Draft Strategy: Match Those Schedules!

Anytime someone has asked me what my draft strategy is for this season, I tell them three things:

1. Load up on running backs and wide receivers early

2. Wait until the middle to late rounds for your quarterbacks

3. Don’t draft a defense or kicker early

While none of these tips are groundbreaking strategies, with this year’s player pool, I feel like this strategy gives you the best chance to win. Why does this strategy work? One word: matchups.

Try to guess who these players are:

Player A is none other than elite Oklahoma quarterback Landry Jones who is being drafted in the first round in nearly every draft. And who is Player B? Player B is Nate Murray aka a combination of Illinois quarterback Nate Scheelhaase and Georgia quarterback Aaron Murray. Both players went either undrafted or very late round selections in 2010.

Now I’m sure you’re thinking at this point I used the stats for whoever had the best game each week, and how easy this is to do in hindsight. However, what I actually did was take the players score from whoever had the best weekly matchup. If you take a look at the schedule match below, you’ll see how perfectly they line up. No matter who you draft at quarterback, you will have to have a backup at some point due to byes, so it isn’t like this strategy makes you waste a roster spot. Unlike the NFL, college is much easier to predict in the preseason who will be an easy matchup which makes playing the “Match Game” a viable strategy.

For defenses, it is even easier to match up teams confidently. To stay consistent and really drive my point home how important matching up your defense is, I’m going to use the same teams and the exact same matchups I used in my quarterback comparison.

Defense A was by last year’s top selected defense according to ADP data. This mystery team is perennial defensive powerhouse Ohio State. Defense B was a combination of Illinois and Georgia, using the same schedule match as above. That’s right, two defenses that weren’t even typically selected in most drafts outperformed a defense you would have had to spend an early pick on.

Now I’m certainly not suggesting you wait until the end of your draft to select a quarterback. However, I am suggesting instead of spending one of your first two picks on a quarterback, that you wait until the 5^th or 6^th round and follow up in the next few rounds with a quarterback that matches up well. Having to play the matchup game on a weekly basis with your top point getter isn’t for the faint of heart, but you can maximize the value of your draft using this technique.

I think you should always wait until the final third of your draft or later to select your defenses. Let your league mates use their early picks drafting defenses while you will quietly be maximizing your points from the position. And guess what? CFFInsider has an amazing tool in the jammed packed draft kit to help you do just that, the schedule matcher! While it is extremely convenient to use while you are drafting to check bye weeks, it can be even more powerful if you use it right before your draft!

Here are a few of my favorite defensive schedules that work really well together for 2011:

And a few mid-to-llower ranked quarterback schedules that work really well together for 2011: