Six WAC offensive units (Nevada, Idaho, Boise, Utah State, Hawaii and Fresno) ranked among the nation's top twenty teams in total offense last season. And two (San Jose State and New Mexico State) ranked in the bottom five nationally. So this nine-team league is the epitome of feast or famine from a fantasy perspective. And with the arrival of Sonny Dykes /Tony Franklin to the team I haven't mentioned, Louisiana Tech, there's reason to believe that the Bulldogs will soon join the ranks of the nation's elite offenses. However some key personnel losses will likely see more WAC offenses drop off in the short-term, while the bad ones will remain bad.
Boise returns everyone, and Nevada returns a whole bunch of skill. They'll remain among the nation's top units, but Fresno (Ryan Mathews) and Idaho (DeMaundray Woolridge) lose two key cogs. And the uncertainty surrounding Robert Turbin casts doubt on how prolific of an offense we'll see at Utah State.
Hawaii should score more points and Louiana Tech will show flashes. However the two bottom feeders will remain down there, at least for now.
Boise State
2009 Record: 14-0, 8-0
Returning Starters: 11 offense / 5 o-line, 10 defense
Who They Lose
Nobody. A team that went 14-0 returns every offensive skill player.
Who Returns
Through two seasons Kellen Moore has thrown 69 touchdowns against 13 interceptions, with only three picks thrown during his legendary sophomore campaign in 2009. He'll return stronger and with more familiarity with the offense, and he'll be one of the nation's top fantasy quarterbacks...again.
It would appear that Doug Martin's days as a safety are over; however his seamless transition across the line of scrimmage is one indication of the young man's talent. The other is 129 carries for 765 yards and 15 touchdowns. Still, D.J. Harper will return from a knee injury that ended his 2009, so maybe Martin can play both ways this season.
Jeremy Avery will also return, so the Broncos will again boast one hell of a backfield. And I haven't even mentioned Matt Kaiserman.
At wide receivers the Broncos are, yes, deep and talented. In Austin Pettis and Titus Young Boise returns 142 catches for 1896 yards and 24 scores. And when it's all said and done in 2010 these two will again be one of the nation's top receiving duos. Rising junior tight end Kyle Efaw is coming of a 31-catch season, so Boise is in good shape here, too.
Even kicker Kyle Brotzman comes back.
What a Schedule!
Boise plays Virginia Tech at FedEx Field on Labor Day. Enough said, right?
Then the wide-open Wyoming Cowboys are up next, this one on the road. The Broncos then return home to tackle Jacquizz and James Rodgers and the Oregon State Beavers. October 9 sees the nonconference slate conclude with a visit from Toledo, a team that can post some points of its own.
2010 Fantasy Outlook: It's just not fair
Kellen Moore is a top national fantasy quarterback. Doug Martin, Jeremy Avery and D.J. Harper will each present breakout potential, though owners will have a tough time settling on one. Pettis and Young are starters is all sorts of leagues. This team is loaded.
Nevada
2009 Record: 8-5, 7-1
Returning Starters: 9 offense /4 o-line , 7 defense
Who They Lose
Not much other than Luke Lippincott. Every skill starter returns from the nation's #2 rated offense. This should be fun.
Who Returns
In Colin Kaepernick the Wolfpack return one of the nation's top signal callers, one who has accounted for 75 scores over the past two seasons. There has been off-season talk of Nevada working on Kaepernick's passing, but I don't care if the dude starts throwing the ball with his feet (which I guess would be kicking it) as long as he continues to average about 37 scores per. Senior back Vai Taua has accounted for about 3200 yards and 30 scores over the last two seasons, so clearly he has this running back thing down. However there is a bit of concern about his status for 2010, as academic issues kept him from partaking in the Hawaii Bowl fun. Our guess is that Taua gets his act together, but one never knows.
Look for Mike Ball to become the third monster in the Wolfpack three-headed ground attack. Lippincott's departure allows for someone to emerge, and Ball is coming off a redshirt freshman campaign that saw him score six touchdowns on only 24 touches from scrimmage.
Three top receiving targets, Brandon Wimberly, Chris Wellington and tight end Virgil Green are all back as well. This trio combined for only 11 scores last year, but we're a bit more optimistic about next season.
Brandon Wimberly
Nevada was the #2 offense in the country last season, and this is incredible considering they were the 107th ranked passing attack. Any improvement in the passing attack should see Wimberly push towards ten scores in 2010. He's young, talented and he'll get to play against a whole bunch of bad defenses.
2010 Fantasy Outlook: Loaded
Kaepernick, Taua and Wimberly are all very draftable. Mike Ball could be a huge breakout star, and Virgil Green has shown an affinity for celebrations. It'll be fun to see this team tackle Cal and BYU, and then light up its conference foes.
Fresno State
2009 Record: 8-5, 6-2
Returning Starters: 7 offense / 3 o-line , 8 defense
Who They Lose
Running backs Ryan Mathews and Lonyae Miller are two huge losses. The explosive Mathews gained 1930 yards from scrimmage and scored 18 times in 2009. Mathews answered all questions, missing only one game and carrying the ball more than 19 times in ten separate contests. Mathews scored 39 times in three years as a Bulldog, and coach Pat Hill will struggle to replace such a dynamic threat.
Miller only gained 354 yards on 68 carries while scoring four times last season. In light of Mathews' departure Miller won't leave a huge void, however, it sure would be nice to have the veteran back for one more.
Wide receivers Seyi Ajirotutu, Chastin West and Marlon Moore all move on, though rising senior Jamel Hamler appears capable of emerging as the top threat out wide. The other wide receiver spots are wide open.
Who Returns
Look for Ryan Colburn to again emerge as the starting quarterback, and while Colburn does present some potential, David Carr he is not. Ebahn Feathers may or may not remain a quarterback, and Derek Carr appears a year away. Thus this show should belong to Colburn.
Diminutive Robbie Rouse should be the starting tailback, and he'll certainly be a chic sleeper pick of many. Rouse has shown plenty of ability in limited duty (82-479-4) as a frosh, and he'll get first crack at replacing Mathews.
Potential Emergence?
Rising sophomore wide receiver Rashad Evans has the look of a player that could make some noise in 2010.
2010 Fantasy Outlook: Not too pretty
Ryan Mathews was the offense last season, and the impact of his departure cannot be overstated. Rouse is certainly worthy of a late-round selection, but owners should not pin hopes on this youngster. Colburn's development could mean a big year for Jamel Hamler, but he's one to watch for awhile rather than spending a draft selection.
Idaho
2009 Record: 8-5, 4-4
Returning Starters: 5 offense / 1 o-line , 9 defense
Who They Lose
It was an incredible year for Idaho, one capped by a thrilling 43-42 win over Bowling Green in the bowl season's most exciting contest. However Idaho coach Robb Akey (the dude that sounds like Sargent Slaughter) knows that his offense has a little reloading to do. The Vandals say goodbye to DeMaundray Woolridge, a refugee from Washington State who made the most of his senior season. Woolridge gained around 1,000 yards from scrimmage, however he posted 18 scores. That kind of production is hard to replace.
Also departing is wide receiver Max Komar, a talented pass catcher who nabbed 63 balls for 1,052 yards and 11 scores in 2009.
Who Returns
Nathan Enderle is back at quarterback. He passed for nearly 3,000 yards and 22 scores last season, though with a young offense it's difficult to see Enderle repeating these numbers.
Princeton McCarty appears the clear favorite to emerge as the starting running back, but he'll have to fend off Deonte Jackson. McCarty runs track, and he'll need to run pretty fast to help out an offensive line that will be in rebuild mode.
Fellow track runner Maurice Shaw will return for his senior season at wide receiver, and he's coming off two nice performances (against Utah State and in the bowl win) to cap his junior campaign.
What About Deonte Jackson?
Jackson gained 1,175 yards and scored seven times as a freshman. Then he ran for 696 yards and three scores in 2008. This was followed up by 387 yards and two scores last season. Not surprisingly, we've seen Jackson's carries go from 240 to 161 and then 87 during that time span. Now, with the departure of Woolridge it'll be interesting to see if Jackson can return to his redshirt freshman form.
2010 Fantasy Outlook: Too many holes
No doubt that Idaho was a great story last year, but the offensive losses will be too much to overcome in 2010. Enderle will struggle to find time to throw, and the backs will not find room to roam as easily.
Hawaii
2009 Record: 6-7, 3-5
Returning Starters: 6 offense / 2 o-line, 7 defense
Who They Lose
Greg Alexander's senior season didn't go as planned; his career-ending knee injury in early October was especially devastating because he was off to such a white-hot start, throwing for 304, 453 and 477 yards in his first three contests. Though if there was some kind of silver lining (from a 2010 team perspective) it was the emergence of former walk-on Bryant Moniz.
Running back Leon Wright-Jackson also moves on, and while he may not have had the statistical impact many hoped for from the Nebraska transfer, Wright-Jackson (74-554-7 as a senior) will be missed.
The status of Malcolm Lane, who missed all of 2009 due to academic issues, remains in doubt. He was suspended again this February, and he may miss spring ball.
Who Returns
Bryant Moniz returns, and considerable growth is anticipated; he's not the gunslinger of Alexander, but he'll have some nice outings at home when the opponent is just right. Alex Green appears the favorite to start at running back, and the former JUCO from Portland appears capable of leading the Warriors' ground game, though his fantasy prospects are limited.
The Warriors return considerable depth at wide receiver. Greg Salas (106-1590-8) leads a very nice group that includes Kealoha Pilares (66-690-4), Rodney Bradley (31-575-5 in a season cut short by a fibula injury in mid-October), Jovonte Taylor and Royce Pollard.
Where to Draft Salas?
There's no doubt that Greg Salas will be a top fantasy selection, but his draft position should be up for a little debate. Though Salas had huge reception games later in the season, four of his touchdowns were nabbed while Alexander was still winging it. Granted Salas did deal with a strained foot that hampered him down the stretch, but we just don't have the faith in Moniz that we did Alexander. There is some definite wide receiver talent on The Island, and it's difficult to see Salas catching 106 balls again.
2010 Fantasy Outlook: Not bad
This is still Hawaii, and it appears that coach Greg McMackin has survived a rough start and some unfortunate comments. Moniz will be better, and Salas should be a WR2 in most leagues. However don't go to sleep on Bradley (appears on schedule with recovery) or the other wide receivers. Camp reports will be pivotal.
Louisiana Tech
2009 Record: 4-8, 3-5
Returning Starters: 7 offense / 4 o-line , 5 defense
Who They Lose
Coach Derek Dooley, running back Daniel Porter and tight end Dennis Morris all leave. While Dooley is a terrific coach who will do great things at Tennessee, the losses of Porter (211-1132-11) and especially Morris (38-623-12) sting from a fantasy perspective. However with new coach Sonny Dykes and offensive coordinator Tony Franklin coming to Ruston, LA., there are plenty of reasons for excitement.
Who Returns
A new coach and OC with a new system means it's not as much about who returns, but more about who will win the starting jobs. The February arrest of starting quarterback Ross Jenkins muddies the picture a little bit. Jenkins threw for about 2,100 yards last season while accounting for 21 scores against only five picks. He will participate in spring ball, though if Jenkins struggles either on or off the field then Colby Cameron could assume the starting role.
The wide receiver spot brings a great deal of fantasy potential, and Phillip Livas is the top returner. Livas struggled with nagging injuries last year, and it's reasonable to expect him to surpass his numbers from 2008 (43 catches for 607 yards and four scores from scrimmage) with ease in 2010.
Every other wide receiver, especially Cruz Williams, will be one to watch during spring and fall camp.
Taylor Burch
Anytime a new coach recruits a quarterback he's one to watch; when that coach is Sonny Dykes the new quarterback is a player to draft and file away. Burch is a Rivals three-star quarterback who didn't have offers from a bunch of top programs, but that doesn't matter. Dykes saw fit to offer the young man a schollie, so Burch is a name to remember.
2010 Fantasy Outlook: Inconsistent
The 2010 version of the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs will look unstoppable one week and clueless the next. Switching to a wide-open system is never easy, so there will be growing pains. But there's no reason to doubt Dykes and Franklin. In a recent article with TheNewsStar.com the new head man said, "We don't have any starters right now. Everything is going to be wide open."
Sounds good to us.
Utah State
2009 Record: 4-8, 3-5
Returning Starters: 7 offense / 3 o-line, 7 defense
Who They Lose
The off-season ACL injury to Robert Turbin has gone and screwed everything up. An offense that ranked 12th nationally in 2009 suddenly isn't as impressive. At this point it looks like Turbin could return early in the season, however if he can't make it back then he could earn a 6th season and return in 2011.
Wide receiver Xavier Bowman will move on following 23 catches for 346 yards and a team-high four touchdown receptions.
Who Returns
With Turbin out everything now falls on quarterback Diondre Borel. While the senior-to-be is certainly capable of making plays (23 touchdowns against four interceptions last year) the loss of a consistent run threat will allow defenses to really tee off. Borel will look to Stanley Morrison, a speedster coming off 33 catches for 616 yards and three scores in 2009.
The likely replacement for Turbin appears to be Michael Smith, a former JUCO who showed considerable skill last season. He not only carried the ball 46 times for 290 yards and four scores, but he caught 19 passes for 220 yards and two scores as well.
If Turbin Doesn't Make it Back...
Then Michael Smith could be a very nice late-round shot in the dark.
2010 Fantasy Outlook: A bunch of spot starters
Utah State will play enough bad offenses to make Borel, the starting tailback and Stanley Morrison worth a shot in larger leagues.
New Mexico State
2009 Record: 3-10, 1-7
Returning Starters: 8 offense / 3 o-line, 7 defense
Who They Lose
NMSU loses very few impact offensive players. Marquell Colston, Tonny Glynn and Marcus Anderson all had their moments in 2009, but the Aggies are ready to move forward.
Who Returns
Running back Seth Smith is a solid back. He carried the ball 246 times for 1016 yards. Amazingly Smith could only find the end zone one time.
The fact that no wide receiver caught more than 28 balls in 2009 makes it clear why this was the worst offense in the country in 2009.
Kenny Turner
Tuner is a one-time top recruit...back in 2002. He then went away for five years on a serious burglary charge, and now, following a JUCO stint, has landed at New Mexico State. Turner, based on the story alone, is worth monitoring.
2010 Fantasy Outlook: It has to be better.
We've written very little about the Aggies because, well, they were the worst offense in the country in 2009. So even if they climb 20 spots they'll still be a team to avoid on draft day. The quarterbacks last year combined to throw five touchdowns and 17 interceptions.
There's nowhere to go but up...
San Jose State
2009 Record: 2-10, 1-7
Returning Starters: 8 offense / 3 o-line, 7 defense
Who They Lose
It was nice to see wide receiver Kevin Jurovich return from a 2008 lost to mono. Jurovich caught 61 balls for 805 yards and one score last season. He is the only significant loss, other than coach Dick Tomey, who was shown the door following a 2-10 campaign. Former Duke assistant Mike MacIntyre takes over.
Who Returns
We expect Jordan La Secla to serve as starting quarterback, and he'll provide a stopgap while some youngsters develop. At tailback look for MacIntyre to lean on returning running back Lamon Muldrow, who saw 133 carries while gaining 597 yards and scoring three times in 2009.
Former JUCO wide receiver Marquis Avery is the top returner out wide after hauling in 42 catches for 459 yards and six scores last year.
Give Us Something Here...
I think tight end Ryan Otten could be a nice option. There you go.
2010 Fantasy Outlook: No