Conference USA East Preview

Alex Esselink
Editor
June 22, 2011

For complete C-USA player rankings and player previews, see our Draft Kit.

Conference USA features five of the nation’s top quarterbacks in Case Keenum, Dominique Davis, G.J. Kinne, Austin Davis and Kyle Padron. Of course where there are good quarterbacks there must be guys on the receiving end. Damaris Johnson, Patrick Edwards and Tyron Carrier are some of the nation’s fastest receivers and will give opposing cornerbacks fits. The conference’s prolific passing offenses are a huge draw for fantasy owners and a nightmare for defensive coordinators.

Note that all of the quarterbacks mentioned above are seniors, so this could be the last year we see such explosiveness from the conference. It’s time to get in while the getting is good.

Below is a look at the teams from East division.

Central Florida

2010 Record: 11-3

2010 Offensive Rank (out of 120): 30th

2010 Defensive Rank (out of 120): 7th

Base Offense: Spread

Returning Starters: 7 Off / 4 Def

Significant losses: WR Jamar Newsome, WR Brian Watters and WR Kamar Aiken

Newcomer of Note: Not a newcomer, but running back Brynn Harvey should be back after sitting out last fall with a knee injury.

2011 Thoughts: As a true freshman, Jeff Godfrey passed for 2159 yards and rushed for another 566. Now that the job is firmly his, look for those numbers to grow this fall. He’s a dynamic player and future top quarterback in the conference. Obviously, because he’s only in his second year, he holds more value in keeper leagues.

The Knights will need to replace starters at receiver, but A.J. Guyton and Quincy McDuffie have plenty of experience. The passing game probably won’t do enough to support a fantasy wide out, however.

There is plenty of depth at running back with Latavius Murray, Ronnie Weaver and the return of Brynn Harvey. The Knights are poised to make a run at the C-USA title.

Final Analysis: The running back situation is too messy to mess with on draft day. Also be careful of being lured in if one of the three has a big game; it may not translate to the following week.

The fantasy play for the Knights is Godfrey.

East Carolina

2010 Record:  6-7

2010 Offensive Rank (out of 120): 15th

2010 Defensive Rank (out of 120): 119th

Base Offense: Spread

Returning Starters: 6 Off / 7 Def

Significant losses: WR Dwayne Harris, RB Jonathan Williams

Newcomer of Note: If he qualifies, running back Chevelle Buie could flourish in this wide open offense.

2011 Thoughts: ECU quickly became a fantasy goldmine last fall, and with quarterback Dominique Davis returning, it should be more of the same in 2011. Davis was one of the top fantasy quarterbacks in the country last fall with 46 touchdowns (nine rushing). He’s sure to be a high first round pick in fantasy drafts this fall.  

With the loss of Dwayne Harris, Lance Lewis will be the focal point in the passing game. Don’t look for a huge bump in numbers as he's probably pretty close to his ceiling already. The big benefactors will be Michael Bowman, Andrew Bodenheimer and Justin Jones. Bowman has been suspended for the opener, but look for him to emerge as the team's second leading receiver when he comes back.

The running back situation is less clear with several candidates jockeying for the starting spot. Michael Dodson will likely be the starter, but probably won’t see enough carries to be a fantasy consideration.

Final Analysis: The non-conference schedule is brutal. The Pirates face off against South Carolina, Virginia Tech and North Carolina in the early part of the season. Keep in mind Davis threw five interceptions against just two touchdown passes against the Hokies and Tar Heels last fall. With a full year to work out the bugs of their offense, the Pirates should fare better against these teams this year, but it is still a concern.

The decision to start Davis during this stretch is going to be a tough one for fantasy owners. And there is also a greater risk of injury playing against the big boys. If Davis & Co. can make it through this stretch unscathed, the Pirates offense will once again explode when the conference schedule kicks into gear.

Marshall

2010 Record:  5-7

2010 Offensive Rank (out of 120): 101st

2010 Defensive Rank (out of 120): 74th

Base Offense: Single Back

Returning Starters: 6 Off / 6 Def

Significant losses: Quarterback Brian Anderson

Newcomer of Note: Freshman receiver Conelius Jones could see early playing time.

2011 Thoughts: The Herd have plenty of work to do offensively. Marshall ranked 101st in scoring and 103rd in total offense last fall.

The Herd used a committee approach at running back last season with Martin Ward, Andre Booker and Tron Martinez, and this should continue in 2011.

There is plenty of reason for encouragement with the talent returning at running back and receiver. However, they do need to find a new starting quarterback and have holes to fill along the offensive line.

Final Analysis: The committee approach at running back and a new starter at quarterback make Marshall a team to avoid.

Memphis

2010 Record:  1-11

2010 Offensive Rank (out of 120): 119th

2010 Defensive Rank (out of 120): 117th

Base Offense: Spread

Returning Starters: 7 Off / 7 Def

Significant losses: RB Gregory Ray, QB Ryan Williams

Newcomer of Note: Junior college running back Jamere Valentine will push for carries this fall.

2011 Thoughts: With Gregory Ray graduating, the starting running back job will go to Jerrell Rhodes. Don’t be surprised if Rhodes becomes a workhorse back that sees 20 carries a game. However, offensive line woes will keep his yards per carry down.

Quarterback Ryan Williams opted to transfer to Miami in the offseason, leaving the starting job for Andy Summerlin. Summerlin will have veteran wide outs Marcus Rucker and Billy Foster to throw to on a weekly basis.  Rucker is the offense’s top weapon, catching 41 passes for 704 yards and eight scores last fall.

Final Analysis: Rhodes is an option late in the draft if you’re running out of choices. He has some upside, but he is far from a sure thing. The rest of the offense still needs some work.

Southern Miss

2010 Record:  8-5

2010 Offensive Rank (out of 120): 15th

2010 Defensive Rank (out of 120): 81st

Base Offense: Spread

Returning Starters: 7 Off / 7 Def

Significant losses: QB Martevious Young, RB V.J. Floyd , WR Johdrick Morris, WR DeAndre Brown

Newcomer of Note: This is a veteran group so playing time for youngsters will be limited, but keep an eye on incoming receiver Jhyryn Taylor.

2011 Thoughts: Despite the losses noted above, the offense is loaded. It all starters with Austin Davis at quarterback who will be going on his fourth year as the starter. Throw out the injury-plagued sophomore season and Davis has been a consistent performer, throwing for over 3000 yards and rushing for nearly 500 yards in his freshman and junior campaigns. There is plenty of talent returning for him to repeat those numbers in 2011.

The receiving corps may actually be better without DeAndre Brown. He became a distraction last fall with the weekly “will he or won’t play on Saturday” thing. If you are looking for a breakout performer of the group, look no further than Kelvin Bolden. He has the potential to be a week in, week out fantasy producer.

The running back spot is a little clearer than last year with Kendirck Hardy stepping up his game late last fall. He’ll still have to share carries with Desmond Johnson, but he should see the bulk of the touches.

Final Analysis: The Eagles should continue to improve on offense, especially in the ground game. Davis is a top fantasy pick. Bolden and Hardy are also worthy of mid-to-late round picks on draft day.

UAB

2010 Record:  4-8

2010 Offensive Rank (out of 120): 66th

2010 Defensive Rank (out of 120): 95th

Base Offense: Spread

Returning Starters: 7 Off / 8 Def

Significant losses: TE Jeffery Anderson, WR Frantrell Forrest, WR Mike Jones, QB David Isabelle

Newcomer of Note: Georgia transfer Dontavius Jackson will provide quality backup minutes at running back. Or worse, he could steal carries from Pat Shed.

2011 Thoughts: The question on whether quarterback David Isabelle could throw was answered pretty quickly last fall, and the answer was no. Enter Bryan Ellis who quickly established himself as a passing threat. Ellis threw three or more touchdown passes in five of his last seven games. He’ll continue to improve this fall with more time under center.

Do-everything-running back Pat Shed is also back, giving the Blazers a deadly one-two punch. Shed is especially dangerous out of the backfield, catching 47 passes for 471 yards and four scores last fall. He holds extra value in PPR leagues.

Final Analysis: UAB’s offensive explosion at the end of the season can be a bit deceiving. Keep in mind the Blazers closed out the season against the likes of East Carolina, Memphis and Rice; teams that ranked 120th, 115th and 107th respectively in scoring defense. Of course there are plenty of bad defenses in the C-USA for Shed and Ellis to feast on once again, but be careful of games against Florida, Mississippi State and Central Florida.