SEC West: 2008 Look Ahead

Brian McDonald
Senior Editor
January 19, 2008
It will not be the same watching games in the SEC now that Darren and Felix have decided to pursue the riches of the National Football League. In a conference that I have often condemned as having creativity on par with a preseason NFL tilt, the recent seasons with Darren McFadden have been a breath of fresh air, and here’s hoping that the addition of Bobby Petrino, without the subtraction of Houston Nutt from the conference, will lead to even more zany play calling. These teams will have to account for the bore-us-to-tears styles that will be employed by Sly Croom’s Mississippi State Bulldogs and Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide. Auburn is following the cool kids by going almost exclusively to a spread attack and LSU finds no reason whatsoever to change its formula. Defections and changes, both from a player and coaching perspective, make the 2008 season in the SEC West one to anticipate with great curiosity. There is no Tim Tebow talent on the west side, but Ryan Perrilloux is certainly one that can move to the second spot on the SEC draft board. Before we move forward, here’s a look at the All-SEC fantasy team of 2007. An asterisk notes those players that have either exhausted their eligibility (*) or have decided to forego their remaining years on campus (**). 2007 All SEC Fantasy Team (total fantasy points prior to week 14) QB: Tim Tebow 454.26 RB: Darren McFadden* 250.03 RB: Arian Foster 176.06 WR: Percy Harvin 140.00 WR: Steve Johnson 127.86 TE: Cornelius Ingram 74.73 K: Colt David 133.00 D: LSU Tigers Alabama Will be missed next year: DJ Hall and his 67-1005-6 senior campaign will be hard to replace. So will his receiving cohort Keith Brown, who caught a few touchdowns down the stretch. However the majority of the Alabama skill position players return, and the talent is present to soften the blow of graduation. It’s hard to gauge what Major Applewhite’s departure will mean to the Crimson Tide. Clearly John Parker Wilson didn’t show the progression that many had anticipated, however Applewhite is very highly regarded. Major’s return to Texas is likely part desire to return to alma mater, and part it’s really hard to work for Nick Saban, unless you’re named Bobby Williams. Fantasy Star of 2008: On the rocks or blended? Rare or medium-rare? Shaken or stirred? Coffee or Grant? Add the Alabama running game and its fantasy impact to the above list of age-old dilemmas. Running back Terry Grant clearly has the upper hand statistically over Glen Coffee because Grant hasn’t gotten into trouble, however both will likely battle for the top spot on the running back depth chart. Coffee is the better back, and provided he can stay on the field, he should be the number one next season. He’ll split carries with Grant, but Coffee is the likely fantasy star from this offensive unit. That is unless a incoming freshman snags the job. Saban has apparenly been telling recruits he is not happy with the play at running back. Certainly John Parker Wilson will look to take considerable strides and he may push 30 scores in 2008, however he’ll need to cut down on his picks in order to kekep St. Nick from yanking him at some point. If this happens remember (and it shouldn’t be hard to forget) the name Star Jackson. Fantasy sleeper of 2008: Coach Saban is recruiting like a madman, so we’re certain that there are players ready to explode onto the scene, and it’s likely a receiver from the class of 2007 will make an impact next season. The hard part is determining which one or two will take the receptions left behind by DJ Hall and Keith Brown, so we’ll just play it safe. Mike McCoy and Nikita Stover are the likely choices to start for the Tide at wide receiver in 2008. Each brings a little something to the table, and each should put up decent numbers. If super recruit Julio Jones chooses the Tide over his other suitors, he immediately becomes the #1 Bama WR option. He’s reported to be that good. 2008 Fantasy Outlook: It’s not very promising. A fantasy team built around the Alabama Crimson Tide will not do well. They’re going to be improved, and they likely won’t have the mind-numbing losses of 2007 next year. Still, this is a team that’s build around defense and field-position. This will change as Saban’s recruits begin to earn his trust, yet for now stay clear of any early round selections spent on Bama skill players. Arkansas Will be missed next year: How about 34 touchdowns and about 3500 yards from scrimmage? The early departures of both Darren McFadden and Felix Jones leave gaping holes for fantasy owners. Jones’ owners will always wonder what may have been in 2008. A season with McFadden-like carries would’ve led to a McFadden-like senior season. Still, as a firm believer that a running back only has so many hits in him, I certainly can’t fault either for pursuing the life provided by first round NFL status. However as a college gridiron connoisseur I’m bummed these talents will be not be electrifying us on Saturdays in 2008. Fantasy Star of 2008: Michael Smith is a talented back, but like Noel Devine at WVU, there is legitimate concern as to Smith’s ability to withstand the pounding. Granted, Petrino will likely mix in a few other backs (maybe highly-touted De’Anthony Curtis, not to be confused with actor De’Tony Curtis). Brandon Barnett also received 24 carries in 2007, so he’ll likely be in the picture. Still we like Smith to see the majority of carries in 2008. This battle is certianly one to watch this spring. Fantasy sleeper of 2008: Petrino’s arrival means that Arkansas wide receivers suddenly become viable fantasy options. It would’ve been interesting to see Marcus Monk work in a Petrino offense, and it’s a shame that Monk’s senior season turned out to be such an injury nightmare. Determining who will step up and catch Casey Dick’s passes is a tough chore, however in addition to junior tight end Andrew Davie, we’ll go with Crosby Tuck, a young man who displayed big-play potential prior to his season-ending elbow injury in the loss to Kentucky. Tuck displayed an impressive ability to find the endzone, and this valuable talent makes him one to watch in 08. 2008 Team Fantasy Outlook: This will be an interesting team on many levels. The losses of McFadden and Jones will make this team one that will likely be ignored on draft day. It will be a mistake to underestimate an offensive unit that was recruited by Houston Nutt and will be coached by Bobby Petrino. Spring ball will be pivotal as we often see a new coach fall in love with a player forgotten (see Devin Thomas at MSU) by the previous regime. To say Casey Dick has struggled would be an understatement but he could surprise, and Michael Smith will likely come out of the gate flying, although Smith may only be an early season play, due to concerns about his durability. We are intrigued by this unit’s potential, yet we’re taking a wait-and-see in 2008. Auburn Will be missed in 2008: Quarterback Brandon Cox will be missed in 2008, however the extent that his loss will be felt diminished considerably while watching Kodi Burns lead the squad to its bowl victory over Clemson. Suddenly Cox’s 11 touchdowns against 13 picks seem a lot worse than that…in other words, this appears to be a case where loyalty to a senior can be taken too far. Cox, a solid leader, brought those oft-mentioned intangibles to the Auburn huddle, and until we or anyone else can find a way to incorporate “leadership” into your college fantasy scoring, a team of gutsy players will leave you wanting a little more. Fantasy star in 2008: Now we’re not going to deem Kodi Burns a top-ten quarterback. The sophomore will have moments of brilliance, but he’ll also look like a deer in headlights against certain SEC foes. However, unlike Cox, Burns at least provides the potential for weekly explosions, and there can be no doubt that he’ll see significant improvement in time for the Tigers’ season opener against Louisiana-Monroe. It’s a revolving quarterback door in Auburn as senior Blake Field is transferring to Valdosta State, and there are two new intriguing prospects in Deron Furr (should he honor his verbal) and JUCO Chris Todd. Fantasy sleeper of 2008: A fantasy sleeper will emerge from the tailback spot if Ben Tate or Mario Fannin can separate and take hold of the #1 job. At this point it’s hard to see this happening, however we could see a Davis-Spiller or Caulcrick-ringer situation at Auburn, and both Tate and Fannin will be worthy of mid-round selections, even if it’s in anticipation of injury. Wide receivers Rodgeriqus Smith and Montez Billings have become even more intriguing in this new offensive scheme. 2008 Fantasy Outlook: Like nearly every other single college football program, Auburn is going all in on the spread offense, and OC Tony Franklin has said he anticipates attrition. This makes one wonder if some teams incorporate the spread to push some malcontents out the door. The Auburn defense will, once again, be one to nab. Still history indicates that without a clear-cut number one running back, Auburn may be another SEC West squad to avoid in the early rounds. LSU Will be missed in 2008: The heart and soul of another LSU national title moves on, and Matt Flynn, Jacob Hester and Early Doucet will go down in the annals of Tigers’ football as three blood and guts leaders. Each, most notably Jacob Hester from a fantasy perspective, will be missed. Hester quietly put up 13 scores on the season, and the workhorse will be hard to replace. Fortunately for LSU fans, they know how to recruit a little bit in Baton Rouge, and as these three champions move on, there is ample talent left in the stable. Fantasy Star of 2008: Ryan Perrilloux is a legitimate college fantasy football quarterback, and provided he can avoid the off-season spotlight, he’ll be in for a big, big season. Perriloux can make all the throws, and his size and mobility make him a great goal-line threat, providing the ability for a handful of rushing scores. Many questioned why Perrilloux was standing on the sidelines for much of the season…and then Matt Flynn was hoisting a nice trophy. Perrilloux has watched Russell and Flynn, and now it’s time for the all-everything high school senior to take over, and we have little doubt that he’ll put up a monster season. Fantasy Sleeper of 2008: It took a while but Terrance Tolliver displayed the type of ability that was expected of him. Brandon LaFell was the most productive of the young receivers. But senior Demetrius Byrd is the receiver that has us most excited. High school struggles forced Byrd to take a detour on his way to Baton Rouge, and it wasn’t until Doucet’s injury difficulties that he was able to make an impact. Once in the lineup Byrd didn’t look back, and this JUCO transfer will likely be Ryan Perrilloux’s go-to guy, and this will mean big fantasy numbers for this talented player surrounded by talent. Other owners will be all over little Trindon Holliday. Don’t fall for it. He’s fun to watch, and he’ll bust some big plays, but he’ll also you leave you cursing his name when he’s shut down for a month at a time. 2008 Fantasy Outlook: Outlook is good, however the defensive unit will experience a hit. A defense doesn’t lose Glen Dorsey and most of its defensive backfield and not feel the effects. The defense will need time to grow, thankfully the Tigers open with North Texas and Troy so some kinks can be worked out. This unit will improve with the likes of DT Ricky Jean-Francois and a plethora of young talent, so even if LSU isn’t our number one defensive unit, they likely won’t be far behind. The offensive talent looks to be much more explosive, and this big-play potential will hinge on the expected year from Ryan Perrilloux. Unlike Flynn he’ll be expected to win games, and this makes LSU receivers even more enticing than in years past. Mississippi Rebels Will be missed next year: Running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis just couldn’t buy a break. First, he signed with a bad Indiana team out of high school, and then he transferred. However he transferred to a bad Ole Miss team. Then, in his senior season, his old team finally went to a bowl game, and after his eligibility at his new school had been exhausted, his alma mater hired a coach who’ll likely take advantage of the underrated talent currently matriculating in Oxford. Despite his poor choice in football programs, Green-Ellis put together a nice career, and this was capped by a 230-1136-6 senior season. BenJarvus was a steady force for an Ole Miss team that just couldn’t get over the hump. Close against Florida, Alabama and Mississippi State wasn’t enough to save Eddie O’s gig, and now they’ve brought in a Nutt to turn things around, and he’ll have to do it with a new workhorse on the ground. Fantasy Star of 2008: Remember when some saw Javon Snead as the Longhorn quarterback of the future? Then Colt McCoy began throwing touchdowns. Snead or Ole Miss haven’t shown enough to warrant a great deal of hype, however Nutt’s arrival along with new offensive coordinator Kent Austin provides something that hasn’t been emanating from Oxford for a while, and this is a legitimate reason for optimism. A 38-716-6 season from wide receiver Mike Wallace, plus talk of Ole Miss winging it around a bit more, make this senior-to-be a likely big producer in SEC leagues, and a potential sleeper nationally. Wallace will be the go-to guy in a passing game that will receive increased emphasis in the playbook. He’s one to watch. Snead and Wallace may be the Ole Miss fantasy stars of 2008, but we’re not predicting huge things from Snead. Steady improvement and the occasional big play will provide hope, however the fact that Wallace will be on the receiving end of most of those big plays makes him a top conference wideout. Fantasy sleeper of 2008: RB Cordera Eason looks to fill the void left by Green-Ellis’ graduation, and based on talent alone, he’s already ahead of the game. Nutt and Kent Austin will run the ball to set up the passing game, and Eason should emerge as the starter. Eason was a top Mississippi recruit, and he’ll be one to nab in the later rounds. 2008 Team Fantasy Outlook: With the coaching change Ole Miss suddenly becomes a team worthy of fantasy consideration. They’ll still take their lumps against the upper-echelon SEC teams, but there is suddenly a reason to think that some big offensive outputs may be on the horizon. Ole Miss is likely about three years away from making a move towards SEC respectability, but names like Snead, Wallace and Eason should receive serious SEC-only consideration from owners. Mississippi State Bulldogs Will be missed in 2008: WR Tony Burks takes his 33-444-3 2007 season and moves on. He leaves Starkville as a steady receiver who played a role in the revival under Sly Croom. He’s certainly replaceable, both on the field and on any fantasy roster that he called home. Michael Henig’s injury early in the season likely had a negative impact on Burk’s numbers, however Henig will return in 2008 to find that there are a couple of receivers present to soften the blow of Burks’ graduation. Fantasy star in 2008: Running back Anthony Dixon will look to build upon a season that saw him amass over 1300 yards and 16 scores. This will be a tall order, however with the Bulldogs’ conservative offensive style, Dixon will certainly not be lacking for carries. The fact that he is the clear-cut offensive star makes Dixon likely the lone Mississippi State footballer worthy of serious fantasy consideration. Fantasy sleeper of 2008: The last time most saw Michael Henig he was in the process of tossing six interceptions to LSU defenders as the Tigers rolled in last season’s opener. If poor performances build character, then Henig should have an ample supply in 2008. His season cut short in week three, the Bulldogs will likely see an offensive boost…if Henig can finally stay healthy. There is no way any owner, even one that plays in a SEC-only league, should expect a big season out of the senior signal caller. He’ll be forgotten due to his injury-plagued career, and he may just provide a spark to an owner desperate at some point next season. Just make sure that your need for Henig comes when the Bulldogs battle the likes of Louisiana Tech, Southeastern Louisiana and Middle Tennessee State, because the rest of the schedule is a daunting gauntlet. 2008 Fantasy Outlook: Sylvester Croom’s boys win with defense, defense and defense. This field position style leads to a very conservative offensive style, and once Anthony Dixon goes off the board, it’ll be a long time before Mississippi State should even be mentioned, and then this selection should only be their defensive unit as a backup consideration. Mississippi State, with wins over Auburn and Alabama, was a great story in 2007. Don’t let memories of that epic 10-3 Liberty Bowl win over Central Florida cloud your judgement.

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