on the campaign. Fantasy Star of 2008: Adam Weber appears to be the man for the next few years, and if we see growth and maturity, Weber could be the one of the conference’s best fantasy quarterbacks while he’s at Minny. Expected to battle with Tony Mortensen all season, Weber put to rest any potential quarterback controversy and finished with 29 touchdown passes against 19 interceptions. One can expect that like a young Curtis Painter, we’ll see a decrease in those picks as Weber matures. He’s a very nice spot starter nationally, and he’s a top Big Ten fantasy quarterback. Fantasy sleeper of 2008: Wide receiver Tray Herndon saw valuable snaps and he produced to the turn of 22-235-1. He’s a very nice young receiver, and while the Gophers may struggle until they’re ready to move into that nice new on-campus stadium, Herndon would team with Weber to get lots and lots of garbage scores. 2008 Team Fantasy Outlook: We don’t think Coach Brewster wants to throw the ball nearly as much as he was forced to in 2007, however the Gophers have a long way to go. That first half in last season’s bowl game against Texas Tech must seem like five years ago to Minnesota football fans. Still the Gophers are a place for fantasy owners to do a little shopping come draft day. Weber is a very viable fantasy quarterback, Eric Decker will be the go-to receiver for the next two years, youngsters Jay Thomas and Tray Herndon could make some real noise, and running back Duane Bennett could be a steal if they can get their running game going. Northwestern Wildcats Will be missed in 2008: Steady Brandon Roberson will move on yet there will really be no significant fantasy losses for the Wildcats. The Northwestern offense often shows an explosive side against a mediocre opponent and then they’re unable to move the ball against an equally bad team the following week. Any Wildcats are only worthy starts in, at most, six games a season, and it’s hard to predict which weeks where the team will move the ball. Fantasy star in 2008: Terrell Sutton is another who has seemingly been around forever, and he should be the focal point of the offense in 2008. Following a great freshman season and injury-plagued sophomore year, Sutton was a disappointment as a junior with only four scores. Still the expected growth of C.J. Bacher should see Sutton hit double-digit scores next autumn. Fantasy sleeper of 2008: It’s cheating to call Omar Conteh a sleeper in 2008, however we have integrity issues. Besides, it’s Northwestern. What do you want me to do? Conteh showed an ability to move the ball in Sutton’s absence and we can’t see him going back to a mop up back in 2008. He and Sutton could be a very fine 1-2 punch, and coupled with Bacher and Ross Lane, the Wildcats may be worthy of an occasional fantasy start even after the Big Ten season begins. 2008 Fantasy Outlook: It’ll be another hit or miss dealio in Evanston. Some games they’ll be clicking like Dorothy with those ruby slippers and other times a flying house will fall on the entire offensive unit. With Bacher, Sutton, Conteh and Ross Lane there is some very intriguing fantasy talent that will return to the Big Ten’s smart school, however anyone banking on Northwestern players to round out a starting lineup will be looking forward to 2009 very early next season. Ohio State Buckeyes Will be missed in 2008: The Buckeyes will say goodbye to senior running back Trevor Robinson. Now you’re wondering just who is this Trevor Anderson. Exactly. The Buckeyes’ only offensive loss is the little-used running back, and the skill players that return give Buckeyes’ fans reason to believe that their amazing run of success is going to continue well into the foreseeable future. Fantasy star in 2008: I may have been guilty of a little Chris Wells hyperbole last summer, however 254-1463-14 is damn impressive considering the green skill positions surrounding Beanie. The junior-to-be likely has one more season before he’ll start making a lot of money, and there’s reason to believe that Wells could join Buckeye greats like Archie Griffin, Eddie George and Troy Smith as the owners of a really cool trophy. He’s a terrific talent who just needs to avoid the injuries. Fantasy sleeper of 2008: Jake Ballard is a pretty good receiving tight end, and he’ll be a great underneath option when Robiskie, Hartline and Small aren’t catching bombs. Ballard may develop into the Big Ten’s best tight end option (if Beckum declares) in 2008. 2008 Fantasy Outlook: Last summer we expressed our admiration for the Texas Longhorns and their ability to go from the run-throw Vince Young to the throw-throw Colt McCoy. Ohio State is deserving of the same praise. The Troy Smith to Todd Boeckman transition produced no drop-off in the Buckeyes, because, well, the Bucks are in the exact same place they were last year: about to play for the national title. We loved the Buckeyes’ play action offense reminiscent of former NFL’ers like Mark Rypien and Jim Plunkett. Pound, pound, pound, and then wing it deep. Wells is a fantasy stud, Boeckman is a great back-up option when matchups are right and every single receiver (including the pretty aptly named Ray Small) could explode on any given Saturday. Penn State Nittany Lions Will be missed in 2008: Rodney Kinlaw did a really nice job filling in for Austin Scott, whose PSU career, for various reasons, never took off. The senior Kinlaw accounted for ten scores, and he, along with Anthony Morelli will move on following four years that saw Penn State come really close (especially in Ann Arbor) but never able to fully get over the hump. Morelli’s 18 scores could be deemed a disappointment by some, however any owner banking on a Penn State signal caller gets what he deserves. Fantasy star in 2008: It’s Evan Royster and no one else appears ready to take over the role of Nittany Lion fantasy star. The highlight of Royster’s year was his 22-133-2 performance from scrimmage against Purdue. The offense will likely be built around the talented back and while it appears Darryl Clark will get the first crack at the starting quarterbacking job, Royster will be the workhorse. Fantasy sleeper of 2008: I guess we’ve got to go with Darryl Clark, the running quarterback whose name was rolling off the tongues of PSU fans fed up with Morelli. Clark is intriguing, and he’ll naturally draw comparisons to Michael Robinson, another running quarterback who waited his turn. Still if the Penn State offense of late has taught us anything it’s to take a wait and see approach before drinking the Kool-Aid. 2008 Fantasy Outlook: We’re tired of waiting for Derrick Williams, and because we won’t have him on ANY of our sleeper lists, he’s likely in for an All-American season. The PSU offense of late is one that seems to suck owners in only to disappoint, and yes, there’s a great deal of intrigue as we head into 2008. Clark is very interesting, and Royster could provide some fireworks. Still this team is likely chock full of spot starters and fantasy reserves. Purdue Boilermakers Will be missed in 2008: Dorien Bryant leaves West Lafayette following a four year career that saw him go for 36 scores, and his production will be difficult to replace. He’s one, if not the best wide receiver in Purdue history. He exceeded 80 catches in each of his final three seasons, and he was the go-to guy in the offense. Couple Bryant’s departure with that of the troubled Selwyn Lymon and top fantasy tight end Dustin Keller, and there will be a bunch of receptions available next season. Fantasy star in 2008: We’re thinking Curtis Painter returns for his senior season, and he’ll contend for the Big Ten’s best fantasy quarterback, and a top national consideration. Painter cut down greatly on his interceptions on the way to a 26 touchdown and 3,300 yard season. He will miss the likes of Dorien Bryant and Dustin Keller, however it appears a very good likelihood that Tiller will have suitable replacements that will allow Painter to push for more than 30 scores. Fantasy sleeper of 2008: Freshman running back Dan Dierking was impressive in spot duty in 2007, and one would expect his role to increase in an offense that has utilized two backs in recent years and will need to soon see a changing of the guard. Dierking is an interesting prospect next year and will fight Jaycen Taylor for carries (still confirming Kory Sheets eligibility), but he’s especially intriguing down the road. 2008 Fantasy Outlook: It’ll be the Curtis Painter Show once again, however he’ll also have a pretty decent running game behind him. We’ll focus a great deal on spring reports out of West Lafayette because we’ll need to find out who is going to snare those receptions lost to graduation and defections. As it stands right now Greg Orton will likely be the fantasy man at wide receiver, but there will likely be a young lad who comes from nowhere to make a move. Wisconsin Badgers Will be missed in 2008: First and foremost, it appears that Travis Beckum is going to consider giving up his eligibility to play on Sundays. However, in this case we’ll assume he’s hanging around to improve his all-around game, and provided the tight end/wide receiver does return, then steady quarterback Tyler Donovan becomes the biggest loss in 2008. He withstood Allan Evridge’s summer charge and then put up 20 scores in leading his Badgers to yet another fine season. Evridge is intriguing and if he can match Donovan’s season then he becomes a decent quarterbacking option to provide depth in 2008. Fantasy star in 2008: The offense will once-again be built around P.J Hill, however the emergence of Zach Brown and Lance Smith should cause great concern to owners banking on protecting Hill for a few years. With this in mind Travis Beckum becomes the fantasy star for the Badgers next year as his shady eligibility at tight end gives owners a great advantage. He more closely resembles a speedy wide receiver than a lumbering tight end. Provided Beckum is deemed tight-end eligible in your league Fantasy sleeper of 2008: Class of 2007 wide receiver Nick Toon has two things going for him. As a recruit he had a lot of stars next to his name, and he’s related to a pretty good receiver who shares his surname (good genes gotta count for something). The 6’3” Toon should provide a very nice option for Allan Evridge. He’s one to draft and stash. 2008 Fantasy Outlook: There is plenty of talent returning, and a great deal of talent ready to step in right now in Badgerland. The threat of a split carry monster at running back, both to keep all parties happy and to keep Mr. Hill healthy is the number one threat to fantasy happiness in Madison. We expect Evridge to be steady at quarterback but certainly not worthy of starting consideration at this point. Should he return, Beckum will be the star and definitely one of the country’s best tight ends and freshman wide out Kyle Jefferson showed enough flashes to have us intrigued as well. There’s plenty more to come on the Big Ten Conference this off-season. Up next is the Southeastern Conference.

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