Mock Draft 1.0: 3rd Round

From CFFL.com

Here is the third round of Mock Draft 1.0  The roster requirements for each of the ten teams and the point total for the mock league are enclosed below.  

-          One quarterback

-          Two running backs

-          Two wide receivers

-          One tight end

-          One kicker

-          One defense

Scoring system

-           1pt every 25 passing yards

-           6pts every passing TD

-            - 4pts every INT

-           1pt every 20 completions

-           1pt every 10 rushing yards

-           1pt every 10 receiving yards

-           1pt every 20 rushes

-           6pts every rushing or receiving TD

-           1 pt every reception, 1pt-XP, 3pts-FG)

Third Round

Cameron Marshall was an unproven commodity heading into the 2011 season.  He ended up with 276 fantasy points, double digits in each game, and surpassing 30 fantasy points in three games.  He faced two ranked teams and went for 36 points and 20 respectively.  With  Brock Osweiler leaving early for the NFL, expect Marshall to be the main cog for the real or hyped “high octane” offense brought to you by former text messaging head coach Todd Graham.  No matter the jokes about the new head coach, he did run  Ray Graham (no relation) of Pittsburgh heavily.  Marshall averaged less than 18 carries a game and still found the end zone 18 times in 2011 on the ground.  

We get it.  This is a risky pick.  Let’s get the bad out of the way: McCombs only scored touchdowns in three games last season and had 7 rushing touchdowns total.  Four of them came in the opener against Fordham on his way to a 43 point outburst, or almost 19 percent of his total output in one game.  The Connecticut offense is not good.  However, there is plenty of good for McCombs.  First, he was a freshman in 2011.  So he should improve.  Second, including the opener, he did have 6-100 rushing yard games and 95 in another.  He got almost 23 rushes a game as a freshman.  He will get better at finding the end zone.  If he receives the same carries and totals the same yards and doubles his touchdown production, he is looking at a 300-point fantasy season. 

Bailey was the big play receiver on the West Virginia offense in 2011.  While  Tavon Austin is a strong candidate, who had over 100 receptions in 2011, we feel that Bailey will see an even bigger increase in touchdown production.  After a so-so start the first two games, Bailey had 7-100 yard receiving games in the last ten.  Two of the other three in that span were for 80 yards.  He had receiving touchdowns in eight of his final ten regular season games.  He even went for 8-115-1 against the vaunted LSU defense.  With  Geno Smith returning and a year in the Dana Holgorsen  offense, look for Bailey to get to 100-1500-10, the benchmark for receiver stardom in college football. 

We want to embrace Denard Robinson, but even with a successful 2011, we still have an uneasy feeling placing Robinson in the “elite” category.  Since we only get one starter in this mock draft, you have to pardon us for feeling a little queasy selecting a QB who was split out wide during the  Michigan State game, providing evidence that Brady Hoke feels that he is not the best passer on the team.  If Coach Hoke calls us and makes a promise that Robinson will be under center (or in shotgun) every play, then we will move Robinson higher on the list.  He is as good a runner as any running back in the country.  Another caveat, Michigan opens with Alabama, then plays run heavy  Air Force, then two weeks at Notre Dame and then has a bye.  That is not the best opening schedule for your “go-to” quarterback.

This was a tough call.  There are many quarterbacks on the same plain, but Carder appears to be in the best situation.  This would be a no-brainer if he did not lose his top two receiver threats.  Still, Carder appears seasoned enough to produce with whomever at wide receiver.  Western Michigan cannot run the ball either.  So they will throw it a lot.  Plus, they play in the MAC, where games in the 30s and 40s are the norm.  Another plus for Carder: the schedule.  Western Michigan drops Michigan this year and plays at Illinois, Eastern Illinois, at Minnesota and Connecticut.  Carder played Illinois and Connecticut in 2011 and put up a total of 73 fantasy points (36.5PPG). 

The rising senior was a steady performer in 2011 as the sidekick to wonder boy  Andrew Luck. Taylor had 8 regular season games of 95 yards rushing and rushed for 10 touchdowns.  With Stanford looking to break in a new quarterback, Taylor should be the focus of the offense in 2012.  While he may not rush per average as he did in 2011, (5.5YPC), he should receive more carries.  He did not rush more than 23 times in a regular season contest.  That number should be north of 25 for most games, and he will get many looks around the goal line, so his ten rushing touchdowns in ’11 could be 15-17 in 2012.   

Michael’s 2011 was cut short due to injury.  However, even though he is returning from a serious knee injury, Michael should return to prominence without backfield mate, Cyrus Gray, who was a senior in 2011.  In the six games before his injury, Michael ran for over 100 yards in four of those contests and 200 once.  He was having an all-conference season before missing essentially the last four games of the regular season.   His value decreases slightly, as do all Texas A&M and Missouri players with the move to the SEC.  With new coachKevin Sumlin hoping to bring a highly productive offense to College Station, look for Michael to be one of the essential components.   

Lacy is the selection here because he is the starting runnin gback at Alabama.  That is no dig on him.  He averaged 7 yards a carry as the backup to  Trent Richardson in 2011.  He also scored seven touchdowns on the ground.  There is no reason why that number should not double in 2012.  He will not put up Trent Richardson numbers, but he should be counted on for 1300 yards and 14-15 touchdowns in an offense that runs the ball and plays good defense. 

There are two ways to look at this pick: Charles Sims will have a terrible year because Houston lost over 95 percent of their offesnive production.  In fact, they are in the bottom 5 nationally in most offesnive fantasy categories returning in 2012.  But that is why Sims is probably a good pick.  It is inevitable that Houston will take a step back offensively in 2012, but someone has to get the ball.  So why not Sims? He is a perfect fit for what Houston will need. He caught 46 balls for 545 yards and 4 touchdowns in '11.  He also added 782 yards rushing and nine touchdowns on the ground.  He did this while sharing time with two other backs (showing how ridiculous the Houston offense was in 2011).  The last thing he has going for him:CUSA defense-or lack thereof.  Houston travels to UCLA as the only potential uneasy start/sit on the schedule.

If Josey was still running in the BigXII, we probably would have moved him up the boards.  But he is running against SEC defenses in 2012.  That is a big step up in competition, especially coming off an injury.  The rising junior did average an incredible 8 yards per carry.  He had 5-100 yard rushing games and a 200 yard performance before his injury.  Missouri has playmakers back on offense, but they have a tough 2012 road schedule: including games at South Carolina, Central Florida, Florida, Tennessee, and Texas A&M.  They also host Georgia and Arizona State.  They still have to round out their schedule with two more non-conference games.  That could help gauge where Josey will go.