Following a nice bowl season the Big Ten enters 2010 with a little momentum, something that couldn’t have been said the last few years. And though we say goodbye to Joey Elliott and Daryll Clark, the majority of teams return young quarterbacks that could see the conference move further away from the days of Woody and Bo.
John Clay and Evan Royster return to headline the tailbacks, a position that will welcome back its top ten fantasy backs from 2009. And there are a whole bunch of sophomore wide receivers ready to make the next step. So as pleased as the conference representatives must be with the close of 2009, they must be even more excited with the prospects for 2010.
With so much talent returning and their performance during the bowl season, it is not a surprise to see three Big Ten teams in numerous preseason Top 10s. And fantasy owners will find the conference to be an inviting option on draft day.
Illinois
2009 Record: 3-9
Returning Starters: 6 offense / 3 o-line, 6 defense
Who They Lose
And so concludes the Juice Williams and Arrelious Benn era. While each certainly provided some exciting moments, their careers didn’t end as many had hoped. Williams missed time due to ineffective play and a little scapegoating, and Benn simply couldn’t find the end zone enough in his final two seasons in Champaign.
Who Returns
A chunk of the offensive line was very young in 2009, thus growth is to be expected up front. The running game will probably become the focal point, with talented sophomores Mikel LeShoure and Jason Ford returning. LeShoure’s impressive running down the stretch means he’ll likely be a late-round sleeper option in many leagues.
The Illini have a bunch of sophomore receivers that will team with Jarred Fayson, though questions remain at the quarterback spot. Eddie McGee looked like anything but a Big Ten quarterback in his limited action, thus the job may be Jacob Charest’s to lose.
The Zooker
In happier economic times the Zooker may be spending his 2010 blowing his buyout on mai tais while tooling around Florida on a jetski. Instead the powers-that-be at Illinois will keep their head football coach around for at least another season. New offensive coordinator Paul Petrino has us a little bit intrigued, though it appears that the Zooker recruiting locomotive continues to lose steam.
2010 Fantasy Outlook: Weak
It’s too easy to look at the 2010 Illini squad and focus solely on the fact that Juice and Benn are gone. The offensive line had many youngsters see significant snaps last season, and the unit should be improved. And with this a better running game should be anticipated. Still, it’s hard to get too fired up about this team.
Mikel LeShoure has the makings of a top Big Ten back, and he’ll be the only draftable commodity for Illinois in larger leagues.
Indiana
2009 Record: 4-8
Returning Starters: 10 offense / 5 o-line, 8 defense
Who They Lose
Hardly anyone. The Hoosiers bring back nearly everyone but Anthony Thompson and Antwaan Randel El, though they do see some defensive losses.
Who Returns
Ben Chappell is a very nice Big Ten quarterback, Darius Willis is a solid young back, Damarlo Belcher a potential red zone matchup nightmare, I aint giving up on TE Max Dedmond, and Tandon Doss may be the best young wide receiver no one knows. So this offense will score points, especially against suspect defensive units.
Better luck next year
Every time I tuned in to watch the Hoosiers it seemed like they were getting screwed by everyone. Weird calls and even weirder replay decisions had poor coach Bill Lynch pulling his hair out. Now karma would say that Indiana deserves to see some big breaks in 2010, but this is Indiana football, and “deserve has got nothing to do with it.”
The schedule doesn’t get any easier, and in a sign of where this program ranks they’ve decided to play a scheduled home game against Penn State at FedEx Field in Maryland. They’ll cash a really big check thanks to all those Penn State crazies living in Arlington and up and down the Beltway.
These Hoosiers will be solid. A fleabag bowl is well within reach.
2010 Fantasy Outlook: Medium
It’ll all be about the matchups. Some teams will overwhelm the IU offensive front, but this unit will also make things exciting in Bloomington. Tandon Doss is the best fantasy option by far.
Iowa
2009 Record: 11-2
Returning Starters: 5 offense / 1 o-line, 7/8 defense
Who They Lose
The offensive line takes a huge hit, Tony Moeaki will definitely be missed, and some key cogs on the defensive side move on. However this is Iowa right? Replacing tight ends, beef up front and playmakers on defense is a Kirk Ferentz specialty.
Who Returns
I’m not as enamored with Ricky Stanzi as others. He possesses more talent than many in the Big Ten, but like former Hawkeye quarterback Drew Tate, he just makes too many mistakes. And for a team often content on playing field position, a quarterback that often manages contests and makes a few boneheaded throws every game is one to avoid on draft day.
On the other hand, Marvin McNutt is a stud, and another year learning the intricacies of the wide receiver position should see this former quarterback emerge as one of the conference’s best producers. And tight end Allen Reisner is poised to take over Moeaki’s role.
Too many running backs
Things looked pretty clear last summer. Jewel Hampton had been impressive spelling Shonn Greene in 2008, and he was all set to take over the lead role. And then he suffered a 2009-ending knee injury, thus heading into 2010 there is a bevy of backs capable of gaining yards in Iowa City.
Freshman Brandon Wegher was impressive in 2009, but Hampton, Jeff Brinson and Adam Robinson will all have their say.
2010 Fantasy Outlook: Medium
McNutt and the potential of Allen Reisner make the Hawkeyes worthy of fantasy consideration. And it seems like kicker Daniel Murray has been kicking since Chuck Long was holding, so he’ll likely be a top conference kicker, provided he can fend off Tress Mossbrucker.
Michigan
2009 Record: 5-7
Returning Starters: 6 offense / 3 o-line, 7 defense
Who They Lose
Brandon Minor and Carlos Brown finally move away from Ann Arbor, and wide receiver Greg Mathews departs as well. All were solid contributors at times, yet each paid the price for lackluster quarterback play over the last two seasons. Minor was a hard runner that couldn’t stay healthy, Brown was a speedster that couldn’t stay healthy, and Mathews signed on for a typical drop-back, pro-style attack but found himself doing a whole lot more blocking than he expected.
A horrific defense loses its two best players: one-man wrecking crew Brandon Graham and talented corner Donovan Warren. Some youngsters will need to grow up very fast.
Who Returns
Roy Roundtree and Martavious Odoms are two nice wide receivers and Kevin Koger is a talented tight end playing in the wrong system.
Freshman back Vincent Smith looked explosive at times, though the odds of this little guy making it through a Big Ten campaign unscathed are as good as hitting it big on those little parlay betting cards. I’m going to throw junior-to-be Michael Shaw out as the runner who’ll see the most carries, but they’ll be too much sharing for any UofM back to emerge as a fantasy factor.
So how about that quarterback spot?
This one is going to get interesting. Here is the cast:
Coach (played by Rich Rodriguez): A man with thousands calling for him to load up the truck and move back to West Virginny, now answering to an athletic director who didn’t hire him. Oh, and there are a whole bunch of new luxury suites that need to be filled, and winged helmets only go so far. Wins are expected at this place.
Returning quarterback (played by Tate Forcier): A youngster who showed great moxie and flashes early in the year, only to average about one turnover-per-minute as the team limped to a 1-7 Big Ten record. Oh, and his family makes Craig James look like an aloof, uninvolved parent.
Change of pace quarterback (played by Denard Robinson): A speedster that throws like me at a tailgate, one who will soon be told to go work with those wide receivers over there.
Stud recruit (played by Devin Gardner): A local product from lovely Inskter, MI. And if the Michigan State Final is any indication, he’s an enormous talent who could use a year or two to improve his accuracy and mechanics...and in a normal situation he’d be holding a clipboard every Saturday. Alas this is not a normal situation, so nothing short of a steel cage match to determine the starter in Ann Arbor would surprise us.
2010 Fantasy Outlook: I don’t know
There will be offensive moments when the Wolverine faithful swear national titles are on the horizon. The ground game will be rolling and all will be good. And then October will hit.
Whether the Wolverines can present a potent offense once the conference season arrives is the big question.
Michigan State
2009 Record: 6-7
Returning Starters: 6 offense / 2 O-Line, 7 Defense
Who They Lose
Once again the offensive line takes a hit due to graduation, and coach Mark Dantonio’s recruiting will be put to the test. Dantonio has recruited 13 offensive linemen the last three seasons, so there is no shortage of bodies. The question is can they perform?
The biggest loss offensively though is wide receiver Blair White. White, a former walk-on, was the Spartans’ steadiest receiver the last two years, catching 107 passes.
The November dorm fight has also taken its toll with at least four players set to transfer and two more dismissed from the team. Most notable are bruising running backs Glenn Winston and Ashton Leggett.
Who Returns
Wide receivers Mark Dell and B.J. Cunningham have been reinstated and barring any unexpected legal developments, they should be back next fall. This is good news for returning starter Kirk Cousins, who had few options to throw to in the Alamo Bowl.
As expected, Larry Caper and Edwin Baker came in and took over the running back position as true freshmen, though the pair only combined for 773 yards on 182 carries. Both of those numbers need to improve if the Spartans are to get over .500 in 2010. We have no doubt both will see far more carries in 2010.
Caper is the steady workhorse but we still like Baker’s explosive ability. Both could be fantasy options next season if the line plays well.
The Spartans greatest area of depth is at tight end where Charlie Gantt, Brian Linthicum and Dion Sims could all be fantasy studs. Obviously the problem for a fantasy owner is there are too many options and not enough footballs.
Keep an Eye on this Fall
Keshawn Martin. He needs to improve his pass catching ability and route running, but he has speed to be a difference maker. If Dell and Cunningham have any setbacks in their return, his stock goes up.
2010 Fantasy Outlook: Medium
We don’t see a sure-fire fantasy producer from the Spartans as they’ll spread the ball around. A lot of nice pieces, but no stars yet.
Minnesota
2009 Record: 6-7
Returning Starters: 9 offense / 5 o-line, pretty much everyone on defense
Who They Lose
We say goodbye to one of our favorites in wide receiver Eric Decker. One of the greatest players in Gopher history moves on, and solid tight end Nick Tow-Arnett joins him out the door (though fans of the Tow-Arnett clan will still get to see his two brothers in maroon and gold). Promising freshman Kevin Whaley also leaves the Twin Cities, and this was a mutual decision as the youngster showed an inability to make decisions that were for the greater good.
Who Returns
Adam Weber returns at quarterback, but it’s really time for the Gophers to get a looksie at talented quarterback/athlete MarQueis Gray. A few running backs, led by Duane Bennett, will also be back in 2010, but pinning Big Ten fantasy hopes on the Minny ground game would be a bad idea. Bennett and DeLeon Eskridge show flashes, but Barber III & Maroney they are not.
Brandon Green is a talented young receiver, but it remains to be seen if he and Troy Stoudermire can carry the passing attack.
So what are fantasy owners going to do with Minnesota?
For the most part it looks like this will be an offense to avoid; after all they can’t play Michigan State every week. The quarterback, whether it’s Weber or Gray, will be worth a shot in Big Ten leagues because the Gophers should be playing a whole lot of catch-up next season.
Coach Tim Brewster is Zook-north, so while it’s not a good idea to invest too much in the Gophers, it will at least be interesting to see what transpires.
2010 Fantasy Outlook: Low
This offense has the look of one that will not know what it wants to be in 2010. Will it want to ride the senior Weber for a shot at a lower-tier bowl, or will Brewster feel confident enough that he’ll be around in 2011 so that MarQueis Gray will be tossed the keys to the offense?
A starting back emerges and he’s a factor, and should Brandon Green blow up in spring he’s worth a shot as well.
Northwestern
2009 Record: 8-5
Returning Starters: 9 offense / 5 o-line, 6 defense
Who They Lose
The Wildcats don't lose much but the losses are significant. Quarterback Mike Kafka didn't disappoint, throwing for over 3400 yards, including 532 in the Outback Bowl against Auburn. Receiver Andrew Brewer caught 57 passes for 925 yards and nine touchdowns. They also lose their top receiver from 2009 in Zeke Markshausen. Markshausen caught nine passes against Syracuse in week three and never looked back. Markshausen finished the year with 91 catches for 858 yards and three scores.
To make matters worse they also lose their top defender in defensive end Corey Wootten. Wootten is likely a first or second round pick in the 2010 NFL Draft.
Who Returns
Freshman running back Arby Fields led the Wildcats in rushing with a modest 302 yards. With the entire offensive line returning, that number is sure to go up. However, the unit is going to need to show significant improvement in opening up holes if Fields is to become a fantasy factor.
Who Plays Quarterback?
Dan Persa. Like Kafka, C.J. Bacher, Brett Basanaz and Zac Kustok before him, Persa is a dual-threat quarterback. He might not have the arm of Kafka, but he could turn out to be a better runner.
2010 Fantasy Outlook: Low
Persa has been around a while and should step right in. The wide receiver corps is unproven and the offensive line needs to open bigger holes for the running backs before we invest fantasy-wise.
Ohio State
2009 Record: 11-2
Returning Starters: 9 offense / 4 o-line, 7 defense
Who They Lose
The defense takes the biggest hit with three of the front four moving on, including junior defensive end Thad Gibson. All is not lost on the defensive side of the ball, however, as the cupboard is never bare in Columbus.
On the offensive side, steady and dependable tight end Jake Ballard departs. We assume freshman wide receiver Duron Carter will return, but he must get his grades in order.
Who Returns
Assuming they return, Devon Torrence and Chimidi Chekwa form one of the best cornerback combinations in the Big Ten, if not the country, and this will make the Buckeyes defense a fantasy consideration once again.
Obviously all eyes will be on quarterback Terrelle Pryor next fall. We were critical of Pryor's seemingly lackluster performances during spells last season, but a knee injury may have been the culprit. Pryor has the ability to be an elite fantasy quarterback and is in a program that will provide him plenty of Heisman exposure. That includes getting out of the pocket more and utilizing his wicked stiff-arm.
Don't forget about wide receiver DeVier Posey. We were enamored by his speed coming out of high school in 2008, and he put it on display last year with three touchdown catches of over 50 yards. Posey finished the season with 60 catches for 828 yards and eight touchdowns, and he certainly has the ability to improve on those numbers in 2010.
How About a Running Back
Look for more running-back-by-committee in 2010. Brandon Saine and Daniel Herron each had over 140 carries last season and when you add in Jaamal Berry, carries will be spread out again in 2010.
2010 Fantasy Outlook: Medium to High
Pryor and Posey are BCS-only league caliber players and solid backups in all-120 leagues. Both are on the cusp of being regular starters in the all-120 leagues.
Penn State
2009 Record: 11-2
Returning Starters: 5 offense / 3 o-line, 4 defense
Who They Lose
We prematurely called for the Penn State Nittany Lions to take a step back last year due to losses in the front seven and at wide receiver. But quarterback Daryll Clark was sensational and kept things chugging along. Clark's loss can't be understated. Clark scored at least two touchdowns in every game except the loss to Ohio State and finished with 31 total touchdowns (seven rushing).
Unfortunately the hits don't stop with Clark. The defense loses linebackers Navarro Bowman, Josh Hull and Sean Lee, three who combined for 295 tackles last season. Things get a little better with starters Ollie Ogbu, Jack Crawford and part-time starter Eric Lattimore returning, but we are once again looking at heavy losses in the front seven.
So again, things don't look rosy for the Nittany Lions...but we were wrong about them last year.
Who Returns
2010 is sure to be Evan Royster and more Evan Royster. And when it's not Royster, it will be Stephfon Green. Yes, we expect Joe Pa to lean on his running backs in 2010.
Leading receivers Derek Moye and Graham Zug also return, but uncertainty at quarterback exists.
Who Plays Quarterback?
Kevin Newsome will get the first crack claiming the job this spring. Newsome is a big yet mobile quarterback that can do damage with his legs. He also had an added year of seasoning at Hargrave Military Academy before heading to Happy Valley last year. He's loaded with talent, but he will be pushed by super-frosh Robert Bolden. Bolden is a tall lanky quarterback with a strong arm.
2010 Fantasy Outlook: Medium
Despite the losses, you know JoePa will whip the defense into shape. Royster is a solid running back in any league, and if you enjoy prospect mining, Newsome and Bolden are little bits of gold.
Purdue
2009 Record: 5-7
Returning Starters: 6 offense / 2 o-line, 5 defense
Who They Lose
Joey Elliott was one of the Big Ten's best quarterbacks for stretches in 2009 and is going to be tough to replace. As is his one of his favorite targets, Aaron Valentin.
Who Returns
Keith Smith snagged 91 passes for 1100 yards and six scores last season, but the question is who will throw him the ball?
Running back Ralph Bolden started off hot with back-to-back 100+ yard and two touchdown games, but struggled to find the end zone during the middle of the season. With uncertainty at quarterback, the Boilermakers may lean on Bolden even more in 2010, making him one to keep an eye on. Of course his value is higher in BCS-only leagues.
Who Plays Quaterback?
Good question. Robert Marve, the former Miami quarterback, has been in West Lafayette and will be favored to win the gig. Redshirt freshman Caleb TerBush served as Elliott's backup last fall, but only saw action against Wisconsin. He'll compete as well, but our money is on Marve.
2010 Fantasy Outlook: Medium
Bolden and Smith are solid fantasy prospects, but we'll need to see how Marve looks before recommending others.
Wisconsin
2009 Record: 10-3
Returning Starters: 10 offense / 5 o-line, 6 defense
Who They Lose
Tight end Garrett Graham is a huge loss for the Badgers' offense and fantasy owners. Graham has been a steady producer the last three years with 121 catches for 1492 yards and 16 touchdowns.
On defense the Badgers lose pass rusher O'Brien Schoefild and his 17 sacks over the last two seasons.
Who Returns
There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic if you are a colelge football fan in Madison. Battering ram John Clay worked his way out of the Bret Bielema's doghouse in a hurry and finished the season with 1517 yards rushing and 18 touchdowns. Barring injury, we see no reason he can't match those totals in 2010. Especially with a veteran Big Ten road grading offensive line in front of him.
Scott Tolzien may be one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country. He's an accurate passer that will draw the attention from NFL scouts next season. Does that make him fantasy worthy? With a heavy emphasis on the running game, probably not, but his ability to make plays will keep the offense moving and Clay's numbers growing.
Potential Rankings Shocker
We love the prospects of tight end/H-back Lance Kendricks. Wisconsin is notorious for featuring their tight ends in the passing game and Kendricks has the ability to put up lofty numbers. With a weak tight end class on the horizon, don't be surprised to see Kendricks top our early 2010 player rankings next week.
If you are looking for a keeper league replacement for John Clay, take a look at Montee Ball
2010 Fantasy Outlook: Medium High
Clay and Kendricks are top fantasy prospects. Tolzien and receiver Nick Toon are ones to watch.