We take a brief break from the recruiting trail and look at what is in store from the Sun Belt Conference in 2010. Our breakdown of the incoming wide receivers will follow shortly.
The Sun Belt has long been a fantasy gold mine for owners that aren't afraid to draft players they will rarely see. They can light up the box score against less than stellar defenses, putting points on the board for your fantasy team. It starts with Middle Tennessee State's dual-threat quarterback Dwight Dasher. From there you have running back options in North Texas' Lance Dunbar and FAU's Alfred Morris. At wide receiver Troy's Jerrel Jernigan and FIU's T.Y. Hilton will begin to draw attention from NFL scouts. What they lack in size they make up for in speed.
Arkansas State
2009 Record: 4-8
Returning Starters: 7 offense / 5 o-line, 5 defense
Who They Lose
On most teams the loss of the top quarterback, running back, two receivers, tight end and kicker would be catastrophic. For the Indians it provides a chance to make a new start. Corey Leonard, Reggie Arnold, Brandon Thompkins, Jahbari McLennan, Trevor Gillott and Josh Arauco move on, thus fantasy owners may have a chance to nab a sleeper or two, and they'll get to face a whole bunch of bad defenses.
Arnold is the biggest loss. He gained 835 yards from scrimmage and scored 12 times in 2009. However a team that returns all five offensive linemen will allow for someone to emerge next season.
Who Returns
Quarterback Ryan Aplin showed some nice wheels while filling in for Leonard, but he still needs to mature a bit before emerging as a fantasy-worthy signal caller. Derek Lawson is a bruising back that has potential touchdown machine written all over him. He wasn't nearly as impressive in 2009 (56-244-2) as he was as a freshman (97-695-4) but this had much to do with carries. Look for Lawson to make a little more noise in 2010.
New offensive coordinator Clay Helton comes from Memphis and he's been an integral part of some pretty decent offenses. Thus wide receiver Taylor Stockemer could join Lawson as a fantasy consideration.
So About Those Five Returning Offensive Linemen...
We certainly place a fantasy premium on teams that return starters on the offensive line, and this is no different with regards to Arkansas State. However the 2009 squad was one led by a whole bunch of skill talent and struggled to a 95th ranking in total offense. So we can't give our top recommendation, but we feel pretty good that this team will make strides next season.
And yes...it does start up front.
2010 Fantasy Outlook: Likely a year away
Any fantasy factor for Arkansas State will be available on the waiver wire. There's no reason to invest a draft pick on any player, but if you are forced to nab someone then give Lawson a shot.
Florida Atlantic
2009 Record: 5-7
Returning Starters: 6 offense / 1 o-line, 9 defense
Who They Lose
The Rusty Smith era ended prematurely thanks to a shoulder injury suffered in week nine. Though this tough break should pay dividends in 2010; the Owls head into the season having an experienced starter in Jeff Van Camp. But Van Camp will need to make some new friends in the passing game.
Wide receivers Cortez Gent, Chris Bonner and tight ends Jason Harmon and Jamari Grant all move on, and with them go a combined 16 touchdown receptions. And while some young receivers and tight ends will need to step up, FAU will again have the services of a talented running back.
Who Returns
Alfred Morris comes back and should anchor the offensive attack. Morris touched the ball 270 times from scrimmage in 2009, and he gained nearly 1,500 yards and scored 13 times. While the offensive line does suffer heavy losses, Morris still appears a pretty good bet as a RB3.
Look for Lester Jean and Avery Holley to lead the air attack. Jean (38-501-4 in 2009) brings nice big-play potential, and Holley will be expected to take the next step.
The Owls have provided nice tight end play in recent years, and with the departures of both Harmon and Grant there is an opportunity heading into next season.
Who Plays Tight End in 2010?
A couple of intriguing prospects on the roster include young Nexon Dorvilus and Darian Williams, though we’re going to have to monitor spring practice to determine who will indeed emerge.
2010 Fantasy Outlook: Decent
Alfred Morris is worth a mid-round selection, and Jeff Van Camp is worth monitoring. Lester Jean could emerge as a real touchdown machine should no tight end target truly emerge.
The Owls tackle Michigan State in Detroit and travel to Austin, but the Sun Belt slate will provide plenty of opportunities for offensive fireworks.
Florida International
2009 Record: 3-9
Returning Starters: 7 offense / 3 o-line, 3 defense
Who They Lose
FIU is ready to put a tough season in the rearview mirror, and though they’ll lose their starting quarterback in Paul McCall, there is confidence that this will be a much-improved offense in 2010.
Who Returns
Darriet Perry and Kendall Berry should team to provide a nice ground attack, though shared carries makes each better suited as a free agent option should injuries befall the other.
T.Y. Hilton is a star that fought though injury woes yet still posted 57-632-5 in 2009. Greg Ellingson put up 34-528-4 last season, and he’s another wide receiver option, though he’s not quite in Hilton’s league.
At quarterback we expect Mississippi State transfer Wesley Carroll to take over the starting job. He’s talented and should make some noise in the Sun Belt, however at this point he’s solely a quarterback for owners to monitor.
Scott Satterfield
New OC Satterfield heads down I-75 from Toledo, where he was in charge of a pretty prolific offense last season. In fact the Rockets ranked 13 th in total offense, and they featured fantasy factors such as Aaron Opelt and DaJuane Collins. Satterfield will know how to get the most out of Wesley Carroll and a healthy T.Y. Hilton.
2010 Fantasy Outlook: Much Better
T.Y. Hilton is a special player. Wesley Carroll will have an immediate impact, as could incoming wide receiver Willis Wright. And if you’re looking for a sleeper special then take a shot at tight end Wayne Times, a former JUCO who could break out.
Avoid the running backs for now, but as mentioned earlier, an injury to one could see the other chap emerge as a serious fantasy factor.
Louisiana-Lafayette
2009 Record: 6-6
Returning Starters: 7 offense / 2 o-line, 6 defense
Who They Lose
The Cajuns lost running back Undrea Sails in mid-October, and he’ll be gone for good in 2010. Wide receiver Louis Lee will move on, and steady tight end Luke Aubrey will also depart; and that’s about it. This team will return much of its skill talent from a season ago.
Who Returns
Tight end Ladarius Green is the fantasy star on this squad. Coming off a 32-533-2 sophomore season spent backing up Luke Aubrey, look for Green to be the man in the passing attack. Otherwise we have improving Chris Masson at quarterback and the relatively unknown Yobes Walker at tailback.
Where to Draft Green?
We’ve lamented the diminishing role of tight ends across the country, thus those that do see regular passes should ride up the draft board. His final two outings of the season saw Green catch 12 balls for 250 yards and two scores. And with continued offensive growth we could see a huge 2010 campaign.
As a freshman he caught five touchdowns. Last year he slipped to two. Look for a big jump in 2010, thus we could be talking about a top-five national tight end.
2010 Fantasy Outlook: Blah
The offensive unit ranked 76th in total offense last season, and we should see some improvement, but fantasy excitement should not extend far beyond the tight end spot. But if you’re insistent on nabbing a sleeper from this squad, then incoming running back Aaron Spikes is intriguing. The one-time Texas Tech commit could make a quick splash.
Louisiana-Monroe
2009 Record: 6-6
Returning Starters: 6 offense / 3 o-line, 4 defense
Who They Lose
The Warhawks canned coach Charlie Weatherbie and hired Todd Berry, and Berry will take over an offense that will return some talent. They will be without LaGregory Sapp and Darrell McNeal, two solid receivers that will be difficult to replace
Who Returns
Frank Goodin “Plenty” returns for his senior season, and following a junior campaign with over 1250 yards and 13 scores, he has the look of a solid RB2. Quarterback Trey Revell is a decent and improving signal caller that has the ability to put up fantasy worthy numbers, and Luther Ambrose touches the ball enough times to make him a very interesting fantasy option.
Why I Like Luther
Ambrose carried the ball 35 times in 2009 and he caught 34 balls as a sophomore. And in a fantasy game where receiver touches can sometimes be spotty, any time a player is assured of touching it 3-4 times in the running game he becomes less of a risk. Don’t draft Ambrose, but keep an eye on him as a free agent option.
2010 Fantasy Outlook: One Man
Frank Goodin will be a fantasy horse in 2010. Revell could be a plug-in at QB2 if used spotted correctly.
Middle Tennessee
2009 Record: 10-3
Returning Starters: 8 offense / 4 o-line, 6 defense
Who They Lose
The wide receiver group takes a hit. Patrick Honeycutt, Desmond Gee and Chris McClover all move on, and with them so go 83 receptions and 11 touchdowns. But with a quarterback like Dwight Dasher returning, there will be receiving targets that do step up.
Who Returns
Dwight Dasher is a stud. The only returning quarterback to have posted more fantasy points in 2009 is Case Keenum, and when one considers that Dasher was banged up for a nice portion of last season the campaign appears even more impressive. He posted 36 touchdowns last year, and another year in “The Tony Franklin System” should see the senior signal caller improve upon his 14 picks.
The running back spot could see a boost with the return of Phillip Tanner. Tanner had 15 rushing touchdowns in 2008 but missed most of 2009 due to a knee injury.
Two Wide Receivers to Watch
In an offense such as this one has to take a look at the wide receivers. And both Malcolm Beyah and Sancho McDonald (no relation) bring a great deal of potential into 2010. McDonald has been the more productive to date, but Beyah has that something that says he could really emerge this fall.
2010 Fantasy Outlook: High
Only Dasher is a sure thing, but he’s about as sure as they’ll come. And wide receivers will emerge; it’s just a matter of who can step up in 2010. We like Beyah and McDonald, but spring ball will be interesting. The big question question will be whether Tanner can return to form and if so, will Dasher play nice and share?
North Texas
2009 Record: 2-10
Returning Starters: 9 offense / 4 o-line, 10 defense
Who They Lose
Running back Cam Montgomery moves on, but the come-from-nowhere emergence of Lance Dunbar softens this blow quite a bit.
Who Returns
Everyone returns, most notably Mr. Dunbar. He’ll team with quarterback Riley Dodge to give the Mean Green a fighting chance heading into 2010.
Dunbar touched the ball 228 times from scrimmage, and his season concluded with 1678 yards and 19 scores. And Dodge will look to remain healthy and save his dad’s job. He can start by cutting down on his interceptions.
Returning is a plethora of wide receivers, led by Jamaal Jackson and Mike Outlaw. But the most intriguing target out wide will be Sooner transfer Tyler Stratford, who should be an immediate factor if he sees the field in 2010.
This Has to be a Bad Sign
Mike Canales is the new offensive coordinator, coming over from South Florida. And he replaces Todd Ford, who struggled mightily in his role as OC and resigned to take a job…as a high school head coach.
Now I know that coaches often jump prior to receiving the shove, however it just doesn’t look good when a coach leaves a collegiate program in any capacity in order to coach at the high school level.
2010 Fantasy Outlook: There's Potential
This is a make or break year for coach Todd Dodge. A bunch of experience returns, and the offense has a clear go-to guy in Dunbar. Look for the Mean Green to make some Sun Belt noise behind Dunbar, and Riley Dodge will be much-improved. And with this improvement we’ll see the emergence of at least one wide receiver. My money is on Jackson.
Troy
2009 Record: 9-4
Returning Starters: 5 offense / 2 o-line, 3 defense
Who They Lose
We bid adieu to Bad Bad Levi Brown, and any time you lose a guy who winged it over 500 times for over 4200 yards and 23 scores you’ll feel it. Thankfully the Trojans aren’t in horrible shape at the quarterback spot.
Who Returns
Jamie Hampton is the clear favorite to emerge as the team’s starting quarterback. He missed all of 2009 with a knee injury, but he showed considerable promise during the 2008 campaign.
The running back spot looks like a two-headed monster. DuJuan Harris is the known commodity to most fantasy owners, however freshman Shawn Southward exploded on the scene, posting 602 yards rushing and a very impressive 12 scores. Each will see significant carries in 2010, but we’d lean towards Southward as the better draft day option.
At wide receiver it’s Jerrel Jernigan. Coming off a season where he touched it 111 times from scrimmage and posted 1367 yards and five scores, he’ll be a hot draft day commodity. We are a little concerned that the loss of Brown (the purer pocket passer) will lead to struggles on Jernigan’s end.
So Where Does Jernigan Go?
Ranking 10th among returning 2009 wide receiver producers, Jernigan will be a draft day commodity. And I’d advise you to let another owner draft him too highly. Sure, he plays in the Sun Belt. And sure he has Jamie Hampton returning to the starting role. However the Trojans welcome a new offensive coordinator, and need to replace a bunch of lost starters.
2010 Fantasy Outlook: Buyer Beware
There are a few factors working against Troy heading into 2010. Personnel losses and a coaching shift should cause a little concern. Southward is a solid keeper prospect, and as long as you don’t reach too far soon for Jernigan, he should pay dividends.
Western Kentucky
2009 Record: 0-12
Returning Starters: 10 offense / 5 o-line, 9 defense
Who They Lose
Jake Gaebler takes his 43 catches for 494 yards and four scores with him. Otherwise nearly everyone returns from an 0-12 team.
Additionally the Hilltoppers welcome Willie Taggart, who takes over the head coaching duties. The former WKU back comes home after an impressive stint at Stanford, and if his recruiting class is any indication then he’s off to a rip roaring beginning.
Who Returns
Returning starter Kawuan Jakes returns, but he’ll battle two new arrivals: freshman Brandon Doughty and JUCO Matt Pelesasa. The winner should improve on Jakes’ numbers from a season ago, but not enough to warrant fantasy consideration.
Rising junior Bobby Rainey returns after a 2009 that saw him gain over 1,000 yards from scrimmage and score seven times. He’s one worth watching.
Jack Doyle?
The freshman tight end caught 37 balls for 365 yards and a score in 2009. He’s a 6-5 target that should see plenty of looks in the new Taggart offense. Watch this youngster.
2010 Fantasy Outlook: Not Good…Right Now
Everything I’ve seen, read and heard about Willie Taggart has impressed me. This program is on the right track (insert nowhere to go but up jokes here) and there is plenty of talent on the way. This will be the last season where you’ll want to avoid Hilltoppers on draft day.