From a high-scoring, defense-optional fantasy perspective the Big 12 North is a wonderful draft day destination, offering free-wheeling quarterbacks, sandy beaches and exciting playmakers. Recently owners have built squads on the likes of Mizzou, Kansas and a smattering of Cornhuskers, and they’ve done just fine and dandy. And you can bet your bottom dollar that 2009 will see it remain among the top national fantasy divisions. However because the north side shares a conference with a division that boasts the likes of Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and hell, even Baylor, the Big 12 North is often viewed by owners as the Sam McKinney, the annoying red-headed stepchild who didn’t add much to the Drummond Family on Diff’rent Strokes.
And this season will not do much to close the talent gap between the divisions. Missouri’s mass exodus of skill talent will further diminish the north’s reputation when compared to its big brother. And it’s not expected to receive much help from the two States: Kansas and Iowa. Because we think Bo Pelini and Dan Hawkins would be fitted for straitjackets in about 40 states we’ll at least give the Buffs and Huskers the benefit of the doubt. However Kansas is different. The skill position returning and the system will make Lawrence a must-stop for fantasy drafters, though it may be the only lengthy stop on the northern swing.
2008 All-Big 12 North Fantasy Team *returning for 2009
QB: Chase Daniel
RB: Derrick Washington*
RB: Jake Sharp*
WR: Dezmon Briscoe*
WR: Brandon Banks*
TE: Chase Coffman
K: Jeff Wolfert
D: Missouri
Missouri 10-4
Fantasy starters lost: QB Chase Daniel, WR Jeremy Maclin, WR Tommy Saunders, TE Chase Coffman and K Jeff Wolfert
Returning: RB Derrick Washington, WR Jared Perry and WR Danario Alexander
Looking to Emerge: QB Blaine Gabbert, RB Kendial Lawrence, WR Jared Perry, WR Rolandis Woodland, TE Andrew Jones and TE Michael Egnew
O-line outlook: Three return, and there’s talent chomping at bit.
D Returners: 7
Look Back
Nearly 500 yards from scrimmage per game and a disturbingly balanced offense led the Tigers to another fine season and a thrilling Alamo Bowl win over Northwestern. No there was no Heisman Trophy. And there wasn’t a BCS bowl appearance. But there was an offense that really only struggled against the two squads from Oklahoma and any disappointment over the season’s record definitely can’t be pinned on the guys with the ball.
Heading into 2008 we knew exactly what we had in Columbia, or to paraphrase Dennis Green, they were who we thought they were. The same can’t be said as we look towards 2009.
Will be missed next season
An era has come to an end in Columbia, and while there is plenty of talent left in the cupboard there is an understanding that we’ll see a very significant offensive drop in 2009. With the departures of Chase Daniel, Jeremy Maclin, Chase Coffman and Jeff Wolfert the Tigers will look to replace 867 fantasy points lost. Certainly there is skill (Blaine Gabbert, Derrick Washington, Jared Perry, Andrew Jones, etc.) that is returning or ready to step in, but one shouldn’t underestimate what Mizzou will need to replace.
Chase Daniel is a legend, Jeremy Maclin could be the most explosive player in the school’s history, Chase Coffman caught 90 freaking passes from the tight end spot, and Jeff Wolfert led all kickers with 133 points. They fought Big Twelve wars and more than held their own. So we shouldn’t expect the Tigers to score 43 points per game as they did in 2008. In fact there’s a very good chance we could be looking at a .500 club with only a couple fantasy worthy performers.
Likely Offensive Star in 2009
Mizzou has an inexperienced quarterback. They also have wide receivers with a lot to prove and some young tights. This equals a team that will lean on the running game more than usual, and fortunately in Derrick Washington the Tigers have a pretty good one. However there is concern that a large factor in his 1300+ yards from scrimmage and 19 touchdowns were the lanes created by secondary units forced to double Jeremy Maclin and linebackers that were always cheating towards Chase Coffman.
I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect Washington to come close to 19 scores again. He’ll have a very good season (12-14 touchdowns?) but let someone else reach for the Mizzou back as he could just as easily see a significant drop off. This offense will not be the same scoring machine we’ve come to know and love.
However this uncertainty shouldn’t stop any owner from nabbing whomever emerges (Gabbert, Jimmy Costello, Blaine Dalton or Ashton Glasser) at quarterback. The last two quarterbacks at Mizzou have been Brad Smith and Chase Daniel. And each treated their owners very nicely.
Potential Breakout Star in 2009
Danario Alexander can’t seem to catch a break with injuries. Jared Perry hasn’t shown game breaking ability. And we’ve already discussed the personnel losses. So who then may emerge as Missouri’s next playmaker? Remember the name Rolandis Woodland.
Woodland, a top high schooler who spent a year at prep school, appears ready to show what he can do. Woodland, like Alexander, is a tall drink of water. But he also possesses a great deal more speed. He may become the benefactor a young quarterback throwing up a prayer in hopes that his tall, speedy receiver can bring it down.
Freshman Flyer
News of Derrick Washington’s struggles with his knee has us a wee bit concerned. With backup RB Drew Temple’s decision to leave the program there is a lack of running back depth. And this will provide incoming freshman Kendial Lawrence a chance to see the field early. The Texas native brings a very nice skill set to Columbia, and he’s definitely one to draft and stash.
Nebraska 9-4
Fantasy starters lost: QB Joe Ganz, RB Marlon Lucky, WR Nate Swift and WR Todd Peterson
Returning: RB Roy Helu Jr. and TE Mike McNeill
Looking to Emerge: QB Patrick Witt, QB Zac Lee, RB Quentin Castille, WR Menelik Holt and WR Niles Paul
O-line outlook: Matt Slauson and Lydon Murtha move on.
D Returners: 7
Look Back
The Cornhuskers utilized a very balanced offensive attack and a defense that did just enough to enjoy a nice season in Bo Pelini’s opening act as head coach. Their losses were to teams (Virginia Tech, Missouri, Texas Tech and Oklahoma) that simply had better talent, and as Pelini has shown an ability to attract top talent this won’t be the case for long.
The new head coach did a nice job of not forcing an offensive system on players ill-suited for a change. The team played hard throughout, and while it’s clear Nebraska is not near the likes of Texas and Oklahoma in talent, there’s reason to believe that things are going to get better.
Will be missed next season
Marlon Lucky’s senior campaign didn’t go as planned, but the versatile back battled injuries and ended the season with over 800 yards from scrimmage and ten scores. Also leaving Lincoln will be solid quarterback Joe Ganz (over 3800 yards of total offense and 31 touchdowns) and Nate Swift (63-941-11). These three gentlemen all did a nice job of leading the Huskers during year one of the Bo Pelini regime.
The offense averaged an impressive 36 points per game, and much of this can likely be attributed to Pelini’s willingness to not shake up the offensive scheme too much. It’ll be interesting to see if he slowly moves away from the antiquated west-coast scheme to something that will attract more play-making quarterbacks.
Likely Offensive Star in 2009
Roy Helu’s 6.4 yards per carry jump off the stat sheet. He saw the exact same number carries as Marlon Lucky, but Helu gained nearly 300 more yards while scoring the same number of rushing touchdowns. He shows a nice burst, and he’ll have some big games in 2009.
However like many other coaches it appears that Bo Pelini is a fan of spreading the carries around, much to the annoyance of fantasy owners everywhere. Quentin Castille showed flashes last season, and he was especially impressive in the Gator Bowl win over Clemson. Look for both Helu and Castille to see carries and run well, but we’re likely only looking at a Nebraska running back star if the unfortunate happens and one tailback experiences injury difficulties.
Potential Breakout Star in 2009
Menelik Holt and Niles Paul will likely be reliable albeit non-game breaking receivers, so each should be avoided by fantasy owners. However the tight end position is, once again, a decent place for owners to look.
Mike McNeil has a knack for scoring touchdowns, and he’s one of the more streaky players at his position. McNeil scored a touchdown in each of the first three games. Then he took a five-week hiatus before scoring in three straight. Included in the latter run was a 3-70-1 performance against Colorado. He also displayed some very nice athleticism with a one-handed catch in the Gator Bowl.
Following a sophomore season that saw McNeil nab 32 catches for 442 yards and six scores it’s safe to say he’ll be a very nice goal line option for whoever emerges as the starting quarterback.
Freshman Flyer
Recruit Cody Green is already on campus and itching for his chance. Considering the battle to replace Joe Ganz is wide open the freshman from Dayton, Texas has a legitimate chance to outperform Patrick Witt and Zac Lee and be under center when the Huskers open against Florida Atlantic.
Kansas 8-5
Fantasy starters lost: WR Dexton Fields
Returning: QB Todd Reesing, RB Jake Sharp, WR Dezmon Briscoe and WR Kerry Meier
Looking to Emerge: RB Jocques Crawford, WR Johnathan Wilson, WR Chris Omigie and K Jacob Branstetter
O-line outlook: Three move on. This is a little area of concern.
D Returners: 6
Look Back
It speaks volumes about what Mark Mangino has been able to accomplish that KU’s 8-5 2008 season can be seen as a bummer in Lawrence. A long-term doormat has become a program where it’s reasonable to expect Big 12 North championships, and 2009 may provide just that. This program has answered any lingering doubts, and as long as Mangino is patrolling the sidelines the Jayhawks will remain a national power and fantasy goldmine.
Kansas, like nearly every other Big 12 team, fielded its share of fantasy studs in 2008. Todd Reesing accounted for 36 touchdowns and over 4000 yards of offense. Jake Sharp stepped in and provided over 1000 yards from scrimmage and 13 scores. Dezmon Briscoe emerged as one of the nation’s top young wide receivers while Kerry Meier continued his incredible transformation from one-time quarterback of the future to a wide receiver that caught 97 passes and scored nine times. And young WR Johnathan Wilson caught 43 balls for 573 yards and three scores.
And every single player listed above returns in 2009, meaning Kansas will once again enter the Big 12 shootouts armed with a bazooka of its own.
Will be missed next season
Injury woes cut short what should have been a very production senior campaign for Dexton Fields. Coming off a 2007 that saw him go for 63-834-6 it was expected that Fields would reap more rewards from lining up alongside Dezmon Briscoe. A bad foot/ankle that limited Fields to a minimal role in the offense (19-217-3) allowed for Kerry Meier to truly emerge.
Fields is certainly a loss heading into 2009, but the receiving corps rests in very capable hands.
Likely Offensive Star in 2009
I really like Todd Reesing. He’s an undersized gunslinger who gets by on intelligence and a great deal of moxie. He also puts up huge fantasy numbers on a very consistent basis. Every college coach would kill to have a Todd Reesing, and not one would give a damn that his measurables are likely to have NFL scouts uttering a collective “meh”. He brings solid production with blow-up potential (four-score games against South Florida, Nebraska, Mizzou and Minnesota, all bowl teams). Still, our man love for Todd Reesing notwithstanding, it may be Dezmon Briscoe that emerges as the true Jayhawk fantasy superstar.
There were six national receivers that had better fantasy seasons than Dezmon Briscoe in 2008. All but Dez Bryant will be trying to make an impact on Sundays in 2009. Value wise there may not be a more overlooked player this draft day than Dezmon Briscoe. He’s coming off a monster (92-1407-15) sophomore season and he finished up with a 14-203-3 man-against-boys performance in the bowl game. His fellow skill position friends are all returning in 2009, and defenses can only play 11 guys at one time.
Potential Breakout Star in 2009
With such talent returning it’s hard to pinpoint a player that can emerge to have a fantasy impact in 2009. So we’ll go with the kicker. Jacob Branstetter only had 12 field goal attempts in 2008, and he made nine of them. He did nab 51 out of 52 extra points, and he’s the clear starter heading into this season.
Expect Branstetter to get a few more shots at three in 2009. He’s on a team that will not have any problems getting into field goal range, but they again may have no problem hitting for six.
When a team’s potential breakout star is a kicker it often means we think an offense will be really good, or really bad. In the case of Kansas it’s the former.
Freshman Flyer
A wide receiver who was somewhat overlooked by recruiting services, Chris Omigie is a 6’5” speedster with the chance to see the playing field early in his Kansas career. There is certainly veteran WR depth on the Jayhawks, so Omigie’s short-term ceiling is a bit low. However he could emerge as the gem of Mangino’s 2009 recruiting class.
Colorado 5-7
Fantasy starters lost:WR Patrick Williams and WR Cody Crawford
Returning: QB Cody Hawkins, RB Rodney Stewart, WR Scotty McKnight, WR Josh Smith
Looking to Emerge: RB Darrell Scott and WR Andre Simmons
O-line outlook: C Daniel Sanders leaves gaping hole. Rest of line is very young.
D Returners: 4
Look Back
In some conferences averaging 20 points will send the alumni on a nice little bowl trip. In the Big 12 20 points is a nice first quarter. Colorado’s team totals (20.1 points/game, 194 pass yards/game and 124 rush yards/game) will not get it done in the standings or more importantly to losers like us, on the fantasy scoreboard. Hopefully an offense that returns a great portion of its skill talent in 2009 will make some big strides, otherwise next year will look like last year.
The three quarterbacks that saw significant action in 2008 threw for 19 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. The leading receiver went for 519-5. Until the passing game at least provides some semblance of a threat, then we’re going to see any Buff back, be it Darrell Scott, Rodney Stewart, Demetrius Sumler or Eric Bieniemy, looking to run against a defense bringing more players than his offensive line can block.
Will be missed next season
Wide receivers Patrick Williams and Cody Crawford exhausted their eligibility in 2008, and while each caught over 30 balls and two touchdowns, Colorado should find replacing both a relatively easy task. There are plenty of young receivers gallivanting around Boulder. Whether they’re any good remains to be seen, but for an offense that couldn’t average more than 200 yards passing against a Big 12 slate we’ll take our chances on improvement in 2009.
Likely Offensive Star in 2009
Former walk-on Scotty McKnight has emerged as the top pass catcher in the program, and with the uncertainty surrounding both the quarterback and running back spots the rising junior is the favorite to emerge as the Buff’s most reliable fantasy producer.
McKnight will wow no one with his speed and he’s not very big. But in his first two seasons at Colorado he’s emerged as a pretty consistent wide receiver, following up his 2007 (47-555-4) with a nearly identical 2008 (46-519-5). Again, these are not the type of numbers that should cause a fantasy owner to go get a Scotty McKnight Fathead but improvement in the passing game may make McKnight a 50-800-8 wide receiver.
Potential Breakout Star in 2009
Darrell Scott goes from Freshman Flyer in 2008 to Potential Breakout Star in 2009. Hopefully he’ll be the Likely Offensive Star in 2010 and we’ll all be happy.
Scott’s struggles in 2008 have been well-documented, and as positive thinkers we’ll look to the future. Scott will be slimmer, healthier and hungrier heading into 2009. For the consensus top running back of 2008 this points to a marked improvement in production. He’s one of the most high-profile recruits to come to Colorado in some time, and a great spring/summer will mean a whole bunch of carries when the season kicks off.
Yes, oft-overlooked Rodney Stewart returns, as does Demetrius Sumler. But neither possesses the ability of Darrell Scott. He’s worth a mid-round investment.
Freshman Flyer
There remain concerns that incoming JUCO WR Andre Simmons may not qualify, and this would be a blow to the Buff’s plans in 2009. Simmons is ready to play Big 12 football, and he has no desire to go play intramurals. The Buffs need receiving help in the worst way, and an eligible Simmons may emerge as the conference’s top freshman.
Kansas State 5-7
Fantasy starters lost: QB Josh Freeman, K Brooks Rossman
Returning: RB Lamark Brown, RB Logan Dold, WR Brandon Banks, WR Deon Murphy, TE Jeron Mastrud, Coach Bill Snyder
Looking to Emerge: QB Carson Coffman
O-line outlook: Alesana and Spexarth move on. So does Jordan Bedore, a big loss.
D Returners: 9
Look Back
It makes little sense to spend a great deal of time looking back on 2008. It was a mediocre season that ended with the head coach fired and the quarterback declaring early. But because we’re positive spin doctors we’ll point to some pretty decent wide receivers leading the charge in 2009.
Now with Bill Snyder era once again upon us, there are more questions than answers heading into 2009. And it’s hard to make this situation appear like a great story about to be written.
Americans love a good comeback story. George Foreman warmed the heart, and you go Britney! However more often than naught comebacks do not end with a thriling story like Jack Nicklaus at Augusta. They often end like former Baltimore Oriole Jim Palmer, who at age 45 tried to comeback seven years after he first called his HOF career done. Palmer’s only performance during his return ended with a torn hamstring, and he likely wondered what the hell he was thinking.
Bill Snyder built Kansas State football, and he’s a living legend. However during the growth of Kansas State football and even during the 2003 Big 12 Championship season we didn’t have the nearly top to bottom dominant conference we now enjoy. And now he’s not the only coach to supplement/build his roster around JUCOs.
The Wildcat brain trust pulled the plug on Ron Prince and opted to bring back a man who will be 70 in October and four years removed from coaching. This doesn’t bode well for the program, or its skill position talent.
Will be missed next season
Josh Freeman may be a first round draft choice, and it’s hard for top teams to fill this type of hole, let alone a squad looking to rebound from 5-7. He became more consistent, and he was a solid quarterback in a conference that was loaded with fantasy superstars. And he even proved a decent fill in for owners searching for some help in BCS leagues.
Freeman’s 34 touchdowns weren’t a huge surprise; but the fact that 14 came on the ground did catch us off guard. He accounted for three scores in eight of his team’s 13 games, and included were two games with five touchdowns and three with four scores.
Freeman will be a project for an NFL team that values a rocket arm and prototypical size. And Kansas State has no one on the roster that can replace him.
Likely Offensive Star in 2009
It’s hard to deem anyone a likely star following a coaching change, especially one like this. We do know that (to paraphrase Rick Pitino) Michael Bishop is not walking through that door. Still, no matter who emerges as quarterback, be it Carson Coffman or former JUCO Daniel Thomas, he’ll be wise to utilize his two talented wide receivers.
Brandon Banks scored 11 touchdowns while gaining nearly 1100 yards from scrimmage in 2008. He’ll team with Deon Murphy (37-555-6) to provide the Wildcats with one of the nation’s better wide receiving duos.
Still the fantasy drafter would be wise to follow our spring and summer practice reports to see how the quarterback duo is shaping up. If Snyder goes with Daniel Thomas it will not bode well for these two receivers, as he’s a run-first quarterback.
Potential Breakout Star in 2009
In 2003, the last great season enjoyed by Kansas State, Darren Sproles touched the ball 331 times from the line of scrimmage. Now I know that Kansas State doesn’t currently have a back with the talent of Darren Sproles on its roster. And I know that the 2003 Kansas State defense was about a bazillion times better than last year’s version. But, and I’m grasping at straws here people, Sproles’ rushing total does show Bill Snyder’s willingness to pound the ball.
Therefore we’re going to deem Logan Dold our breakout star for 2009. Fellow back Lamark Brown has moved back to wide receiver, thus it would appear, leaving Dold as the favorite to emerge as the starting tailback. Dold, a sturdy 6’0” and about 200 lbs. appears able to withstand the pounding. He may become a viable starting option against the likes of UMASS and Iowa State.
Freshman Flyer
We’re operating under the assumption that Bryce Brown will not be making his way to Manhattan, Kansas. Therefore we like a couple of freshman backs to possibly see consistent playing time. Both Timothy Flanders and Tramaine Thompson could play a role in 2009. Flanders initially chose Tulsa, and then despite an offer to play DB at Oklahoma State, he decided he wanted to run for Billy Snyder. Thompson, originally a Oregon State verbal, is also taking the leap of faith. If we had to place money on one of these incoming backs having a greater impact then we’d cast our lot with Flanders.
Iowa State 2-10
Fantasy starters lost: WR R.J. Sumrall, RB Jason Scales and RB J.J. Bass
Returning: QB Austen Arnaud and RB Alexander Robinson,
Looking to Emerge: WR Marquis Hamilton and WR Darius Darks
O-line outlook: Tackle Doug Dedrick leaves a hole. Everyone else returns.
D Returners: 5
Look Back
If you had told an Iowa State football fan that a traditional power had come and taken his coach away this fan could’ve at least taken solace in the fact that his Cyclones must have had a great season in order for his coach to be in such demand. Alas, this was not the case in Ames. The Auburn Tigers came calling after Gene Chizik led the Cyclones to 3-9 and 2-10 seasons. There is no truth to the rumor that Rod Marinelli was next on Auburn’s dream list.
Even with all of their issues winning games the Cyclones did show signs of life, particularly on offense, where they averaged 25 points per game while putting up about 250 yards passing per outing. Of course much of this passing yardage was compliments of the need to play catch up on a weekly basis. Still this is a team that went toe-to-toe with Kansas during its 35-33 loss, so there may indeed be a little pulse.
Will be missed next season
Jason Scales moves on and with him go five rushing touchdowns. A bigger loss will be felt in the passing game where WR R.J. Sumrall moves on following a 57-750-7 senior season. Each, especially Sumrall, will be missed, but as is the case with most coaching changes it’s often for the best to see veterans soon depart.
New coach Paul Rhodes will look to install his own system, and we’ll likely see a youth movement at a few key spots. But even so there are a couple of holdovers for fantasy owners to at least consider.
Likely Offensive Star in 2009
Now that his stable mates have exhausted their eligibility Alexander Robinson will have the opportunity to shine. Robinson averaged a nice 4.6 yards per carry while running for 703 yards and six scores. Most impressive was a 23-101-2 performance against Colorado. The rising junior should have a sleeper hold on the starting running back job, thus making him a possible bench guy for when those inevitable injury woes and schedule difficulties rise up and bite you in the arse.
Potential Breakout Star in 2009
Austen Arnaud is an underrated quarterback with a very nice skill set. The team’s 2008 MVP is a solid passer that gained nearly 3200 yards from scrimmage. He’ll need some young receivers to step up and replace the production lost with Sumrall’s graduation, but Arnaud is worth a look as a 3rd or 4th quarterback in BCS leagues, and a solid number two in Big 12 leagues.
It’ll be interesting to see how Paul Rhodes utilizes this talent at QB.
Freshman Flyer
Darius Reynolds, a JUCO quarterback, could be a very interesting prospect at wide receiver. He’ll be one to watch in spring ball, and an immediate impact can be anticipated.
Final Big 12 North Thoughts
Upon further review it appears even more likely that the Kansas Jayhawks will emerge as the class of this division, both in the standings and in terms of impact fantasy performers. Every other program has a great number of questions that will only be answered when the games begin.
Fantasy owners should remember that though there are a great number of unknown commodities in this division, each team will play a Big 12 conference schedule. So this may become the conference to raid during the free agent signing period.