Big Twelve North: Spring Updates

Brian McDonald
Senior Editor
May 05, 2008
We continue with our quick post-spring conference reviews with a stop in the Big Twelve North, a conference that has become a passing mecca in the college fantasy football world. A conference that was once the place to look for ball carriers has become one where quarterbacks and receivers are plentiful. As with each and every conference there are a good deal of question marks in this conference, however with returning stars in Columbia and Lawrence, the Big Twelve North will be a destination of choice for BCS drafters. (Original article written by Brian McDonald on 1/27/08. Updates by Jim Belanger) Colorado Will be missed next year: Hugh Charles ended his senior season in style, running for 169 yards and three scores as the Buffaloes ran all over Nebraska and bid adieu to Bill Callahan. Charles was a steadying force as Colorado began to make its way back in 2007. Still Charles’ career was often a case of “what might have been” as he seemed unwilling to really get dirty at times. The reason he’ll be missed next year isn’t really due to the loss of talent; rather it’s the belief that Colorado will not have a clear-cut number one back for owners to utilize. Fantasy Star of 2008: If we want to talk about players expected to make a huge leap then Cody Hawkins must be near the top of the list. While it’s fun to talk nepotism and being “Daddy’s boy” it’s also fun to consider the possibilities once Hawkins cuts down on those on-field youthful indiscretions and fully grasps the system. Hawkins is far from imposing. He stands about 5’10” and is about 185 lbs. He doesn’t have the strongest arm, and he’s not very mobile. However like, I don’t know, a Ty Detmer, he’s a smart kid playing in a system that will allow him to shine. By no means am I predicting a Heisman-type campaign in Cody’s future, but I am predicting a couple of huge seasons, the first of which may be in 2008. Hawkins surpassed 3000 yards along with 25 scores during his 2007 on-the-job redshirt freshman campaign. Certainly the 17 picks were a part of the anticipated growing pains, and we expect those to be cut considerably. Another off-season of hard work along with the quest for father’s approval may see Cody Hawkins as a top-ten fantasy quarterback when the 2008 season is complete. Fantasy sleeper of 2008: Here’s where it gets interesting. Last February Colorado signed the top JUCO back in P.T Gates. Gates will not be enrolled for spring classes, and it’s appearing that Gates may have to work his tail off this summer to have any chance of seeing the field this fall. So it’s looking more and more unlikely that Gates will ever take a handoff in Boulder. If he does, then we could have a superstar. However combining his grade/transcript issues with the fact that he is a JUCO makes us a bit pessimistic. In fact, I’ll eat this article if Gates takes a snap. The Buffaloes are also in on Darrell Scott, whom many have as the number one back in the country, however it’ll be hard to pry him from Texas, among others. Ray Polk, another incoming freshman, may make some noise as well. Likely though, sophomores Demetrius Sumler and Brian Lockridge will share the running back gig. One becomes the clear back and he becomes a clear national sleeper. If pressed, we’ll pick Sumler. Looking for this year’s potential CFFinsider.com top-ten sleeper in 2008? Look no further than redshirt wide receiver Markques Simas, a top-flight recruit out of Cali in 2007. He could explode onto the national scene. 2008 Fantasy Outlook: Rising. Cody Hawkins is going to have a big year and he’ll bring a couple of wide receivers along with him. We love Simas, and even former walk-on Scotty McKnight could make a huge leap. Still, Coach Hawkins loves to deem every job open for competition, so the Buff’s fantasy options (beyond young Cody) may not become clear until spring practice. **Post-Spring Analysis** Coach Dan Hawkins will mix in some no huddle looks this year. A shot of energy is needed for a Colorado squad that gave up more points than they scored in 2007. Although it isn’t official, Cody Hawkins gave us no reason to believe that he won’t remain the starting signal caller come August. Markques Simas had a decent spring as a redshirt freshman wide receiver and could help the returning Scott McKnight on the outside. Last year’s starting tight end Riar Greer was suspended for spring practice (he fought the law) leaving the door open for Junior Patrick Devenny to lead the Buffalo’s in receptions in the spring game. The soon to be BMOC will no doubt be number one recruit Darrell Scott. The freshman running back probably warrants a mid-round pick in BCS leagues based on his talent and the glaring need in the Buffalo backfield. Iowa State Will be missed in 2008: Todd Blythe caught 176 balls for 3096 yards and 31 scores in his prolific career, and following a senior season with 52-779-5, Blythe hopes to begin his professional career. Brett Meyer also moves on from Ames, and while each certainly will be missed, there is a sense that a new start with young talent is exactly what this program needs. Blythe and Meyer leave behind a team that is getting better, and while the Cyclones have a long ways to go, they have a coach who is the right man for the job, and Mr. Chizik has some very intriguing young talent that may become fantasy stars. Fantasy star in 2008: Alexander Robinson provided an indication of what he can be as he put up some decent numbers once given an opportunity. He provides a nice run-catch threat for the Cyclones, and while next year’s youth movement likely makes Robinson a much better fantasy option in 2009, he has, in limited duty, shown the ability to break free when matchups are right. Fantasy sleeper of 2008: If you find yourself playing quarterback Austen Arnaud with any regularity next season you’re likely going to be in the midst of a horrible season. If you find yourself playing Austen Arnaud in 2010, then you may be onto something. Arnaud, in a change of pace role subbing for Bret Meyer, displayed an ability to make some plays. 2008 Fantasy Outlook: I’ve really shortchanged Iowa State in this already brief look ahead to 2008 because I’m lazy yet also hope that no one seriously considers drafting any Cyclones in 2008. However my cynicism should in no way be seen as a lack of faith in Gene Chizik. Chizik will make major strides in this football program. The man is a winner who can coach football. Dan McCarney is a fine coach who took Iowa State as far as he could, and now Chizik is going to take a couple steps backwards in order to make some huge leaps. Recruiting difficulties will likely keep Iowa State from ever becoming a perennial Big Twelve power, but a worker like Chizik will build a consistently solid team with the potential for the occasional big season. 2008 will likely see more struggles than big wins. Hopefully in an era where it’s win now because we need to pay for upgrades, Gene Chizik will get a chance to put his stamp on this program. By the time players such as Robinson and Arnaud are seniors, he’ll have things rolling. For now, avoid Iowa State like the plague. **Post-Spring Analysis** To say that the Iowa State offense was inept in 2007 would probably be an understatement. With this in mind, we’ve laid out a pretty dire fantasy outlook for the Cyclones in 2008. There may be some quality depth options at the running back spot though. If you’re looking for bright spots, Iowa State did have a solid three game stretch in October and November where they averaged close to 30 points per game. Sophomore to be Alexander Robinson posted some nice numbers down the stretch after getting the late-season call over J.J. Bass and Jason Scales at running back. Bass has been suspended indefinitely by coach Chizik, further clearing the way for Robinson. A real deep sleeper at running back may be Senior Ricky Thompson Jr. Should a running back by committee approach develop, we’ll be back to avoiding Cyclones this year. Kansas Will be missed in 2008: Brandon McAnderson, he of the 190-1125-16 senior campaign, will be a significant loss as the Jayhawks look to build upon their incredible 2007 season. McAnderson, part fullback and part halfback, was a stud during a stretch against Texas A&M, Nebraska and Oklahoma State, a three-week run that witnessed 434 yards and eight scores from the workhorse. McAnderson will take his place in Kansas Jayhawk history (how about a few notches below Adonis Jordan and Rex Walters) as a key cog in the football program’s reemergence. Also heading out of Lawrence will be wide receiver Marcus Henry and tight end Derek Fine, receiving threats who were on the end of 16 of Todd Reesing’s 33 scores. While each will leave a void, Mangino’s recent recruiting run will likely see ample talent ready to step up and seize an opportunity. Fantasy star in 2008: For all the props (as the kids like to say) that I garnered for a one-sentence mention of Mike Crabtree way back last March, I’ve received little ridicule for my blurb that minimized the apparent insignificance of Todd Reesing being named starter back last summer. Due to some type of Irish-Catholic guilt, I feel the need to cleanse my soul and admit that upon reading that Reesing would take the reigns, I did indeed write the following on 8.14.07: “Todd Reesing appears to have won the starting job at Kansas. This is significant if you play in a state of Kansas-only fantasy league. Otherwise, move along...not much to see here. Please consider this my formal atonement for those that passed on Reesing and his 36 score and instead cast their lot with the likes of Bret Meyer. Reesing was a fantasy stud in 2007, and he’ll likely surpass the 30 score barrier in 2008. He’ll be winging the pigskin to the likes of Dexton Fields and Dezmon Briscoe, and as mentioned earlier, the wide-open Big Twelve will lead to some monster performances. Reesing has gone from afterthought to top national fantasy quarterback, and amazingly enough, you can feel pretty confident if your 2008 fantasy hopes rest with the starting quarterback for the Kansas Jayhawks. Fantasy sleeper of 2008: I’m going to take the easy way out and go with Dexton Fields, and a large portion of this cop out stems from the recent coaching addition of former Rice wide receiver coach David Beaty to serve in the same capacity at Kansas. Beaty assisted in finding a way to get the ball to Jarret Dillard, and the simpleton in me thinks that if he could get the ball to Dillard when everyone in the stadium knew he was going to see the rock, then he’ll likely take a talent like Fields and find a way to increase his touches. 2008 Fantasy Outlook: There will be many who will deem Kansas a one-year wonder and dismiss their success as a fluke run. They will be wrong. The Jayhawks surpassed the 30-point mark in 10 of their 13 contests, and this includes six games where they went north of 50. This offensive output will likely continue next season. While the 2008 campaign does see a dicey trip to South Florida, there are also early-season games against Florida International, Louisiana Tech, Sam Houston State, Iowa State and Colorado, games in which teams will struggle to contain the likes of Reesing, Jake Sharp, Fields and Dezmon Briscoe. Owners will be able to ride their Jayhawks early, and give themselves time to ponder any roster moves until Oklahoma on October 18th. **Post-Spring Analysis** The impact fantasy players are looking fairly clear-cut for the Jayhawks in 2008. Todd Reesing will hold down the quarterback spot. Jake Sharp should get the majority of the snaps out of the backfield. I wouldn’t be surprised to see another big back emerge to help fill the void left by Brandon McAnderson’s departure. Look for the big back to come out of the mix of Angus Quigley, Jocques Crawford and Carmon Boyd-Anderson. Dexton Fields and Kerry Meier were the most consistent wide receivers in spring ball. Dezmon Briscoe has the potential to put up explosive numbers if he can get reduce his drops this year. I’ll take the big play guy (Briscoe) over the solid possession receivers (Fields and Meier) on my fantasy roster. Kansas will need a revamped offensive line to gel quickly to match last season’s offensive output and will have to find replacements for kicker Scott Webb and tight end Derek Fine. Sophomore Bradley Dedeaux is the early leader to replace Fine. Kansas State Will be missed in 2008: Forget about the likes of Manningham, Jackson, and Kelly. Jordy Nelson will be the most difficult wide receiver to replace in 2008, and it’s not even close. We loved Nelson heading into the 2006 campaign, and the injury bug short-circuited a breakout junior campaign. However Jordy took advantage of quarterback Josh Freeman’s maturation and became the third best fantasy wide receiver in 2007. The K-State offense went through Nelson, and Jordy’s owners were rewarded with an explosive (see 12-176-3 against Oklahoma State) and consistent (see touchdowns in all but one game) wide receiver whose season was bettered by only Mr. Crabtree and fellow fantasy freak Chad Hall. It’s not often that a former walk-on leaves such a gaping hole on a team’s roster, however Kansas State will find no one able to match Nelson’s contributions. Fantasy Star of 2008: My own fantasy situation became so dire that by season’s end I was relying on Josh Freeman, and I realize by admitting this that there are likely many fewer readers of this article than there were ten seconds ago. Injuries and poor, alcohol-induced, draft day decisions led to desperation, and in a league of fierce, cut-throat competition, Freeman was the only viable option in the clearance rack of free agent options. Freeman is the quarterback that drives everyone nuts. He wings one on a rope 40 yards between three defenders, and then hits those defenders in stride with three passes in the next three quarters. I followed up the toasting to Freeman’s five score performance against Baylor with a cursing when he accounted for one score against Iowa State. Freeman will get better in 2008. He’ll have some big games, and he’ll be the face of the Kansas State offense. However just because he’s K-State’s fantasy star doesn’t mean you should consider him anything more than a late draft pick/waiver move born out of desperation. Freeman is erratic and prone to packing on the pounds. Anytime one could apply a statement to both a possible fantasy quarterback and the late Anna Nicole Smith, he’s one to avoid. Fantasy Sleeper of 2008: Leon Patton appears to be the back who will step in for 1100 yard rusher James Johnson, and this will make Patton a sleeper RB option, even if only in Big Twelve leagues. K-State opens with Louisiana-Lafayette and closes with Iowa State, and when matchups are right like this, then Patton could make some noise. He’ll likely only be a serious consideration in games such as these. 2008 Fantasy Outlook: If I appear down on the Wildcats, then sometimes things are exactly as they appear. This team was beaten by Iowa State and gave up against Nebraska. Freeman will be maddening, and the loss of Nelson will be too much to overcome. Early adversity may signal the end of the Coach Ron Prince era, and these struggles will be due, in large part, to an offensive unit that simply can’t keep up in the wide-open Big Twelve. Where have you gone Michael Bishop? **Post-Spring Analysis** Wide receiver Deon Murphy is probably the most exciting fantasy prospect on the Wildcat roster after a solid 605 yard, five touchdown freshman campaign. He was held out of spring practice to hit the books, but we expect to see him suited up when fall rolls around. New Green Bay Packer Jordy Nelson’s 122 catches and 11 touchdowns will need to be replaced and Murphy has the best tools. Tight end Jeron Mastrud had a great spring according to head coach Ron Prince, so we’re looking for an improvement on his 30 catch 2007. Leon Patton is the likely candidate at running back, though we’ll keep an eye on the depth chart here. Josh Freeman passed for exactly 18 touchdowns as predicted in our 2007 preview (we get a few things right). He has the physical tools to play in the NFL, but he was hampered somewhat by spotty protection last season. He showed us what a gamer he was in the early season loss to Auburn last year. The offensive line is (reportedly) improved, but a 3-0 spring game may lead to some trepidation about the fantasy potential of this team. Missouri Will be missed next year: Starting running back Tony Temple has applied for a medical redshirt, and if granted he’ll be able to play another year due to an injury-plagued 2004 campaign. If Temple’s application is indeed granted it’ll be a boost for a Missouri team looking to build upon an outstanding 2007 season. Temple gained over 1000 yards from scrimmage and scored 13 touchdowns for the offensive juggernaut. Regardless of whether he returns or not, Temple has come a long way from when it appeared he and fellow back Marcus Woods would share carries. Martin Rucker departs as the most prolific tight end in Missouri history. The senior tight end completed his stay in Columbia with a senior season for the ages as he accounted for 84 receptions, 834 yards and eight scores. While his tight end partner in crime Chase Coffman returns, Chase Daniel will certainly miss the multi-dimensional threat that Rucker provided the Mizzou offense. Fantasy Star of 2008: Where to start? Clearly Chase Daniel is a top national quarterback and he leads a bumper crop of Big Twelve fantasy quarterbacks. And to think many thought Brad Smith’s graduation would signal the end of Gary Pinkel’s stay at Missouri. Daniel, coming off a 37-touchdown season, may be second to only Tim Tebow on most BCS quarterback draft boards. In addition to the possibility of Temple’s return, Daniel will also have freshman sensation and All-American Jeremy Maclin (16 touchdowns) and the aforementioned Chase Coffman at his disposal. While it’ll be difficult for Maclin to match his rookie numbers, Coffman will be a top-five national tight end. Fantasy sleeper of 2008: Danario Alexander was one of our pre-season sleepers that didn’t pan out last season, and this can be attributed to an early-season injury that cost him any real chance to make a large impact (and helped turn Maclin into a star). We still love Alexander’s potential, and think his presence could signal the onset of an even more wide-open Mizzou attack. Alexander’s 8-117-1 performance against Kansas is more indicative of what he’ll become. With Rucker’s departure Alexander may become a serious red zone option for Mr. Daniel. The question is, will he be able to return from knee surgery? Sophomore running back Derrick Washington is the man to nab if Temple’s appeal for an extra year is denied. Derrick Washington may be a man to nab even if Temple returns. Draft incoming five-star quarterback recruit Blaine Gabbert with a late-round selection. He’ll understudy in 2008, and then he’ll take the controls in 2009. 2008 Team Fantasy Outlook: The Missouri Tigers will be stacked in 2008. Chase Daniel and Chase Coffman are among the nation’s best at their respective positions and Jeremy Maclin is better than DeSean Jackson right now. Danario Alexander has potential, but also injury concerns. Even kicker Jeff Wolfert is a top prospect. Expect Mizzou players to go off the board with great frequency. **Post-Spring Analysis** Youngsters Derrick Washington and De’Vion Moore, and their quest to supplant senior Jimmy Jackson at the running back spot will likely be the biggest fantasy question mark for the Tigers. Washington tops the depth chart coming out of a solid spring game performance. If he can capture the bulk of the regular season snaps, we may have a fantasy star in the making. The remaining offensive positions are stacked with Chase Daniel, Jeremy Maclin, Danario Alexander, Chase Coffman and Jeff Wolfert all high fantasy draft picks. Alexander, who is coming off a knee injury, particpated in spring drills but was limited. Tight ends Michael Egnew and Andrew Jones deserve some consideration as Missouri has proven to be an excellent system for this fantasy position. Remember these guys for 2009. Junior wide receiver Jared Perry was mentioned by coach Gary Pinkel as having an excellent spring. Nebraska Will be missed next year: Well, it won’t be Bill Callahan. The Callahan era ended in a flurry of defensive meltdowns that had Husker fans wondering just who invited this guy to the party. Mr. Osborne has come in to clean up the mess, and new coach Bo Pelini will have his hands full, and he won’t have the services of the team’s top receiver from 2007. Maurice Purify endured a difficult year, both on and off the field, yet he was still able to account for nine scores and 814 receiving yards. While Purify did push double digits, he did so in a maddening inconsistent fashion as six of his scores came in blowout losses to Kansas and Colorado. Purify’s numbers will be missed, however for a program that’s looking to put the past few years in the rearview mirror, the Husker offense will be able to move forward. Fantasy Star of 2008: One couldn’t blame Marlon Lucky if he decided to forego his senior season for a shot at NFL riches. However Lucky took note of the strong running back's coming out and decided to stick around for the change in culture that Bo Pelini will bring. Lucky will be the go-to guy, and in an offense that Pelini says will still have a west coast flava, Lucky should continue to serve as a great dual-threat fantasy option. It’s hard to believe that Marlon Lucky went for 206-1019-9 on the ground while catching 75 balls for an additional 705 yards and three scores. To put this into an appropriate context please consider that Lucky’s 1784 yards from scrimmage were about 300 more than Steve Slaton. Expect Lucky to push 2000 yards from scrimmage and maybe 15 scores. Take a look at 2007’s numbers, and we realize that Lucky may be a top-five BCS running back. Fantasy sleeper of 2008: Taking the easy way out once again, I’m going to list last year’s starting quarterback as next year’s fantasy sleeper. Joe Ganz took over following ASU refugee Sam Keller’s injury, and in the final three games of the season Ganz accounted for 5, 7 and 6 scores. While we don’t expect this output to become Ganz’ norm in 2008 (thanks in large part to the belief that the Husker defensive cannot possibly be that bad next year) he does provide an intriguing fantasy option. Because I feel guilty about choosing Ganz as my sleeper, I’ll also throw in Omaha native and sophomore wide receiver Niles Paul. Paul only saw limited action in 2007, and he’s got to become stronger to play a huge role, however he’s one that could emerge as a threat with the 2008 version of Nebraska football. 2008 Team Fantasy Outlook: Nebraska brings back former defensive coordinator Bo Pelini, and his national title experience will certainly prove beneficial as he attempts to restore the luster to the Nebraksa name while out on the recruiting trail. Pelini has his work cut for him, however his rough around the edges style will be a refreshing change from the country club style of Bill Callahan. While the defense has a long way to go, the Ganz and Lucky offense will put up some nice numbers. Those who spend an early-round selection on Lucky will also want to invest a later selection in Quentin Castille, who flashed a nice skill set in his 75 carries as a freshman. Don’t expect Ganz to continue his end-of-season run, but it’s certainly not out of the question that Ganz could push for 30 scores should he stay healthy. **Post-Spring Analysis** New head coach Bo Pelini has been raving about running back Roy Helu all spring. We’d put him next to Quentin Castille as the top backup to Marlon Lucky. Redshirt freshman Marcus Mendoza will be in the playing mix as well. The logjam in the backfield may cause us to temper our enthusiasm for Marlon Lucky, though only a little. Shawn Watson is staying on as offensive coordinator under Pelini, making Ganz a solid quarterback selection who should top 25 touchdowns this season. Todd Peterson and Nate Swift will be the focal point of the receiving corps as Nebraska will look to find some depth from the likes of Menelik Holt and Niles Paul.

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