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.With nine of the 12 conference schools returning quarterbacks – and Arizona State returning a quarterback with plenty of experience – the “conference of quarterbacks” looks to be primed for a banner season. Led by Andrew Luck of Stanford, the Pac-12 offers a stable of throwers and multi-dimensional signal-callers from Arizona’s Nick Foles to Oregon Darron Thomas to Utah’s Jordan Wynn and beyond. Offense will get plenty of respect in the Pac-12, and there’s certainly enough defense to make people keep an eye on both sides of the ball as the conference continues to improve its speed and physicality defensively.
When the smoke clears, expect Oregon to again be the team to beat, with USC, Arizona and Stanford looking to toss a banana peel on the dance floor. Want a sleeper team? Look to Arizona State, which returns 19 starters from a 6-6 team, including playmakers on both sides of the ball.
Given the new 12-team conference and the split into six-team divisions – and a conference championship game -- the Pac-12 has certainly opened up new avenues of revenue for the league, particularly in what promises to be a very competitive season. At first blush, it would seem that there are 10 teams very capable of playing in a bowl game come December and January, with only WashingtonState and a very shaky California seemingly not of that caliber.
California Golden Bears
2010 Record: 5-7
2010 Offensive Rank (out of 120): 73rd
2010 Defensive Rank (out of 120): 40th
Base Offense: Multiple
Returning Starters: (7 – offense) Justin Cheadle, Mitchell Schwartz and Brian Schwenke (OL), Keenan Allen (WR), Anthony Miller (TE), Spencer Ladner (TE), Marvin Jones (WR). (6 – defense) Marc Anthony, Sean Catthouse and Josh Hill (DB), D.J. Holt (LB), Mychal Kendricks (LB), Ernest Owusu (DL). Bryan Anger (P), Giorgio Tavecchio (PK)
Significant losses: Kevin Riley (QB), Shane Vereen (RB), Keith Browner (DL), Darian Hagan (DB), Cameron Jordan (DE), Mike Mohammed (LB)
Newcomer of Note:
Linebacker David Wilkerson looked like he was going to be a player as a true freshman a year ago, but a broken hand derailed his run. Now healed, the redshirt frosh looks like he’s going to be a starter and likely impact player for the Golden Bear defense this fall.
2011 Thoughts:
New quarterback, new running backs and plenty of questions surround the Golden Bears this season. Perhaps the best addition was the subtraction of mercurial quarterback Kevin Riley, who never really lived up to the early billing. While the offense has receiving strength and some offensive line returnees, as has been the case at Cal for a while, the quarterback play will be pivotal. Zach Maynard, the Buffalo transfer, won the job out of spring practice, so we’ll see. Defensively, this team loses enough playmakers to make you wonder if they can fill the gap.
Final Analysis:
The Bears could very well be in a dogfight to reach last year’s 5-7 record. Though Maynard’s proven himself once – that was at Buffalo, a much smaller stage than the Pac-12, where he’ll face all kinds of speed off the edges and in the secondary. Running back Isi Sofele is small, but certainly has the ability to make things happen, but it just doesn’t seem likely to be enough. Too many questions offensively, too many impact players lost on defense. Look for Cal to slip deep into the Pac-12 bowels.
Oregon Ducks
2010 Record: 12-1
2010 Offensive Rank (out of 120): 1st
2010 Defensive Rank (out of 120): 12th
Base Offense: Spread
Returning Starters: (7 – offense) Carson York, Darrion Weems and Mark Asper (OL), David Paulson (TE), Lavasier Tuinei (WR), Darron Thomas (QB), LaMichael James (RB). (6 – defense) Terrell Turner (DE), Josh Kaddu (LB), Eddie Pleasant (ROV), Anthony Gildon (CB), John Boyett (S), Cliff Harris (CB). Jackson Rice (P) and Rob Beard (PK).
Significant losses: Jeff Maehl (WR), Bo Thran (OL), Brandon Bair (DT), Casey Mathews (LB), Spencer Paysinger (LB), Kenny Rowe (DE).
Newcomer of Note:
Colt Lyerla graduated early and was a full participant in Oregon’s spring work. Lyerla worked at tight end and H-back for the Ducks and drew praise on several occasions from coach Chip Kelly.
Lache Seastrunk may be a redshirt freshman behind a lot of running back firepower for the Ducks (LaMichael James, Kenyon Barner, etc.), but he turned heads aplenty during the spring. A year’s maturity and acclimation to the college game at Oregon’s pace looks like it had the desired impact on this big-time 2010 recruit. Don’t laugh; he could see the ball a decent amount in 2011.
2011 Thoughts:
Oregon’s offense has plenty of speed and playmakers across its two-deep on offense, but it will be the defense that determines Oregon’s bowl fortunes. The Ducks lost some key defensive linemen and linebackers, something that can’t be underestimated. While Oregon’s offense plays fast, its defense did a tremendous job of getting three-and-outs quickly, forcing turnovers and generally putting the offense in prime scoring opportunities. An offense like Oregon’s feeds on that like piranha on a fallen ox. The strength of the defensive returners is in the secondary, so finding stout defenders up front is critical, lest opposing offenses run the ball, control the clock and leave this offense, which will again be potent with LaMichael James and co., on the bench waiting. The Duck offense will do its thing, but it’s the defense that will determine how big a bite out of the Pac-10 Nike U. enjoys.
Final Analysis:
Oregon has running backs, receivers and a quarterback who makes it all move. The question is whether it will be enough to get the Ducks back into the big dance – a question that also involves health and a little bit of luck. In 2010, Oregon had it all its own way and certainly made opponents stop and stare with its high tempo offense. A year later, are opposing defenses going to start to catch up or is the intensity and talent just too much for most teams to deal with? Oregon will score points in bunches again, but the defense will be the key to the Duck season. It was an underrated aspect during last year’s march to the title game, but takes on a bigger role after losing some key components this year. Expect 10 wins, but getting the final two will be problematic.
Oregon State Beavers
2010 Record: 5-7
2010 Offensive Rank (out of 120): 82nd
2010 Defensive Rank (out of 120): 64th
Base Offense: Multiple
Returning Starters: (8 – offense) Ryan Katz (QB), Joe Halahuni (HB/TE), Markus Wheaton (WR), Michael Philipp, Grant Johnson, Burke Ellis and Mike Remmers (OL). (4 – defense) Dominic Glover (DE), Rueben Robinson (LB), Lance Mitchell (S), Brandon Hardin (CB). Johnny Hekker (P).
Significant losses: Jacquizz Rodgers (RB), Alex Linnenkohl (C), Gabe Miller (DE), Stephen Paea (DT), James Dockery (CB), Dwight Roberson (LB), Justin Kahut (PK).
Newcomer of Note:
The Beavers like to throw to the tight end and may have found a dandy in redshirt freshman Connor Hamlett, who caught 11 passes for 153 yards in the spring game. With Joe Halahuni nursing a shoulder injury and questions surrounding the receiving corps, Hamlett could be another attractive target.
2011 Thoughts:
So many questions with quarterback Ryan Katz, wide receiver James Rodgers and H-back Joe Halahuni all nursing injuries of various severities. This is the season we’re going to find out if wide receiver Markus Wheaton is the type of playmaker you can hang your hat on for a full season. Wheaton has shown flashes, but with so many playmakers gone or suspect, he’s going to get a chance to touch the ball a lot. Defensively, this team was not its usual stingy self a year ago and with four starters back, perhaps that’s not such a bad thing, though losing a Stephen Paea in the middle can’t ever make one smile. Coach Mike Riley and his staff pride themselves on taking low-level recruits and turning them into defensive mainstays. The Beavers will have their hands full trying to get the defense up to its past standards. With Mitchell and Hardin in the secondary, the back line has some nice components, it’s the front seven that needs to be peeled back to see what’s there. If they struggle, a 5-7 record could be on the table again.
Final Analysis:
Oregon State simply rolled out the unenviable trifecta of poor offensive play, a defense that suddenly bent a lot more than it used to, and injuries that stymied any momentum – both emotional and physical – the team tried to build. Quarterback Ryan Katz went into an offensive funk after throwing three dumb picks against Washington, and the offense followed. With a defense that’s very green and offensive questions all around him, including a reshuffled offensive line, Katz is the key to the 2011 campaign. Things seem unsettled in Corvallis for the first time in a while.
Stanford Cardinal
2010 Record: 12-1
2010 Offensive Rank (out of 120): 9th
2010 Defensive Rank (out of 120): 9th
Base Offense: Multiple
Returning Starters: (5 – offense) Andrew Luck (QB), Stepfan Taylor (RB), Coby Fleener (TE), David DeCastro (OL), Jonathan Martin (OL). (6 – defense) Matt Masifilo (DE), Chase Thomas (LB), Shayne Skov (LB), Delano Howell (SS), Michael Thomas (FS), Johnson Bademosi (CB). Daniel Zychlinski (P).
Significant losses: Doug Baldwin (WR), Owen Marecic (FB/LB), Ryan Whalen (WR), Chase Beeler (C), Sione Fua (DT), Richard Sherman (CB), Nate Whitaker (PK).
Newcomer of Note:
Darren Daniel has been with the program a year, but he’s a converted quarterback who sure looked like a playmaking wide receiver all spring. The worry is that with Chris Owusu chronically hurt and Ryan Whalen and Doug Baldwin gone, the Cardinal are very iffy at receiver. Daniel, at 6-4, and with good speed, made plays all spring long.
2011 Thoughts:
“Luck of the draw,” “Cardinal get ‘Lucky,’” or “Luck be a Heisman tonight” – Oh, the possibilities for newspaper headlines are endless thanks to Andrew Luck’s decision to return. Let’s face it, the offense is built around and for Luck, so expect him to put his touch on the Stanford record books some more. If Stanford can mount a decent running game (Stepfan Taylor alert) and develop some receiving production, Luck’s numbers could be unworldly. As with just about every high level quarterback, part of those numbers to be crunched can come courtesy of a defense that gets the ball back quickly and, when available, in good field position. The Stanford defense will be what it usually is, a group of hard-working blue collar types who take what’s given them. Last year’s top-10 ranking won’t hold, but expect the defenders to be a top-25 type group. That will be enough for Luck to deliver and then be the No. 1 pick in the 2012 NFL Draft.
Final Analysis:
It’s Andrew Luck’s team, his offense, his coattails – it’s that simple. Everything else is complimentary to that. Finding some wide receivers he’s confident in will be key, as will getting the offensive line to come together. In the end, Luck will have plenty of success, but the chances of Stanford winning 12 games again is minimal. If they can get to 10, call it a major success.
Washington Huskies
2010 Record: 7-6
2010 Offensive Rank (out of 120): 96th
2010 Defensive Rank (out of 120): 79th
Base Offense: Pro Style
Returning Starters: (7 – offense) Devin Aguilar (WR), Jermaine Kearse (WR), Senio Kelemete (LT), Drew Schaefer (OL), Colin Porter (OL), Marlion Barnett (TE), Chris Polk (RB). (8 – defense) Hau’oli Jamora (DE), Talia Crichton (DE), Cort Dennison (LB), Alameda Ta’amu (DT), Everrett Thompson (DT), Nate Fellner (FS), Desmond Trufant (CB), Quinton Richardson (CB), Erik Folk (PK), Kiel Rasp (P).
Significant losses: Jake Locker (QB), Ryan Tolar (OL), Austin Sylvester (FB), Nate Williams (SS), Cameron Elisara (DT), Victor Aiyewa (LB).
Newcomer of Note:
John Timu didn’t enroll until winter 2011, but he certainly made an impression during the spring. Timu spent most of the spring chasing quarterbacks and ball carriers from sideline to sideline, turning heads almost daily and thrusting himself into the linebacker mix heading into fall camp.
Lining up behind Timu could very well be sophomore safety Sean Parker, who has no career starts, but has certainly raised his value during the spring. He was a ball-hawk in the spring and certainly could be an impact player for a secondary that needs some.
2011 Thoughts:
It’s going to seem funny not inserting the adjectives to describe Jake Locker anymore. With Locker gone, sophomore Keith Price becomes the most watched guy in Seattle. Fortunately, with two top receivers (Aguilar and Kearse), three offensive linemen and running back Chris Polk all back in the fold, this offense will look different, but should still be plenty effective. All Price (or any quarterback for UW) needs to do is manage the offense, hit the passes that are available and let the talent around him do their thing. What’s really to like for the Huskies is a defense that returns eight starters and should pay big dividends after watching youngsters play a lot the last two years. No way is this unit near the bottom third in total defense. Expect a major defensive statistical jump this season and that’s going to allow Price and Co. some advantageous scoring opportunities.
Final Analysis:
It’s a new era in Washington, but the improvement the program has made under Steve Sarkisian will continue to be evident as Washington again chases a bowl berth. The defense will be markedly improved, the offense will adjust to its new trajectory, and eight or nine wins could be possible. The key will be getting Price acclimated quickly and letting his other weapons do the damage.
Washington State Cougars
2010 Record: 2-10
2010 Offensive Rank (out of 120): 106th
2010 Defensive Rank (out of 120): 110th
Base Offense: Spread
Returning Starters: (9 – offense) David Gonzales, Wade Jacobson, B.J. Guerra and John Fullington (OL), Jared Karstetter, Marquess Wilson and Isiah Burton (WR), Logwone Mitz (RB/WR), Jeff Tuel (QB). (8 – defense) Travis Long (DE), Brandon Rankin (DT), C.J. Mizell (LB), Alex Hoffman-Ellis (LB), Nolan Washington (CB), Deone Bucannon (SS), Tyree Toomer (FS), Daniel Simmons (CB).
Significant losses: James Montgomery (RB), Micah Hannam (RT), Myron Beck (LB). Nico Grasu (PK).
Newcomer of Note:
The Cougars need to stop the run this season and redhsirt freshman Toni Pole emerged during the spring as a potential run stopper. The squat (6-1, 298) Pole was a tough block during the spring and won the starting spot with his consistent play against the run and disruptiveness overall.
While Logwone Mitz is the first-team running back, redshirt freshman Rickey Galvin certainly raised eyebrows during the spring. He’s 5-8, 162 lbs. and lightning quick and hard to get a hand on. He’s also a big-play guy, which this offense desperately needs.
2011 Thoughts:
With 17 starters returning, this program has to be headed upward, doesn’t it? The problem for WSU is that the Pac-12 will be a very good conference in 2011 – the Cougars could be a much improved team and still struggle to win three or four games. WSU has a very good receiving group led by Marquess Wilson, but until the quarterback play gets better (and stays healthy), they will have moments of excitement surrounded by moments of ineptitude and ineffectiveness. This team struggled both offensively and defensively in 2010 and though 2011 looks better, there are still plenty of holes to be filled and improved upon. Expect an upset or two, but no long-term success.
Final Analysis:
Expect another tough Fall in Pullman. The Cougars are far better than they were a couple years ago when the program bottomed-out, but the first season of Pac-12 play likely will not be kind to them. Too many good offenses to torment a defense with too few playmakers; too much speed and physicality from opposing defenses for a Cougar offense that simply can’t shake its struggles of the last five years. Wilson and Karstetter are gifted receivers, but there are too many holes that doom WSU to another losing season. Think 2-10, hope for 4-8.