Big Twelve North: 2008 Look Ahead

Brian McDonald
Senior Editor
January 27, 2008
Since when did the Big Twelve supplant the Pac-Ten as the locale for quarterbacking fantasy stars? Not only did the Big Twelve have a ton of fantasy leaders in 2007, but the conference once known for the wishbone, conservative offenses and defensive struggles will have an inordinate number of fantasy stars returning in 2008, and nowhere is this more the case than at the field general spot. The top ten (eleven actually, but ten sounds better) fantasy quarterbacks in the conference return in 2008. While this position will likely see a great number of protected players, there will be large shoes to fill with the departures of the majority of running and receiving leaders. If Tony Temple isn’t granted an extra year the conference will look to replace six of its top ten running back producers next season, and it’ll be interesting to see what happens to Jorvorskie Lane, whom new Texas A & M coach Mike Sherman has gone on record as saying needs to lose a little weight. Last we saw Jorvorskie he was in tears over not getting the ball, so this one will be interesting. All everything wide receivers Mike Crabtree and Jeremy Maclin will return, however they’re joined by only Texas Tech’s Eric Morris and Oklahoma’s Juaquin Iglesias as top ten 2007 conference producers who’ll continue to matriculate in 2008. The rest are moving on, either by choice or because it’s simply time to enter the post-college world. The 2008 Big Twelve season will continue to see the transformation from run-happy conference to wing it all over the place. Jay Norvell’s arrival in Norman is one of many signs that point to this passing trend being more than a, uh, passing trend. Before we move forward, here’s a look at the All-Big Twelve fantasy team of 2007. An asterisk notes those players that have either exhausted their eligibility (*) or have decided to forego their remaining years on campus (**). 2007 All Big Twelve Fantasy Team (total fantasy points prior to week 14) QB: Graham Harrell 468.10 RB: Jamaal Charles** 229.20 RB: Marlon Lucky 193.60 WR: Michael Crabtree 262.80 WR: Jordy Nelson* 198.10 TE: Martin Rucker* 106.93 K: Jeff Wolfert 130.00 D: Kansas Jayhawks Colorado Will be missed next year: Hugh Charles ended his senior season in style, running for 169 yards and three scores as the Buffaloes ran all over Nebraska and bid adieu to Bill Callahan. Charles was a steadying force as Colorado began to make its way back in 2007. Still Charles’ career was often a case of “what might have been” as he seemed unwilling to really get dirty at times. The reason he’ll be missed next year isn’t really due to the loss of talent; rather it’s the belief that Colorado will not have a clear-cut number one back for owners to utilize. Fantasy Star of 2008: If we want to talk about players expected to make a huge leap then Cody Hawkins must be near the top of the list. While it’s fun to talk nepotism and being “Daddy’s boy” it’s also fun to consider the possibilities once Hawkins cuts down on those on-field youthful indiscretions and fully grasps the system. Hawkins is far from imposing. He stands about 5’10” and is about 185 lbs. He doesn’t have the strongest arm, and he’s not very mobile. However like, I don’t know, a Ty Detmer, he’s a smart kid playing in a system that will allow him to shine. By no means am I predicting a Heisman-type campaign in Cody’s future, but I am predicting a couple of huge seasons, the first of which may be in 2008. Hawkins surpassed 3000 yards along with 25 scores during his 2007 on-the-job redshirt freshman campaign. Certainly the 17 picks were a part of the anticipated growing pains, and we expect those to be cut considerably. Another off-season of hard work along with the quest for father’s approval may see Cody Hawkins as a top-ten fantasy quarterback when the 2008 season is complete. Fantasy sleeper of 2008: Here’s where it gets interesting. Last February Colorado signed the top JUCO back in P.T Gates. Gates will not be enrolled for spring classes, and it’s appearing that Gates may have to work his tail off this summer to have any chance of seeing the field this fall. So it’s looking more and more unlikely that Gates will ever take a handoff in Boulder. If he does, then we could have a superstar. However combining his grade/transcript issues with the fact that he is a JUCO makes us a bit pessimistic. In fact, I’ll eat this article if Gates takes a snap. The Buffaloes are also in on Darrell Scott, whom many have as the number one back in the country, however it’ll be hard to pry him from Texas, among others. Ray Polk, another incoming freshman, may make some noise as well. Likely though, sophomores Demetrius Sumler and Brian Lockridge will share the running back gig. One becomes the clear back and he becomes a clear national sleeper. If pressed, we’ll pick Sumler. Looking for this year’s potential CFFinsider.com top-ten sleeper in 2008? Look no further than redshirt wide receiver Markques Simas, a top-flight recruit out of Cali in 2007. He could explode onto the national scene. 2008 Fantasy Outlook: Rising. Cody Hawkins is going to have a big year and he’ll bring a couple of wide receivers along with him. We love Simas, and even former walk-on Scotty McKnight could make a huge leap. Still, Coach Hawkins loves to deem every job open for competition, so the Buff’s fantasy options (beyond young Cody) may not become clear until spring practice. Iowa State Will be missed in 2008: Todd Blythe caught 176 balls for 3096 yards and 31 scores in his prolific career, and following a senior season with 52-779-5, Blythe hopes to begin his professional career. Brett Meyer also moves on from Ames, and while each certainly will be missed, there is a sense that a new start with young talent is exactly what this program needs. Blythe and Meyer leave behind a team that is getting better, and while the Cyclones have a long ways to go, they have a coach who is the right man for the job, and Mr. Chizik has some very intriguing young talent that may become fantasy stars. Fantasy star in 2008: Alexander Robinson provided an indication of what he can be as he put up some decent numbers once given an opportunity. He provides a nice run-catch threat for the Cyclones, and while next year’s youth movement likely makes Robinson a much better fantasy option in 2009, he has, in limited duty, shown the ability to break free when matchups are right. Fantasy sleeper of 2008: If you find yourself playing quarterback Austen Arnaud with any regularity next season you’re likely going to be in the midst of a horrible season. If you find yourself playing Austen Arnaud in 2010, then you may be onto something. Arnaud, in a change of pace role subbing for Bret Meyer, displayed an ability to make some plays. 2008 Fantasy Outlook: I’ve really shortchanged Iowa State in this already brief look ahead to 2008 because I’m lazy yet also hope that no one seriously considers drafting any Cyclones in 2008. However my cynicism should in no way be seen as a lack of faith in Gene Chizik. Chizik will make major strides in this football program. The man is a winner who can coach football. Dan McCarney is a fine coach who took Iowa State as far as he could, and now Chizik is going to take a couple steps backwards in order to make some huge leaps. Recruiting difficulties will likely keep Iowa State from ever becoming a perennial Big Twelve power, but a worker like Chizik will build a consistently solid team with the potential for the occasional big season. 2008 will likely see more struggles than big wins. Hopefully in an era where it’s win now because we need to pay for upgrades, Gene Chizik will get a chance to put his stamp on this program. By the time players such as Robinson and Arnaud are seniors, he’ll have things rolling. For now, avoid Iowa State like the plague. Kansas Will be missed in 2008: Brandon McAnderson, he of the 190-1125-16 senior campaign, will be a significant loss as the Jayhawks look to build upon their incredible 2007 season. McAnderson, part fullback and part halfback, was a stud during a stretch against Texas A&M, Nebraska and Oklahoma State, a three-week run that witnessed 434 yards and eight scores from the workhorse. McAnderson will take his place in Kansas Jayhawk history (how about a few notches below Adonis Jordan and Rex Walters) as a key cog in the football program’s reemergence. Also heading out of Lawrence will be wide receiver Marcus Henry and tight end Derek Fine, receiving threats who were on the end of 16 of Todd Reesing’s 33 scores. While each will leave a void, Mangino’s recent recruiting run will likely see ample talent ready to step up and seize an opportunity. Fantasy star in 2008: For all the props (as the kids like to say) that I garnered for a one-sentence mention of Mike Crabtree way back last March, I’ve received little ridicule for my blurb that minimized the apparent insignificance of Todd Reesing being named starter back last summer. Due to some type of Irish-Catholic guilt, I feel the need to cleanse my soul and admit that upon reading that Reesing would take the reigns, I did indeed write the following on 8.14.07: “Todd Reesing appears to have won the starting job at Kansas. This is significant if you play in a state of Kansas-only fantasy league. Otherwise, move along...not much to see here. Please consider this my formal atonement for those that passed on Reesing and his 36 score and instead cast their lot with the likes of Bret Meyer. Reesing was a fantasy stud in 2007, and he’ll likely surpass the 30 score barrier in 2008. He’ll be winging the pigskin to the likes of Dexton Fields and Dezmon Briscoe, and as mentioned earlier, the wide-open Big Twelve will lead to some monster performances. Reesing has gone from afterthought to top national fantasy quarterback, and amazingly enough, you can feel pretty confident if your 2008 fantasy hopes rest with the starting quarterback for the Kansas Jayhawks. Fantasy sleeper of 2008: I’m going to take the easy way out and go with Dexton Fields, and a large portion of this cop out stems from the recent coaching addition of former Rice wide receiver coach David Beaty to serve in the same capacity at Kansas. Beaty assisted in finding a way to get the ball to Jarret Dillard, and the simpleton in me thinks that if he could get the ball to Dillard when everyone in the stadium knew he was going to see the rock, then he’ll likely take a talent like Fields and find a way to increase his touches. 2008 Fantasy Outlook: There will be many who will deem Kansas a one-year wonder and dismiss their success as a fluke run. They will be wrong. The Jayhawks surpassed the 30-point mark in 10 of their 13 contests, and this includes six games where they went north of 50. This offensive output will likely continue next season. While the 2008 campaign does see a dicey trip to South Florida, there are also early-season games against Florida International, Louisiana Tech, Sam Houston State, Iowa State and Colorado, games in which teams will struggle to contain the likes of Reesing, Jake Sharp, Fields and Dezmon Briscoe. Owners will be able to ride their Jayhawks early, and give themselves time to ponder any roster moves until Oklahoma on October 18th. Kansas State Will be missed in 2008: Forget about the likes of Manningham, Jackson, and Kelly. Jordy Nelson will be the most difficult wide receiver to replace in 2008, and it’s not even close. We loved Nelson heading into the 2006 campaign, and the injury bug short-circuited a breakout junior campaign. However Jordy took advantage of quarterback Josh Freeman’s maturation and became the third best fantasy wide receiver in 2007. The K-State offense went through Nelson, and Jordy’s owners were rewarded with an explosive (see 12-176-3 against Oklahoma State) and consistent (see touchdowns in all but one game) wide receiver whose season was bettered by only Mr. Crabtree and fellow fantasy freak Chad Hall. It’s not often that a former walk-on leaves such a gaping hole on a team’s roster, however Kansas State will find no one able to match Nelson’s contributions. Fantasy Star of 2008: My own fantasy situation became so dire that by season’s end I was relying on Josh Freeman, and I realize by admitting this that there are likely many fewer readers of this article than there were ten seconds ago. Injuries and poor, alcohol-induced, draft day decisions led to desperation, and in a league of fierce, cut-throat competition, Freeman was the only viable option in the clearance rack of free agent options. Freeman is the quarterback that drives everyone nuts. He wings one on a rope 40 yards between three defenders, and then hits those defenders in stride with three passes in the next three quarters. I followed up the toasting to Freeman’s five score performance against Baylor with a cursing when he accounted for one score against Iowa State. Freeman will get better in 2008. He’ll have some big games, and he’ll be the face of the Kansas State offense. However just because he’s K-State’s fantasy star doesn’t mean you should consider him anything more than a late draft pick/waiver move born out of desperation. Freeman is erratic and prone to packing on the pounds. Anytime one could apply a statement to both a possible fantasy quarterback and the late Anna Nicole Smith, he’s one to avoid. Fantasy Sleeper of 2008: Leon Patton appears to be the back who will step in for 1100 yard rusher James Johnson, and this will make Patton a sleeper RB option, even if only in Big Twelve leagues. K-State opens with Louisiana-Lafayette and closes with Iowa State, and when matchups are right like this, then Patton could make some noise. He’ll likely only be a serious consideration in games such as these. 2008 Fantasy Outlook: If I appear down on the Wildcats, then sometimes things are exactly as they appear. This team was beaten by Iowa State and gave up against Nebraska. Freeman will be maddening, and the loss of Nelson will be too much to overcome. Early adversity may signal the end of the Coach Ron Prince era, and these struggles will be due, in large part, to an offensive unit that simply can’t keep up in the wide-open Big Twelve. Where have you gone Michael Bishop? Missouri Will be missed next year: Starting running back Tony Temple has applied for a medical redshirt, and if granted he’ll be able to play another year due to an injury-plagued 2004 campaign. If Temple’s application is indeed granted it’ll be a boost for a Missouri team looking to build upon an outstanding 2007 season. Temple gained over 1000 yards from scrimmage and scored 13 touchdowns for the offensive juggernaut. Regardless of whether he returns or not, Temple has come a long way from when it appeared he and fellow back Marcus Woods would share carries. Martin Rucker departs as the most prolific tight end in Missouri history. The senior tight end completed his stay in Columbia with a senior season for the ages as he accounted for 84 receptions, 834 yards and eight scores. While his tight end partner in crime Chase Coffman returns, Chase Daniel will certainly miss the multi-dimensional threat that Rucker provided the Mizzou offense. Fantasy Star of 2008: Where to start? Clearly Chase Daniel is a top national quarterback and he leads a bumper crop of Big Twelve fantasy quarterbacks. And to think many thought Brad Smith’s graduation would signal the end of Gary Pinkel’s stay at Missouri. Daniel, coming off a 37-touchdown season, may be second to only Tim Tebow on most BCS quarterback draft boards. In addition to the possibility of Temple’s return, Daniel will also have freshman sensation and All-American Jeremy Maclin (16 touchdowns) and the aforementioned Chase Coffman at his disposal. While it’ll be difficult for Maclin to match his rookie numbers, Coffman will be a top-five national tight end. Fantasy sleeper of 2008: Danario Alexander was one of our pre-season sleepers that didn’t pan out last season, and this can be attributed to an early-season injury that cost him any real chance to make a large impact (and helped turn Maclin into a star). We still love Alexander’s potential, and think his presence could signal the onset of an even more wide-open Mizzou attack. Alexander’s 8-117-1 performance against Kansas is more indicative of what he’ll become. With Rucker’s departure Alexander may become a serious red zone option for Mr. Daniel. The question is, will he be able to return from knee surgery? Sophomore running back Derrick Washington is the man to nab if Temple’s appeal for an extra year is denied. Derrick Washington may be a man to nab even if Temple returns. Draft incoming five-star quarterback recruit Blaine Gabbert with a late-round selection. He’ll understudy in 2008, and then he’ll take the controls in 2009. 2008 Team Fantasy Outlook: The Missouri Tigers will be stacked in 2008. Chase Daniel and Chase Coffman are among the nation’s best at their respective positions and Jeremy Maclin is better than DeSean Jackson right now. Danario Alexander has potential, but also injury concerns. Even kicker Jeff Wolfert is a top prospect. Expect Mizzou players to go off the board with great frequency. Nebraska Will be missed next year: Well, it won’t be Bill Callahan. The Callahan era ended in a flurry of defensive meltdowns that had Husker fans wondering just who invited this guy to the party. Mr. Osborne has come in to clean up the mess, and new coach Bo Pelini will have his hands full, and he won’t have the services of the team’s top receiver from 2007. Maurice Purify endured a difficult year, both on and off the field, yet he was still able to account for nine scores and 814 receiving yards. While Purify did push double digits, he did so in a maddening inconsistent fashion as six of his scores came in blowout losses to Kansas and Colorado. Purify’s numbers will be missed, however for a program that’s looking to put the past few years in the rearview mirror, the Husker offense will be able to move forward. Fantasy Star of 2008: One couldn’t blame Marlon Lucky if he decided to forego his senior season for a shot at NFL riches. However Lucky took note of the strong running back's coming out and decided to stick around for the change in culture that Bo Pelini will bring. Lucky will be the go-to guy, and in an offense that Pelini says will still have a west coast flava, Lucky should continue to serve as a great dual-threat fantasy option. It’s hard to believe that Marlon Lucky went for 206-1019-9 on the ground while catching 75 balls for an additional 705 yards and three scores. To put this into an appropriate context please consider that Lucky’s 1784 yards from scrimmage were about 300 more than Steve Slaton. Expect Lucky to push 2000 yards from scrimmage and maybe 15 scores. Take a look at 2007’s numbers, and we realize that Lucky may be a top-five BCS running back. Fantasy sleeper of 2008: Taking the easy way out once again, I’m going to list last year’s starting quarterback as next year’s fantasy sleeper. Joe Ganz took over following ASU refugee Sam Keller’s injury, and in the final three games of the season Ganz accounted for 5, 7 and 6 scores. While we don’t expect this output to become Ganz’ norm in 2008 (thanks in large part to the belief that the Husker defensive cannot possibly be that bad next year) he does provide an intriguing fantasy option. Because I feel guilty about choosing Ganz as my sleeper, I’ll also throw in Omaha native and sophomore wide receiver Niles Paul. Paul only saw limited action in 2007, and he’s got to become stronger to play a huge role, however he’s one that could emerge as a threat with the 2008 version of Nebraska football. 2008 Team Fantasy Outlook: Nebraska brings back former defensive coordinator Bo Pelini, and his national title experience will certainly prove beneficial as he attempts to restore the luster to the Nebraksa name while out on the recruiting trail. Pelini has his work cut for him, however his rough around the edges style will be a refreshing change from the country club style of Bill Callahan. While the defense has a long way to go, the Ganz and Lucky offense will put up some nice numbers. Those who spend an early-round selection on Lucky will also want to invest a later selection in Quentin Castille, who flashed a nice skill set in his 75 carries as a freshman. Don’t expect Ganz to continue his end-of-season run, but it’s certainly not out of the question that Ganz could push for 30 scores should he stay healthy.

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