Big Twelve South: 2008 Look Ahead

Brian McDonald
Senior Editor
February 19, 2008
There is not a more eclectic mix of coaches anywhere than those that currently reside in the Big 12 South. We’ve got everyone from the well-spoken and well-read Mike Leach to the blockhead Mike “I’M A MAN!” Gundy. Additionally we’ve got future hall-of-famers in Norman and Austin, and there’s two new guys joining the neighborhood. Interestingly enough these men of contrast have similar views on how to win in college football. They all believe in spreading them out and winging it around a little bit, but this doesn't necessarily mean each leads a team chock full of college fantasy football stars. We have fantasy goldmines in Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Texas. We have a couple fantasy stars in Stillwater, and two teams in Baylor and Texas A&M that we’re waiting to see exactly what we’re going to get. The Big 12 South boasts names such as Crabtree, Harrell, Murray, Bradford and Robinson, players whose names will be called very early in August. These stars are joined by a terrific collection of young talent, and this is further evidence that the Big 12 has surpassed the Pac-10 as the fantasy locale to raid. Before we move forward, here’s a look at the All-Big Twelve fantasy team of 2007. An asterisk notes those players that have either exhausted their eligibility (*) or have decided to forego their remaining years on campus (**). 2007 All Big Twelve Fantasy Team (total fantasy points prior to week 14) QB: Graham Harrell 468.10 RB: Jamaal Charles** 229.20 RB: Marlon Lucky 193.60 WR: Michael Crabtree 262.80 WR: Jordy Nelson* 198.10 TE: Martin Rucker* 106.93 K: Jeff Wolfert 130.00 D: Kansas Jayhawks Baylor Will be missed next year: Before his arrival in Waco, Guy Morriss was known primarily as the Kentucky coach who was doused with Gatorade only to see LSU pull out a miracle win a few seconds later. After five seasons as coach at Baylor, Guy Morriss is still the Kentucky coach who was doused with Gatorade only to see LSU pull out a miracle win a few seconds later. There were moments, especially as Shawn Bell and Blake Szymanski made some things happen, when it appeared that maybe the Morriss-led Bears could reach a state of mediocrity. At the very least they looked to have offensive potential. With no apparent hopes of battling for bowl eligibility on the horizon, Morriss moves on, and now Art Briles has the honor of getting smoked on a weekly basis. Briles won’t have Brandon Whitaker around to run the ball, and Whitaker, while not a legitimate fantasy option, was a solid back for da Bears. Accounting for about 900 yards and five scores for Baylor is certainly something that should impress women at the bar, and while Baylor has a few backs that can likely produce similar numbers, Whitaker will be missed. Fantasy Star of 2008: In the Big XII North preview I admitted that for a few weeks of my fantasy season Josh Freeman did indeed take snaps for my prolific squad. In the interest of total disclosure, it’s now time to admit that Blake Szymanski saw the starting lineup as well. Needless to say, things fell apart rather quickly. However Szymanski did put up some decent numbers and he’ll be the odds-on favorite to be Baylor’s starting quarterback, even if it’s going to be a crowded depth chart. Joining Szymanksi will be senior John David Weed, sophomore Tyler Beatty and even Miami transfer Kirby Freeman. The Bears also have a kid named Robert Griffin, a freshman already on campus. Supposedly this Griffin lad can run really, really fast, and he believes he can make an impact at quarterback right now. Still, he’s a freshman at Baylor, and the likelihood of anyone, especially a freshman, making a fantasy impact in Waco is slimmer than Calista Flockhart. Fantasy sleeper of 2008: Last summer an astute reader asked why WR David Gettis was ranked so low on our big board. I initially wrote him off as one of those rabid Baylor football fans, and felt both pity and admiration for him. But then we did a little more research (translation: another google search) and liked what we read. Still we kept him in no-man’s land on our big board because we’re pathetic and very insecure. As the year wore on the potential of this burner was clearly evident, and even with the dismissal of Morriss, Gettis, who’ll be a junior eligibility-wise, could become Blake Szymanski’s best friend. Gettis has speed, speed, and more speed. And as Mickey said before making Rocky Balboa chase the chicken in that ugly sweatshirt, “speed’s what we need”. This was before he spoke of eating lightning and crapping thunder. 2008 Fantasy Outlook: Many of the same principles still apply: fall behind early, then chuck it like crazy. Still Baylor under Art Briles will attempt to establish a running game, and while this may be fruitless, it should at least keep Baylor from getting blown out as badly. Szymanski and Gettis normally wouldn’t be horrible late-round selections, but the Baylor schedule provides no cupcakes other than Northwestern State. Briles is a solid coach, but he’s been done no favors with a non-conference slate that also includes Wake Forest, UCONN and Wazzu. Baylor is a great deal like Vandy: both squads that have shown a bit of offensive potential in recent years, and now it appears that they’ve been knocked back to the basement for a while. It’s clearly not easy to compete in the arms race in conferences like the Big XII and SEC. It takes some special players and a great deal of good fortune. Briles better be in for the long haul. Oklahoma Will be missed next year: The Sooners were a fantasy owner’s dream in 2007, and the 2008 version could be the most balanced and explosive offense in the country. There is incredible talent and depth at each skill position and this is even more impressive considering that Malcolm Kelly decided to forego his senior season and head to da league. While Kelly did post a 49-821-9 junior campaign, these numbers are deceiving. Kelly roared out of the gate as he went for seven scores in the Sooners’ first three contests, yet he only scored twice in the next nine. He was nicked up a good portion of the season, and his numbers were victimized by the depth and talent on the Sooners’ offensive unit. Kelly, a likely first-day draft pick, leaves a hole in the offensive attack, yet the talent that remains certainly appears capable of stepping up. Fantasy Star of 2008: While it seems that DeMarco Murray and Sam Bradford are prime candidates to be the Sooners’ fantasy superstars, there are others such as WR’s Juaquin Iglesias, Manuel Johnson and the freakish Quentin Chaney who could make a national splash. Let us not forget Jermaine Greshman’s penchant for scoring touchdowns. There’s talent galore, but the offense will center on the aforementioned Bradford and Murray. Sam Bradford was the 2007 version of 2006 Colt McCoy. Bradford’s redshirt freshman season, with over 3100 yards passing and 36 scores, put to rest any quarterback controversy with Joey Halzle and Keith Nichol. Like McCoy, Bradford will have a hard time matching his rookie season’s numbers, but don’t expect too considerable of a drop-off. Jay Norvell’s arrival as co-offensive coordinator from UCLA will likely witness some tweaks to the passing game that will only prove beneficial. Unlike other great passing attacks, it’s the Sooner running game that sets it apart from the likes of Texas Tech and Florida, and it starts with Mr. Murray. This is what we thought of DeMarco Murray back in April of last year: Preseason Preview (April 2007) This redshirt freshman has the potential to be the next great back at Oklahoma, and it’ll be impossible to keep him off the field. One of our top-ten breakout stars in '07. It's obvious to us that Coach Stoops was holding Murray back in the spring game, trying to keep his little secret under wraps. But we are not fooled. We advise that you keep talking up Allen Patrick to your buddies and then draft Murray...early. Provided Murray can rebound from kneecap surgery, and provided he can stay healthy next season, Murray will continue to wow and put up huge fantasy numbers. While the solid Chris Brown returns, he’s not the breakaway threat of DeMarco. Murray’s 15 scores (while missing the final three games) on the season included two returns, and this electric runner will return to an awesome offensive unit. Fantasy sleeper of 2008: Again, where to start? Not only are the Sooners loaded right now, but Bob Stoops is in the process of wrapping up what may be his finest recruiting class. There are so many candidates seemingly ready to emerge, but we’re going to play our sleeper card on Quentin Chaney. Filling in for the injured Malcolm Kelly, Chaney was a man amongst boys as his Sooners were rolled in the Fiesta Bowl. He’s big, strong and fast, and one wonders why he hadn’t played a larger role earlier in his career. Normally a senior-to-be doesn’t fit into the sleeper category, but Chaney, alongside Iglesias, could really explode in 08. Of course one could also look to the future and draft any of the future wide receiver studs that are a part of this year’s class. Even if Julio Jones doesn’t commit, incoming talent like Jameel Owens, Josh Jarboe and DeJuan Miller will keep Sam Bradford smiling. 2008 Team Fantasy Outlook: I know…I need to get a room with the Sooner offense already. I’ve raved about this unit’s potential next season, and I see no reason to stop. If any skill starter goes down, there is a star-in-waiting ready to go. While this is great from a Sooner fan perspective, the fantasy numbers may be spread around a bit too liberally. Murray, Bradford and Gresham appear locks to put up huge numbers. The wide receiver spot, with such unfair depth, will likely see a great deal of balance that will make predicting big pass-catching games a difficult chore. This is an offensive unit without any weaknesses. Oklahoma St. Will be missed in 2008: Dantrell Savage struggled and was injured in the season opener at Georgia, and this injury caused him to miss two games. Savage then surpassed the 100-yard barrier in each and every game of the season. When it was all said and done Dantrell had accumulated 1279 rushing yards, 259 receiving yards, and he had put 12 scores on the board. Such consistent production will be hard to replace. While Savage never scored more than twice in any game, he was a very reliable 2nd or 3rd back for fantasy ballers. Also moving on will be wide receiver Adarius Bowman, whose 67-1006-8 season is even more impressive considering he missed two games and one was against the Baylor defense. Bowman returned in time for the bowl game, where he caught 74 yards of balls for one score. While the Cowboys have some young talent ready to step in and play right now, the absences of both Bowman and Robinson will certainly be felt. Fantasy star in 2008: Lost in the Mike Gundy meltdown was the fact that Zac Robinson was a much better quarterback than Bobby Reid, and he possesses one high ceiling as a college fantasy quarterback. Robinson’s sophomore season saw him put up better fantasy numbers than the likes of Matt Ryan, Sam Bradford and Patrick White, and while there is certainly growth needed in the pocket, a quarterback with the ability to run for over 800 yards with nine scores on the ground will be a valuable commodity come draft day. This offense will be led by Robinson and TE Brandon Pettigrew. By all accounts Robinson is a solid worker and Pettigrew’s recent legal transgression is likely a blip on the radar screen. Both will provide sound fantasy options in 2008. Fantasy sleeper of 2008: The Cowboys will likely welcome incoming freshman Kye Staley, and the talented young man from Oklahoma will look to serve primarily as a runner following a high school career spent as a field general. He will only make a sound keeper option as Kendall Hunter returns following a great true freshman campaign. Hunter shined while providing a rest for Dantrell Savage, and it’ll be interesting to see what this young man can do with carries befitting a #1 back. Coming off a rookie season with over 800 yards from scrimmage and five scores, it’s a bit weak to deem Hunter a sleeper. But you can bet that many, while caught up in the incredible talent residing in the conference, will overlook this promising back. Joining Hunter the 2008 OSU youth movement is a stud sophomore, who like Hunter, is from the great state of Texas. Dez Bryant may emerge as Z-Rob’s number one target, and coming off a 43-622-6 season, Bryant will be one that many look to as a breakout star. 2008 Fantasy Outlook: Robinson and Pettigrew lead the charge, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Pettigrew kick out an All-Big XII season, even with the number of good tight ends in the conference. This is a team that will look to incorporate some young talent into the system, and the fantasy success of the unit will hinge on how quickly these relative newbies can make an impact. The Cowboys opened up the 2007 season with a tough trip to Athens, and the 2008 season opener should be a tad easier, and it may be one of the season’s most interesting non-conference shootouts. The Cowboys will travel to Seattle to take on Washington State, a squad that will look to spread them out and wing it in Paul Wulff’s system. Following the trip out west the Cowboys will spend the next four weeks at Boone Pickens Stadium as they welcome Houston, Missouri State and Troy before Texas A&M open up the conference season. This early-season slate will make dem Cowboys a bit more inviting on draft day. Texas Will be missed in 2008: Following his explosion against Nebraska we had a feeling that Jamaal Charles may look to make some money next year. Charles seemed primed to make a late-season push, and he did just that, going for 897-10 in his final five games. A season that at one point looked like it may be derailed by a serious case of fumbleitis suddenly became a money run, as Charles is a prime example of the NFL’s infatuation with speed. He’s got a little bit of former Badger Michael Bennett in him, and Charles will be a very good pro. In addition to Charles, Longhorns’ fans will also be dealing with the loss of wide receivers Limas Sweed and Nate Jones. While Sweed’s season didn’t make it past October due to an injured wrist, Jones did a nice job of filling in as the number one wide receiver. Some new talent will have to emerge as prime targets for Colt McCoy, but if Mack Brown has proven anything, getting top talent to come to Austin is not a problem. Someone will emerge as the perfect complement to Quan Cosby. Fantasy Star of 2008: Colt McCoy followed up his outstanding freshman campaign with just a pretty good sophomore season. McCoy is going to be the Texas fantasy star in 2008, but there are concerns over his ability to match the impressive touchdown numbers of his first two seasons. First and foremost, another season on an 18-interception pace will see John Chiles on the field with much greater frequency. McCoy also will have to deal with the losses of his number one back, top two wideouts, and relatively disappointing (yet extremely talented) tight end Jermichael Finley. If McCoy does struggle then Vondrell McGee becomes the likely workhorse. It is expected that McGee, regardless of what stud back commits, will enter fall camp as the number one running back option. McGee was largely ignored in most keeper drafts last season, but he’s got definite touchdown vulture tendencies. Eight touchdowns in 75 carries should have owners behaving like one of Pavlov’s puppies…touchdowns = good. Fantasy Sleeper of 2008: It should come from the wide receiver group. Prime candidates include two members of the class of 2007: James Kirkendoll and Malcolm Williams. While I like these guys based on recruiting stuff from last year and reports out of Longhorn camp, it’s simply an educated guess. The Longhorns have a plethora of young wide receiver talent, and playing time will be determined in practice battles beginning in spring ball and likely continuing throughout the season. This is another stay-tuned scenario. John Chiles is a great fantasy sleeper, but only if Colt McCoy suffers an injury. Chiles will definitely see the field more, but he’ll be the change-of-pace quarterback as this is Colt McCoy’s team. Looking for even another sleeper? Remember the name of RB Fozzy Whitaker. Still looking? Wait and see where Darrell Scott decides to matriculate. 2008 Fantasy Outlook: It’s Texas. Enough said. There’s an obscene abundance of talent in Austin, but there is also an abundance of players that will battle for starting jobs. I really like Vondrell McGee (he’s a keeper of mine) but I’m worried about Mack’s love for the homerun back. Colt McCoy is coming off a disappointing fantasy season, he has a stable of unproven thoroughbreds split wide, and he’ll be breaking in new receiver at TE. The fantasy options for the Longhorns will likely not emerge until fall camp. In addition to all those power programs breaking in new coaches, special attention must be paid to Austin this summer. Texas A&M Will be missed next year: Last we saw of Texas A&M their running back was crying because he didn’t get the ball and Dennis Franchione was preparing his insider email update to big donors as to why he didn’t get the ball. Now Coach Fran has been canned, a rather surprising head coaching hire has been made, and Mike Sherman wants his big back to lose a little weight. This should be interesting. Tight end Martellus Bennett, the Aggies’ number one receiving option, has moved on to Sundays, and he’ll be a tough one to replace. Bennett’s 49-587-4 season placed him in the upper echelon of Big XII tight ends, and the charismatic TE was a pretty consistent option for his owners as he was good for about 45 receiving yards on a weekly basis. While his numbers may have been disappointing to those that spent a high pick on Bennett, the Aggies will miss their big target. Fantasy Star of 2008: Despite the rough ending to his season, it’s hard to not consider big Jorvorskie, he of 44 touchdowns in three years, the Aggie offensive star in 2008. Mr. Lane is a bowling ball around the goal line, and while his rushing yardage will never overwhelm his owners, he’s always a threat for a four-score game. As alluded to earlier, Coach Sherman has expressed his desire for a slimmer and trimmer Jorvorskie Lane, and whether this actually happens or not won’t be known until August. Still even a Lane at about 280 lbs. should still get a bunch of goal line carries, and he’s a near lock for 12-15 scores. Fantasy sleeper of 2008: Mike Goodson could be our sleeper based on expectations of a big junior campaign on the horizon, but with Jorvorskie in the fold, Goodson’s goal line touches will be limited. To put up six Goodson has to run a little ways. So we’ll look to Martellus Bennett’s likely replacement, Frank Avery. Avery is a very intriguing prospect who goes about 6-5. Mike Sherman has shown, in his time as both coordinator and head coach in that other league, that he knows how to utilize tight ends. This makes Bennett’s decision to forego his senior year a disappointment due to complaints that the TE spot was underutilized during the Franchione era. 2008 Team Fantasy Outlook: There is no truth to the rumor that Mike Sherman wore a Member’s Only jacket while discussing his hip new west-coast offense. In a move that reeks of Bill Callahan, the Aggies have raided the pro ranks for a coach that runs the offense of 3-yard slants. In all fairness, pedigree and offensive systems is where the Sherman-Callahan similarities should end. Sherman is an A&M guy and very well-received and he’ll put everything into the gig. Beyond Lane though, the Aggies will likely be a squad to avoid on draft day. For some strange reason, 18-20 year old kids just seem to struggle with the offense that Bill Walsh built. Stephen McGee will see an improvement in numbers, but not enough to warrant fantasy consideration beyond a backup role. Frank Avery will be a nice little sleeper. It’ll be a wait-and-see with the receiving group. If forced to identify a couple of wideouts to watch for a possible explosion I’d name incoming recruits Jeff Fuller and Sedrick Johnson. Each will be afforded the opportunity to play after a rather uninspiring 2007 wide receiving recruiting crop. Texas Tech Will be missed in 2008: Passing yards have been traditionally been spread around pretty evenly in the Texas Tech offense. This all changed in 2007 as Michael Crabtree showed an unwillingness to share, and while his rookie campaign was one for the ages, his fellow wideouts were forced to fight over scraps. Among this group was senior Danny Amendola, and he proved an excellent complementary receiver with an impressive 109-1245-6. While nothing has been announced there is certainly a chance that we’ve seen the last of Shannon Woods in a Red Raider uniform. Shannon Woods spent a large portion of the season in the Mike Leach doghouse, and when he was sent home prior to the Gator Bowl this certainly didn’t bode well for his future in Lubbock. Mike Leach may have run out of patience with Mr. Woods, and this is disappointing for those who protected Woods with visions of Taurean Henderson dancing in their head. Fantasy star in 2008: As usual there are a whole lotta of Red Raider fantasy stars. Graham Harrell will be a top-five quarterback, and Crabtree will be the consensus #1 national wide receiver. Any owner fortunate enough to own either, or heaven forbid, both, will have two starting roles that will be season-long no brainers. Crabtree may struggle to meet his 2007 numbers and Harrell may see Tyler Potts worked in a little bit more in anticipation of his Graham’s 2009 absence. Still these two will exceed the season fantasy numbers of most by the time October rolls around. Crabtree is coming off a 134-1962-22 year that saw him struggle to keep up down the stretch. Even if he has ½ the season next year, he’s still a top fantasy wide receiver. Just don’t expect that type of drop-off. His talent, coupled with the system, makes a healthy Crabcakes a lock for a 100-1500-15 season. And a healthy Harrell is a lock for 5000 yards and he’ll push 50 touchdowns. Additionally look for wide receiver Eric Morris (75-767-9), who came on strong as the season wore on, to emerge as the beneficiary of the attention paid to Crabtree. He, along with Edward Britton and Lyle Leong, are top national wide receivers, even as options number two through four on their own team’s depth chart. Fantasy sleeper of 2008: Mike Leach thought enough of running back Aaron Crawford and the aforementioned Leong to give each significant playing time. Crawford should emerge as the number one running back, and this may be regardless of Woods’ status. As has been the case with recent Tech tailbacks, the potential receiving yards should shoot him up draft boards. If you’re looking down the road then you’ll want to invest a pick in incoming running back recruit Harrison Jeffers. All I’ve heard about this kid is that he is explosive with great breakaway speed. The Lawton, OK native is a top incoming back, and Coach Leach could have some with him as soon as next season. At wide receiver Leong will push Eric Morris for the number two spot in Graham Harrell’s heart while the signal caller scans the field. Leong’s likely inconsistent numbers make him more attractive to those playing in total points leagues. Plug him in and leave him there. Because it’s Texas Tech and I just can’t help myself, you’ll also want to keep an eye on receivers Detron Lewis and Adrian Reese, all 6’7” of him. 2008 Fantasy Outlook: What’s a matter wit you? No explanation is needed. However I will ramble for a while on one of my favorite coaches. I love Mike Leach. In a profession full of blockhead coaches with the wit and personality of fleas, it’s refreshing to watch an innovative master work his craft. Dude went to BYU for undergrad, Pepperdine for law school and he’s well-read, articulate and a hell of a lot of fun during press conferences. He’s worked under Bob Stoops and he’s coached in Finland. I, for one, am glad he decided to stay at Texas Tech. If there’s any way that UCLA ended up passing on this guy in favor of the gambling, guitar-playing hippie who runs a loose ship, then shame on them. Little rant over.

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