Best of the Rest: 2008 Look Ahead

Brian McDonald
Senior Editor
March 10, 2008
We conclude our first looks at 2008 with the some of the offensively explosive non-BCS squads and the formerly explosive Notre Dame Fighting Irish. As 2008 is shaping up to be a year of major transition in the college fantasy football world, the following schools will be fertile drafting ground. In fact, one could argue that the majority of top fantasy running backs will come from places like Boise, Provo and Tulsa and not from some of the more traditional, big-name power programs. If you ignore the little guys you’ll likely be in for a long season. Spring practice is upon us, so it’s time to get moving. As we’ve done with all look-aheads we’ll first reflect upon 2007 before breaking out our crystal ball. Below are the positional leaders from the non-BCS schools and their fantasy point total. An asterisk denotes a player who will not return in 2008. 2007 Indy Non-BCS Fanatasy Leaders QB: Paul Smith* 498.76 RB: Kevin Smith* 367.26 RB: Matt Forte’* 298.73 WR: Chad Hall* 229.46 WR: Dante Love 178.00 TE: Darius Hill 127.73 K: John Sullivan 117.00 D: Utah Boise St. Will be missed in 2008: Completing his Boise career with 3340 yards and 31 touchdowns, Taylor Tharp will prove a difficult, but not irreplaceable act to follow. He replaced the legendary Jared Zabransky, and while Boise was unable to duplicate its 2006 success, Tharp was a consistent fantasy performer. Granted in BSU’s three losses (@ Washington, @Hawaii and @East Carolina) Tharp could only manage three touchdown passes against six interceptions, and no fantasy team likely won a championship with Tharp as their number one…but did have a three-game mid-season stretch that saw him toss 13 scores. He was a solid quarterback who seized the opportunity in his senior season. Fantasy Star of 2008: Ian Johnson is our number one national running back heading into 2008, and while some may see this as an indication of the considerable amount of talent that has moved on to Sundays, we’re convinced that Ian Johnson could easily return to his 25-score form of 2006. Johnson sat out two games and was banged up for nearly all of 2007, yet he was still able to account for 17 scores. Word that Johnson is bulking up in hopes of improving his durability while looking better for NFL scouts is pleasing as well. A case can be made that other fantasy backs should be number one, but we’ll go for the guy who’s done it before and is coming back with something to prove in 2008. Fantasy sleeper of 2008: Jeremy Avery’s presence and 2007 production (over 800 yards from scrimmage and 10 scores) are reasons one may doubt the production we’re anticipating from Johnson. Avery is a home run threat every time he touches the ball, and he’ll certainly see the field in 2008. If all goes as planned we believe it’s 2009 when Avery will make a national impact. If Johnson cannot shake his injury bug and misses a significant amount of time then Avery will step in and may never look back. Even if Johnson does goes crazy and Avery spends a great deal of time sitting on his helmet you still have a top keeper back down the road. 2008 Team Fantasy Outlook: The number one issue surrounding Boise deals with leading receiver Jeremy Childs (82-1045-9 in 2007) and his suspension from the school. Childs had a classroom issue that suspended him from BSU for the current semester, however all signs point to Childs returning to campus this summer. By all reports Childs is a good guy who just made a dumb mistake, and his return will go a long way to making the ’08 Boise offense as explosive as we’ve become accustomed to seeing. The number two issue surrounds finding a replacement for Tharp. Using the then-senior Tharp’s ascension to the starting job last year as our primary evidence (because we’ve seen very little from all main competitors for the starting gig) we’ll tab Bush Hamden as the likely starter. He’s certainly been around long enough to have a pretty decent understanding of what Coach Peterson wants out of his signal caller. If he can’t deliver then we’re looking at Michael Coughlin, Nick Lomax (whose dad Neil is the former NFL QB once threw seven touchdowns in a single quarter while at Portland State) or some highly regarded redshirt cat named Kellen Moore. The latter three could all walk up and kick me in the head and I wouldn’t know who they were, so this will be a battle I’ll be watching, if only for my own protection. Boise has to replace its quarterback and its best receiver is sitting at home while suspended. Ian Johnson is hoping to bounce back, and there are definite holes on the offensive line. Yet we’re anointing Boise as a top fantasy squad in 2008 simply because it’s Boise. BYU Will be missed in 2008: Wide receiver Matt Allen moves on and this will be the only significant offensive loss for the Cougars. Coach Bronco Mendenhall has a very exciting offense on his hands. Fantasy star of 2008: We love Harvey Unga, and this adoration goes well beyond our joy at screaming his last name at the top of our lungs. He’s coming off a season that saw him gain nearly 1900 yards from scrimmage while gobbling up 17 touchdowns. He is certainly a top non-BCS back. He’s young, talented and he has nearly his entire offensive line returning…and yet we’re a little concerned. Joining Unga during running back drills will be Fui Vakapuna, another powerful back looking to rebound from his injury woes so he can resume running people over, and then there’s another talented back in Manase Tonga. These two dudes cause me to temper my UNGA mania a bit, although the multi-dimensional sophomore will likely be the big Provo producer. Fantasy sleeper of 2008: Normally we’d be all over a freshman like TE Austin Holt in a Rob Gronkowski kind of way. However Holt, the polished incoming recruit, will have to compete with the likes of Dennis Pitta (59-813-5) for looks down the seam. When a fantasy geek also factors in the presence of solid tight ends Andrew George and Vic So’Oto, it’s difficult to envision Holt putting up huge numbers right now. But if you’re in a keeper league there may be no better long-term tight end fantasy prospect than Holt. Bronco has shown a willingness to make the TE a key offensive component, and this kid is going to shine when afforded the opportunity. 2008 Fantasy Outlook: This is a great offensive unit with a ton of young talent, but the game of American football only allows one ball in play at a time, and this means we’re likely to see some hurt and confused fantasy owners as points will be spread around quite a bit. Max Hall (3848-27) is an excellent option at quarterback, though the passing scores lost to those greedy running backs will prove annoying. He’s joined by lots of good players, and I’ve yet to mention wide receiver Austin Collie (a top national WR) among the rest of the aforementioned skill talent. Now for the good/bad news: BYU's defense needs to replace seven defensive starters, and considering this conference will never be confused with one that plays great defense anyway, BYU could be in for some score fests not seen since Cinemax after dark. This team will be a lot of fun to watch, and paying customers will likely get their money’s worth. Central Michigan Will be missed in 2008: Having matriculated only about an hour from Central Michigan, I often spent weekends lost in a lovely casino in Mount Pleasant, attempting to drastically increase the money gained schlepping bean soup and au gratin potatoes to the senior citizens of East Lansing. Now that I’m more mature and casinos have popped up closer to home, there’s a new reason to head to Chip Land, and it involves a pretty exciting offense that other than wide receiver Justin Gardner, returns just about everyone from 2007. Fantasy star of 2008: Call us crazy, but we think a case can be made to anoint Dan LeFevour (nearly 4800 yards and 47 touchdowns) as the top 2008 fantasy quarterback…in the country. In his final nine games LeFevour had three 6-touchdown games, two 4-touchdown games and three 3-touchdown outings. Only against Clemson did LeFevour let owners down, yet he still threw two in Death Valley. After only two years leading CMU LeFevour holds nearly every quarterbacking record at the school, and he’s only getting better. While it’s hard to imagine LeFevour going before the likes of the returning Heisman Trophy winner, the numbers show this may be the way to go. Fantasy sleeper of 2008: With a signal caller like LeFevour the sleeper has to be a wide receiver, eh? We’ll go with Kito Poblah, a redshirt sophomore whom LeFevour looked to down the stretch. He’s joined out wide by ball hogs like Bryan Anderson (90-1132-10) and Antonio Brown (102-1003-6 (plus two other scores) so Poblah is forced to share a little bit, but this kid has a great deal of upside. A talented athlete, Poblah was switched from DB to WR last season and he showed an impressive ability to make plays, most notably a three-game run down the stretch that saw him catch a TD in each game. He appears to have earned the trust of his quarterback, and he has a knack for scoring six. 2008 Fantasy Outlook: There are some excellent running back and receiver options at Central Michigan. Justin Hoskins and Ontario Sneed will likely split carries, and it does appear that Sneed’s missed time last year opened the door for Hoskins to emerge as the number one back. Hoskins surpassed 800 total yards while scoring 12 times, so he’s a top returning back in the MAC. This team is explosive, and it’ll be interesting to see if they can hang around when they make their early-season trek to Athens to tackle the Dawgs. They also play Purdue…again, and could return from Bloomington with a win. A healthy LeFevour may match his 47-score output of a year ago, and each of the three receivers could push towards 100 catches. This team will be fun. Hawaii Will be missed in 2008: Everybody. Fantasy Star of 2008: If Tyler Graunke wins the starting job then he’ll be the fantasy star and a likely top national producer. If he continues to screw up and blows the chance to drive the Porsche, then it’s wide-open, and Inoki Funaki will be the favorite to lead the squad. Funaki, following a church mission and some redshirt time, is 25 years old, so he likely won’t make too many off-field mistakes, but he may also struggle with staying awake during late team meetings. Malcolm Lane (14-270-2) returns to help lead a green group of receivers. Fantasy sleeper of 2008: If Graunke continues to make poor decisions and Funaki struggles to lead the squad, then incoming JUCO Greg Alexander could come from nowhere. Although the likelihood of this kid making a serious move in 2008 isn’t great. We’ll make our true sleeper wide receiver Michael Washington, a lad who has patiently waited his turn while sitting behind some pretty decorated wide receivers. Remember this kid’s name. 2008 Fantasy Outlook: Remember when the Florida Marlins won the World Series back in 1997 with a team full of big-time producers and then returned the following year with nothing but unknowns? This is college football’s version of a fire sale, and Hawaii is hoping that they don’t see similar next-season results. Hawaii did the easy thing and replaced June Jones with former defensive coordinator Greg McMakin, who’ll look to continue the freewheeling attack that has made Hawaii players such great fantasy producers. McMakin has connections going all the way back to Run & Shoot guru Mouse Davis, and former WR Coach Ron Lee has been promoted to offensive coordinator. Even with this lack of total upheaval, there is ample reason for concern. Proceed with caution when it comes to this squad. Last year Hawaii players littered (get it…litter, like on their field?) our draft board and this year they’re nowhere to be found. Things can change rather quickly. The starting quarterback, be it Tyler Graunke or Inoki Funaki, will still be the starting quarterback in a Run & Shoot scheme, so he’ll put up very good numbers. Still we’re anticipating a significant drop-off from the production we took for granted while June Jones was calling plays for the likes of Timmy Chang and Colt Brennan. New Mexico State Will be missed in 2008: Wide receiver Derek Dubois moves on. He saw his senior season interrupted by both injuries and a suspension, and this, along with the injury difficulties suffered by fellow WR Chris Williams, caused the failure of New Mexico State to develop any real camaraderie and flow in the passing game. Tight end Nick Cleaver also departs, and Kyle Nelson may grab his 33 receptions from the TE spot. While Dubois and Cleaver should both be missed in 2008, we will likely see a significantly improved offensive unit, provided the injury bug can be avoided. Fantasy Star of 2008: Quarterback Chase Holbrook, unhappy with his projection as a second day draft selection, decided to come back and this decision may end up saving his head coach’s job. Holbrook struggled through a 3866-28 passing season, so the potential for a considerable bump in numbers is definitely there. A healthy Chris Williams could make Holbrook a top-three fantasy quarterback at season’s end. Williams will look to overcome a difficult 2007 that still saw him register 11 touchdowns. It is possible that we could witness Williams come close to doubling his 56-772-11 output of a season ago. Think that’s a tad too optimistic? Consider that Williams essentially missed six games in 2007. He’s talented and like his quarterback, is ready for a big rebound campaign. Fantasy Sleeper of 2008: We’re cheating again. We’re deeming A.J. Harris, a receiver who returns following a 81-611-2 season a sleeper. But like Williams, we could really see a significant spike in Harris’ numbers. J.J McDermott, a highly regarded quarterback from a couple of years ago, is the heir-apparent at quarterback. Should Holbrook miss significant time he’ll be ready to step right in and produce. His fantasy value as a keeper is likely dependent on what type of season the Aggies have in 2008. A good season may keep Hal Mumme around a little while longer, and this would be good news to anyone who has been a fantasy beneficiary of his wide-open attack. 2008 Fantasy Outlook: The 2008 season could be Hal Mumme’s last stand, and whether or not this is the case, the Aggies will come out firing. I’m a firm believer that injuries tend to even out over the course the time, therefore New Mexico State is due for a relatively healthy season from his skill position players. Holbrook and Williams will be fantasy stars, and A.J Harris may not be far behind. You could do a lot worse in 2008 than to rely on any or all of the three to help lead your fantasy squad. Notre Dame Will be missed in 2008: Going into 2007 we alluded to the fact that TE John Carlson would find himself very lonely due to the departure of many of his offensive teammates. We had no idea how alone Carlson would actually be. The greatest offensive mind of all time struggled to coach his team into the end zone, and Carlson couldn’t become the consistent safety valve many (including us) expected him to be. 40-372-2 doesn’t seem like a great fantasy season, but considering Notre Dame’s offensive difficulties it’s hard to imagine Antonio Gates doing much more. Carlson, along with tough Travis Thomas, will leave South Bend and while both will be missed, a fresh start with young talent may be best for all parties. Fantasy star of 2008: There is no clear-cut fantasy star. Freshman RB Robert Hughes took over at the end of the year and looked pretty good, especially against Duke and Stanford, but these games were against…Duke and Stanford. Freshman Duval Kumara looked good as well, matching Hughes’ four-touchdown output for the season. Kumara’s best game was his 5-44-2 output against Navy. The influx of more talent that the gurus deem part of another great recruiting class essentially makes every job up for grabs, and this includes the signal caller spot, where Jimmy Clausen found it difficult to throw while he was pulling sod from his face mask. Though even when he did have time to throw every so often, I can’t say Clausen looked especially impressive. Struggling with both the deep ball, but especially deep sideline patterns, Clausen looked like a guy whose arm just wasn’t right. Hopefully for his sake and the sake of the Irish, Clausen will show the form that caused so many to show up at the obnoxious press conference announcing his college choice. If Clausen doesn’t show significant strides then Dane Crist could emerge as the next anointed one. Fantasy sleeper of 2008: Because any of the three could make noise immediately, we’re going to deem incoming recruits Crist, Jonas Gray (RB) and Michael Floyd (WR) as the ones to watch. In reality however, any one offensive player on the roster could be deemed a sleeper-the offense was that bad in 2007. 2008 Fantasy Outlook: While it’s certainly cliché, it’s also appropriate to say that it can’t get any worse. One has to believe that Charlie Weis will learn from his team’s 2007 growing pains and show a marked improvement. Yet it’s hard to see this team becoming an offensive threat, as it will have to learn on the fly while playing their typically difficult schedule. I’m not Irish bashing-rather I’m looking at a woeful offense from a year ago that showed signs of life only against service academies and mediocre opponents. Take a wait-and-see approach with the Irish offensive unit. There is a quarterback job to be worked out and the running back and wide receiver positions are as clear as the Detroit River. Rice Will be missed in 2008: Only wide receiver Joel Armstrong moves along. This is good news for Rice fans. Fantasy star of 2008: Following a very slow start that had owners doubting the selections of QB Chase Clement, WR Jarett Dillard and TE James Casey, the Rice Owls began to click and eventually Clement and Dillard had the seasons that most had expected. No performance was no more indicative of Rice’s offensive turnaround than Clement’s performance against UTEP where he accounted for nearly 500 yards of offense and eight scores. When the smoke of the 2007 season had cleared Clement was sitting at nearly 4000 yards of offense to go along with 37 scores. Not bad for a guy who had five touchdowns after four games. As Clement went so did his top target, and Dillard did eventually catch fire at the about the same time many of his owners were eliminated from championship contention. Dillard’s numbers (79-1057-14) don’t reflect his poor start in which he was held out of the end zone for the first four games. Once rolling he didn’t stop as he ended the season on a four-game scoring streak and 10 scores in his final six games. The conclusion to the 2007 bodes well for both Rice stars as they look to remain college fantasy football stalwarts. Fantasy sleeper of 2008: He’s a top-ten tight end, yet he’s listed as a sleeper. This is partly due to confusion over his position and partly due to our raised expectations as he’s a man amongst boys. James Casey is a commissioner’s worst nightmare. Listed as a tight end by most, Casey lined up at quarterback, running back, wide receiver and a little defensive end in addition to tight end in 2007. His passing and rushing numbers weren’t much to brag about, but when the season was over he had touched the ball 91 times, gained over 700 yards and scored nine times. Do you think there are too many tight ends that will get 91 touches? Casey, a 23-year-old freshman in 2007, is quite the story. He was a pitching prospect in the Chicago White Sox system for a stretch and now he’s one of the oldest sophomores in the country. Convince your commish that he’s a tight end and you’ve got one of the best in the nation. 2008 Fantasy Outlook: The outlook is much better than it was last October. With Clement, Dillard and Casey we have three highly ranked fantasy stars for a team that isn’t very good. They can’t stop anybody, and they’ll be in nothing but shootouts. SMU Will be missed in 2008: Wide receiver Zack Sledge moves on following a 49-729-10 senior campaign. Sledge was good for multiple TD games on occasion, and he would’ve certainly thrived in the new system. Alas he moves on with his life and we’re looking for other receivers ready to step up. Fantasy star of 2008: QB Justin Willis’ spring ball suspension for a violation of team rules throws a little monkey wrench into our fantasy projections, and while we’re still under the impression that he’ll be there when camp opens, this development does cause concern that at a time when Coach Jones is installing good portions of his offense, his likely field general is suspended. If Willis doesn’t return then the starting battle likely becomes one between youngsters Logan Turner and Zach Rhodes. WR Emmanuel Sanders returns following a 74-889-9 season and he could conceivably settle in behind Michael Crabtree as the #2 wide receiver by season’s end. Fantasy sleeper of 2008: Jones signed one quarterback in this class and his name is Braden Smith. Just file this one away. As for sleepers than can be useful in 2008 one should look to the running game. If either James Mapps or Demyron Martin emerges as the number one back, then he may be worth a look. Split carries means each should be avoided. You’ll also want to monitor (ok…we’ll do it for you) spring and fall camp to see which other wide receivers emerge as likely starters. For starters Columbus Givens seems interesting. 2008 Fantasy Outlook: I’m convinced that June Jones would’ve accepted the coaching job at a junior high for the blind just to avoid Hawaii’s late-August trip to Tebowland. Instead SMU came calling, and we no longer have to hear Jones whine about recruiting budgets and such. For the first time since the death penalty was handed down in 1987, there is legitimate cause for optimism and it stems from June Jones’ offense, and the likelihood that he’ll be able to convince skill position talent to remain in the heart of Dallas and rebuild the proud Mustangs’ tradition. While not a huge fan of June Jones, I believe he’ll get it done. This year will likely be the start of an exciting new era for fans starving for a reawakening, with the key to this year being Justin Willis’ ability to get back into his coach’s good graces. If Willis can make his coach happy then he’s a top-ten national quarterback, and the Mustangs will come out of the gate throwing. Tulsa Will be missed in 2008: Tulsa loses the top fantasy quarterback from 2007. Paul Smith accounted for over 5100 yards of offense and 60, yes 60, touchdowns. The battle to replace Smith and be given the keys to the Malzahn mobile will be one of the most closely watched position competitions this off-season. Fantasy Star of 2008: Whoever wins the quarterback job will become not only the Tulsa fantasy star but also a potential top ten national pick. Nothing against Paul Smith, who was the one out there accounting for 60 scores last season, but offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn’s system is so good that we expect very little drop off from whoever takes over. The battle for the job will come down to David Johnson and incoming JUCO recruit Jacob Bower. Johnson’s primary strength is that he’s already worked in Gus’ system, but my hunch has the hotshot JUCO recruit Bower, who will participate in spring practice, winning the job. Joining the starting quarterback as a fantasy option is running back Tarion Adams who touched the ball 249 times, gained over 1500 yards and scored 13 times. Joining Adams in the backfield is receiving threat Charles Clay who, in addition to his 57-304-1 on the ground, also went for 69-1024-7 while catching swings and dumps. Out wide we have steady Trae Johnson (70-1088-13) and big-play (39-1244-11) Brennan Marion. Each will put up big numbers once again. Fantasy sleeper of 2008: Courtney Tennial has been granted a 6th year of eligibility. Tennial, who rushed for 845 and 14 in 2006, missed last season with a torn Achilles tendon. The stout power back becomes one to watch provided he can return to his form of two years ago. 2008 Team Fantasy Outlook: In Gus we trust. It’s that simple. The man is a prep coaching legend in Arkansas, gave us the McFadden keeper in 2007 and in only his second stop in the college ranks, he’s one who will likely be a head coach very soon. Unlike his days in Arkansas, head coach Todd Graham gives Malzahn the freedom to run his offense his way, and his way will pay huge dividends for those college fantasy owners who invest lineup spots in Tulsa’s offense stars. Other Notables Others that Will be missed in 2008: (by postion & team) QB Omar Haugabook, Troy QB Kevin O'Connell, San Diego State RB Kevin Smith, Central Florida RB Chris Johnson, East Carolina RB Anthony Alridge, Houston RB Calvin Dawson, Louisiana Monroe RB Kalvin McRae, Ohio RB Jalen Parmele, Toledo RB Matt Forte’, Tulane RB Marcus Thomas, UTEP WR Jabari Arthur, Akron WR/RB Chad Hall, Air Force WR Donnie Avery, Houston WR Zach Sledge, SMU Other Fantasy Stars of 2008: (by postion & team) QB Nate Davis, Ball State QB Tyler Sheehan, Bowling Green QB Rusty Smith, Florida Atlantic QB Case Keenum, Houston QB Blake Joseph, Houston QB Colin Kaepernick, Nevada QB Trevor Vittatoe RB Anthony Turner, Bowling Green RB James Starks, Buffalo RB Gartrell Johnson, Colorado State RB Ryan Mathews, Fresno State RB Eugene Jarvis, Kent State RB Eric Kettani, Navy RB Shun White, Navy RB Luke Lippincott, Nevada RB Rodney Ferguson, New Mexico RB Justin Anderson, Northern Illinios RB Damion Fletcher, Southern Mississippi RB Aaron Brown, TCU RB Joseph Turner, TCU RB Darrell Mack, Utah WR Dante Love, Ball State WR Austin Collie, BYU WR Cortez Gent, Florida Atlantic WR Carlos Singleton, Memphis WR Marko Mitchell, Nevada WR Casey Fitzgerald, North Texas WR Kevin Jurovich, San Jose State WR DeAndre Brown, Southern Miss WR Jeff Moturi, UTEP TE Darius Hill, Ball State TE Bear Pascoe, Fresno State TE Cody Slate, Marshall TE Andrew Mooney, Ohio There it is. A quick look at some non-BCS (and ND) squads expected to be raided by owners on draft day. Truth be told we probably could’ve written a good deal about Ball State and their three stars and Nevada is likely due some more consideration. Rest assured that each player of fantasy significance will be given his due attention as we prepare for another season of college fantasy football action.

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