I suppose that when you miss in the world of prognostication, you should miss big. While I enjoyed a nice bit of success with my Week Six sits/starts, the real miss that bugged me as I sat down to run the numbers was Dominique Davis at East Carolina.
I mean, he didn’t just essentially put up a goose egg for fantasy players, he got benched – against Houston. Not that I want to disparage the Cougars or their defense, but…it’s Houston.
An apology on my part simply isn’t good enough. Dominique Davis drop-kicked fantasy owners in the soft spot, leaving them rolling on the ground in pain and suffering. I, for one, will have a hard time forgiving him for that.
My starts were all solid except for Davis, though I suspected Mannion would do a little more. He’s a youngster and I should have suspected that interceptions will plague him a bit moving ahead.
The “sits” performed as expected except for Miami’s Jacory Harris, who put up some nice numbers for the Canes. I’m glad to see that because I’ve been a long-time Jacory Harris fan, but found his continual inconsistencies not only nauseating, but unforgivable to my fantasy rosters.
Here are last week’s guys with their fantasy average number attached.
Starts -- Collin Klein, Kansas State (24), Sean Mannion, Oregon State (18), Seth Doege, Texas Tech (33), Kriss Proctor, Navy (25), Tyler Tettleton, Ohio (24), Dominique Davis, East Carolina (0).
Sits -- Tyler Hansen, Colorado (13), Jacory Harris, Miami (28), James Vandenberg, Iowa (1), Brett Smith, Wyoming (13), Ryan Radcliff, Central Michigan (13), Derek Carr, Fresno State (2).
So, looking ahead and ready to roll, here are some Week 7 names to keep in mind.
Tevin Washington, Georgia Tech
Here’s your dual-threat option this week. Even though this is on the road, I don’t expect Virginia to get in the way of the Yellow Jacket offense. What’s nice about Washington is that even though he doesn’t pass a lot, when he does he’s usually effective and it often produces a big play (10 touchdown passes this year). I think Washington is good for two, maybe three scores in this one in a combined land-air assault on the Cavaliers defense.
Connor Shaw, South Carolina
With Stephen Garcia finally on the bench, Shaw started last week and topped 300 yards passing with four touchdowns on the day. Granted, it was against Kentucky, but the drama that has been the South Carolina quarterback situation has apparently gotten a rewrite – and Shaw looked pretty good in the part. On the road at Mississippi State (and its 19th ranked pass defense) may be dicey for the new quarterback, but with a running game to offer protection, here’s betting Shaw makes it two good outings in the row.
Darron Thomas, Oregon
Yeah, the Ducks run the snot out of the ball, but this important showdown with a hot Arizona State team will come down to Thomas. No word yet on what will happen with running back LaMichael James’ dislocated elbow, but the Ducks have a stable of playmaking running backs to take his place, just in case. The Sun Devils will look to keep that running game bottled up, pushing the outcome of this one in Thomas’ hands. I like that option even better in this game, particularly in the friendly confines of Autzen Stadium. The Ducks will win and Thomas will have a big day offensively.
Bryant Moniz, Hawaii
Sometimes it’s easy to forget about Moniz toiling so productively out in the South Pacific. At an initial glance, it doesn’t “feel” as spectacular statistically as a year ago, but Moniz is averaging three touchdown passes and more than 300 yards a game, so he’s on pace for about 4,000 yards and 40 scores. While the Warriors often struggle on the road, I don’t see San Jose State keeping Moniz from hitting those averages. The beauty of Moniz is that the Warriors don’t stop throwing. So even if he’s having an off day, he’ll still deliver some stats to enjoy.
G.J. Kinne, Tulsa
Here’s a guy who has struggled to get back to his previous form – but may just be ready to break out. Kinne has struggled with some injuries this season and has but six scoring tosses through the season’s first four games. Fortunately, North Texas afforded him the opportunity to get refocused and he delivered with 314 yards and three scores in his last outing. I’m at a loss while looking for reasons that a visiting UAB defense will do much better. Kinne appears to be healthy at last and while he’s probably fallen off the radar of a lot of fantasy players, he’s a guy who has plenty of game left – and the fantasy production on tap to prove it.
Matt Christian, New Mexico State
Hard to believe anyone in his right mind would ever, ever suggest you pick up a quarterback from New Mexico State – but here it is. Christian schooled New Mexico last week and with the leaky faucet that is Idaho’s pass defense, it could very well happen again. With this one at home, I like Christian to torch Idaho’s 108th ranked pass defense and, dare I say it, to go over 300 yards again.
Aaron Murray, Georgia
I don’t know if Vanderbilt’s defense is for real, but the Bulldogs don’t scare a lot of people on offense anymore, and they are on the road at Vandy. Murray hasn’t been bad, but he’s not been “great” in any of the Bulldogs games so far. He had a four-touchdown game against South Carolina and then threw for three the next week against Coastal Carolina, but that’s about the extent of his run. He hasn’t passed for 300 yards yet this season, so don’t expect it here. Given Vanderbilt’s solid defense and playing at home, a line of 250-2-2 is about right.
Denard Robinson, Michigan
Simply because I want to make it hard on myself, I pick this trip to Michigan State as one of the two games the rest of the way that Robinson doesn’t do his normal damage in. Yes, I realize he’s a must start player at this point, but my question is who have the Wolverines played – and where? They’ve enjoyed beating up on two other Michigan schools, San Diego State and Minnesota – all at home. Yes, they beat Notre Dame, too, which may or may not be a quality win by the time the season closes. They finally got on the road last weekend, and had all they could handle with a Northwestern team that doesn’t field the kind of athletes Michigan does. No, for my money, the jury is still very much out on Michigan. I think Michigan State at home offers the Wolverines the kind of tough, on-the-road test that they have yet to face, and it's likely we won’t see 400 yards of total offense and five scores from Robinson. Maybe no one will heed my advice, but here’s the wildcard pick just the same.
Brock Osweiler, Arizona State
The Sun Devils will visit Oregon for as big a game as Arizona State has played in a long while. Oregon, on the other hand, has played in a lot of these types of games lately, which to my mind gives the Ducks a big advantage at home. I think the hype, expectations, pressure and Oregon’s lightning-fast defense makes the afternoon a living hell for the 6-8 Osweiler, putting an unfortunate bump in the road that leads to a big bowl game for Arizona State. As I sit here, Arizona State looks like a quality team, but still a notch, or possibly two, below Oregon and Stanford. They, and Osweiler, will find out why against the Ducks.
Ryan Lindley, San Diego State
Lindley was horrible last week at home against TCU, and he has seen his passing percentage fall below the 50 percent mark – unthinkable for this offense. I’m done putting the blame on the revamped and young receiving corps – something’s seriously wrong with Lindley or the passing offense. A fantasy stud a year ago, Lindley is falling, falling, falling off the fantasy radar at an impressively-fast rate. A visit to Air Force, which allows about 204 yards a game through the air, doesn’t bode well for a guy whose confidence and productivity are hanging by a thread.
Chandler Harnish, Northern Illinois
This is a risky pick – Harnish has 19 total touchdowns in six games and he’s at home, but I’ve got a feeling that Western Michigan has enough in the tank, even on the road, to make him far less comfortable than he might otherwise be. WMU allows but 200 yards a game through the air, so it will be interesting to see if they can turn Harnish and the NIU offense into a one-dimensional entity. I think they do and Harnish struggles in his own stadium.
J.J. McDermott, SMU
Oh, I love the run-and-shoot offense, but this is too good a match-up to simply ignore. What we’ve got here is a quarterback flourishing in a pass-first offense about to face off with the nation’s top pass defense in visiting Central Florida. That’s right, UCF is the top dog, giving up an average of 100 yards a game through the air – and no touchdowns. McDermott has been very good for SMU, but he hasn’t been spectacular in that traditional run-and-shoot quarterback way. I think SMU goes run-heavy and tries to limit the damage UCF’s pass defense can do, preferring to hit them with more play-action. It’s one of those match-ups that you can’t ignore, and I think it’s a match-up that favors fantasy owners who are wary of McDermott this week.