There’s not much that can be said about the Big 12 South that hasn’t already been discussed. It was the most impressive collection of college fantasy football talent in the country in 2008, and the great majority of it comes back in 2009. Every team but one returns its starting quarterback and each should receive roster consideration in any type of league. And the squads that don’t return their primary ball carrier from a season ago all bring in a stud freshman capable of making an immediate impact. The one team that sees truly significant personnel losses, Texas Tech, is the one program that has shown the greatest ability to withstand key skill position departures while maintaining an incomparable level of offensive production. There is more fantasy talent in this one division than in most conferences, and an early look at the 2009 campaign shows a striking resemblance to 2008.
2008 All-Big 12 South *returning for 2009
QB: Sam Bradford*
RB: Kendall Hunter*
RB: Chris Brown*
WR: Dez Bryant*
WR: Michael Crabtree
TE: Jermaine Gresham*
K: Jimmy Stevens*
D: Texas
Texas 12-1
Fantasy starters lost: RB Chris Ogbonnaya, WR Quan Cosby, K Ryan Bailey
Returning: QB Colt McCoy, RB Cody Johnson, RB Vondrell McGee, WR Jordan Shipley, TE Blaine Irby, K Hunter Lawrence
Looking to Emerge: WR Brandon Collins, WR Malcolm Williams, RB Foswhitt Whittaker, RB Chris Whaley
O-line outlook: Cedric Dockery departs.
D Returners: 6
Look Back
Nearly 44 points and 476 yards from scrimmage led the Longhorns to an impressive 12-1 season, one only marred by the brilliance of Michael Crabtree. In fact one really has to look to find fault with anything the Longhorns did offensively, and I’ve still yet to hear a solid reason (other than karma for Mack Brown's incessant BCS whining a few years back) why Texas didn’t deserve to be playing for the whole thing last January.
The Longhorns will look to display more balance in 2009 as many believe that it was an inability to run the ball consistently against Texas Tech that cost them their title shot. And while there is some truth to this sentiment let us also remember that Oklahoma only gained thirty more yards on the ground per game, and there are some mighty talented backs in Norman.
The 2008 Texas offense was outstanding, and there’s no reason to believe that 2009 won’t witness an even better version.
Will be missed next season
Quan Cosby leaves Austin as #2 in all-time receptions and #3 in receiving yards. Cosby is one who will struggle to make an impact at the next level but this should not diminish what he was able to accomplish while at Texas. Cosby’s 92-1123-10 season may have been a bit overshadowed by Jordan Shipley's numbers, but one only needed to see the Fiesta Bowl (14-171-2) to realize Cosby’s importance.
Chris Ogbonnaya will also be participating in the NFL combine, and while he did score seven times it’s likely that very few owners put any weekly faith in the Longhorn senior. While a solid contributor, Jamaal Charles he was not.
Likely Offensive Star in 2009
Consider Colt McCoy the football version of Christian Laettner, except not everyone hates the Longhorn QB. He’s been around forever, won a ton of games and his mom gets a ton of airtime. If McCoy can kick an opponent in the chest, convince his mom to wear a neck brace and win a National Championship then the metamorphosis will be complete.
What can you say about Colt McCoy? Replaced Vince Young and threw 29 touchdowns as a redshirt freshman. Had a down sophomore year but bounced back to post 45 scores in 2008. He’s the starting quarterback for the Longhorns. He’s likable. I hear his girlfriend is an attractive young lady. But most importantly, Tim Tebow thinks highly of him. So he’s got it made with the man upstairs. And his name is Colt McCoy, which means he’ll have a good pro career, one day own a ranch and wear a big hat.
He’ll account for about 40-50 scores in 2009. Texas will win a lot of games and he’ll ride off to Sunday with a boatload of Longhorn passing records. And with a season opening slate of Louisiana Monroe, Wyoming, Texas Tech (a little revenge) and UTEP, expect McCoy to emerge as the Heisman leader at the quarter pole.
Potential Breakout Star in 2009
Cody Johnson scored 12 touchdowns, or once every 6.3 times he touched the ball, so I’m a day late and a dollar short on predicting his breakout. TE Blaine Irby’s return should really help both the passing and running game, and it’s not out of the realm of possibilities that he catches eight scores. But neither possesses the skill and fantasy future of WR Malcolm Williams.
Williams exploded onto the scene during Texas’ comeback bid against Texas Tech. His 4-182-2 performance had fantasy owners calling and texting their commissioners while the game was still in progress. And then Williams all but disappeared for the remainder of the season. However we saw enough to lead us to believe that young Malcolm is on the verge of stardom.
Cosby’s departure leaves a clear void in the passing attack, and Brandon Collins and Williams will battle it out to emerge as a true of Colt McCoy’s affection.
Freshman Flyer
Fozzy Whitaker can’t seem to stay healthy and Vondrell McGee can’t seem to break out. And people are comparing incoming recruit Chris Whaley to everyone from Earl Campbell to Eric Dickerson to Adrian Peterson. At least he’s not walking into a world of high expectations.
Here’s all you need to know about Chris Whaley: he’s big, strong and fast. And he’ll get a real opportunity to see starting carries in the prolific Texas offense.
Oklahoma 12-2
Fantasy starters lost: WR Juaquin Iglesias, WR Manuel Johnson
Returning: QB Sam Bradford, RB Chris Brown, RB DeMarco Murray, WR Ryan Broyles, TE Jermaine Gresham
Looking to Emerge: WR Jameel Owens
O-line outlook: Phil Loadholt and Duke Robinson are the biggest of four losses on the line. Only one starter (Trent Williams) returns.
D Returners: 9
Look Back
Here’s what we wrote last February:
Murray, Bradford and Gresham appear locks to put up huge numbers. The wide receiver spot, with such unfair depth, will likely see a great deal of balance that will make predicting big pass-catching games a difficult chore. This is an offensive unit without any weaknesses.
And not much has changed. The 2008 Oklahoma Sooners were the best offense since teams stopped wearing leather helmets. They averaged 54 points a game and 560 yards of total offense. Their starting quarterback accounted for 55 touchdowns, and their top two backs combined for 39 scores. Their tight end scored fourteen times. Their kicker attempted 99 extra points.
Will be missed next season
Juaquin Iglesias (74-1150-10) and Manuel Johnson (42-714-9) both leave Norman after very nice senior campaigns, and while there is plenty of talent ready for a chance, these veteran departures, coupled with the big losses on the offensive line, do raise some red flags heading into 2009.
Likely Offensive Star in 2009
The Heisman Trophy winning quarterback and his 55 touchdowns return for 2009. He’s going to be the offensive star in Norman. However I do see a dip in his numbers next season, and I believe he and McCoy will swap places in fantasy point production.
I don’t care if Oklahoma has a young Orlando Pace and Anthony Munoz waiting to step in, the line is going to be inexperienced and Bradford is going to actually have to rush a throw or two on occasion. Does this mean you’ll want to let Bradford slide down the board? No, not unless you see surefire 40+ touchdown quarterbacks in your crystal ball.
Of all the players that decided to return for their senior season none surprised me more than Jermaine Gresham. I’m thrilled any time a collegiate star sticks around, but Gresham will have a hard time as he attempts to bolster his draft stock even further. Yes he and Ryan Broyles appear the only sure things in the passing attack, but this offense will struggle to match last season’s historic output.
And only at Oklahoma can it take this long to mention backs as talented as Chris Brown and DeMarco Murray. Each is incredibly explosive, and even with the Bob Stoops running back job share program firmly in place, both should emerge as top national backs. Bob Stoops has definite polygamist tendencies as he’s shown an uncanny ability to keep a lot of people happy.
Potential Breakout Star in 2009
Because naming Ryan Broyles here would be too easy following a 46-687-6 season, we’ll go with another wide receiver ready to make a name for himself. Even with the recent recruiting haul of wide receivers we’re not ready to toss Jameel Owens back into the pond.
Owens, one of the Sooners’ top recruits for 2008, only saw four catches last season. However anyone who truly expected this youngster to supplant the receivers ahead of him was likely a little confused. Owens can still play football really well, and he’ll be given every chance to win a starting job this spring and summer.
By the way…at every other program but Oklahoma and USC Jermie Calhoun would be the breakout star heading into 2009. But with so much running back talent already on the depth chart Mr. Calhoun will just have to be patient.
Freshman Flyer
By all accounts WR Cameron Kenney is ready to step right in and be an immediate factor in the Oklahoma passing game. The JUCO will vie for serious snaps this summer, and he definitely has a frame ready to withstand the pounding of the Big 12. Interestingly enough Kenney also punted and kicked field goals while at Garden City Community College, but he’ll be expected to have a greater impact with his hands than with his feet.
Texas Tech 11-2
Fantasy starters lost: QB Graham Harrell, RB Shannon Woods, WR Michael Crabtree, WR Eric Morris
Returning: RB Baron Batch, WR Detron Lewis, WR Edward Britton, K Matt Williams
Looking to Emerge: WR Tramain Swindall, WR Lyle Leong, WR Eric Ward, RB Eric Stephens
O-line outlook: Ryland Reed and Louis Vasquez depart. Talent returns elsewhere.
D Returners: 8
Look Back
It’s too easy and short-sighted to allow the losses to Oklahoma and Ole Miss to serve as the signature moments of Texas Tech’s 2008 campaign. About 98% of college football programs would sell their soul to experience the highs provided by the Red Raiders’ 10-0 start and 11-2 season. Texas Tech has gone from decent program, to fantasy goldmine to major national player, and 2008 saw the program reach new heights.
The offensive numbers (45 ppg, 535 yards from scrimmage) were typical. The quarterback was again a top national producer and the coach once again displayed the refreshing willingness to do things his own unique way. 2008 was the culmination of a long-term building process, and now comes the hard part of sustaining that success while appeasing a fan base with even bigger dreams.
Will be missed next season
With the departures of Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree the Red Raiders lose 667 fantasy points. Toss in Shannon Woods and Eric Morris and we’re looking at replacing 950 fantasy points. So clearly there will be some players missed.
Graham Harrell was a typical Texas Tech quarterback. And I mean this in the most glowing fashion. Like a month in Grand Cayman is the typical vacation. Or the 18th at Pebble Beach is a typical finishing hole. I imagine a scenario where Mike Leach calls his quarterback in to announce he’s won the starting job. And a trap door opens, sending the new quarterback spiraling down miles of tunnels where he lands and is greeted by Kliff Kingsbury, Sonny Cumbie, B.J Symons and hell, even Cody Hodges. Each then calmly explains what it means to be a Texas Tech quarterback and the awesome responsibility and obligation to college fantasy football owners everywhere. Throwing for about nine miles and 134 touchdowns during his illustrious career it’s safe to say that Graham Harrell kept up his end of the bargain.
Michael Crabtree was not a typical Texas Tech receiver. Wonder why the Texas Tech receivers used to pretty much share the receptions and touchdowns up until the last two seasons? It’s because there had never been a Michael Crabtree in the football program. He burst on the scene, and it’s likely we’ll never see a two-year run from a BCS receiver like we just saw from Crabtree.
Crabtree caught 231 balls for 3127 yards and 41 touchdowns in two seasons. It took Jerry Rice four seasons to catch 51 touchdowns at Mississippi Valley State. Crabtree will be the measuring stick by which all great college fantasy receivers will be measured, and Texas Tech has no one that can come close to matching the production lost with his departure.
Likely Offensive Star in 2009
Two years ago it was the Oklahoma quarterback battle. Last year it was replacing Paul Smith at Tulsa. And this year college fantasy footballers will be focused on the starting quarterback battle at Texas Tech. There are currently five quarterbacks on the Texas Tech roster, and incoming recruit Jacob Karam will join the fray this summer. In order to be safe I recommend that you draft every single one of them.
Taylor Potts is expected to be handed the golden ticket to the Red Raider Chocolate Factory. Comments made by the mad scientist himself have confirmed Potts’ status as the leader. And if he does win the job then Potts is the clear fantasy star, just as every TT quarterback before him has emerged as one to build your team around.
Still for some reason this doesn’t appear to be the same seamless transition we’ve witnessed over the years. If you are fortunate to own Potts or nab him early in your draft then you may want to grab Seth Doege a little later. And if you’re already grabbing Doege it can’t hurt to spend a late-round pick on Stefan Loucks. And hell, if you do pick up Loucks would it really kill you to take a flyer on Steven Sheffield?
Potential Breakout Star in 2009
Gee, how about a wide receiver?
Lyle Leong does a lot of things well. He can run pretty fast, he has nice hands, and he can go up and get it. Good enough for us.
He’s only totaled 33 catches for 380 yards and four scores in his first two seasons. But a player looking to catch passes, let alone touchdowns, with Michael Crabtree, Eric Morris and Detron Lewis ahead of him on the depth chart would, to paraphrase Del Griffith, have more luck playing pickup sticks with his butt cheeks.
Leong could really emerge now that the reception and touchdown whore has moved on.
Freshman Flyer
Eric Ward joins the Red Raiders, and as a wide receiver there’s a very good chance that he sees 2009 turn into a redshirt season. RB Eric Stephens could likely step right in and play today, but with Baron Batch and Aaron Crawford already on the depth chart this will prove difficult.
Thankfully the Mike Leach contract situation has been resolved. No Mike Leach and suddenly a freshman at Texas Tech will have the same long-term value as a gift card from Circuit City.
Oklahoma State 9-4
Fantasy starters lost: TE Brandon Pettigrew, WR Damian Davis, WR Bo Bowling?
Returning: QB Zac Robinson, RB Kendall Hunter, RB Keith Toston, WR Dez Bryant, K Dan Bailey
Looking to Emerge: WR Justin Blackmon
O-line outlook: Denning and Washington move on, three starters return.
D Returners: 6
Look Back
Oklahoma State’s big three of Zac Robinson, Kendall Hunter and Dez Bryant accounted for 783 fantasy points, or for comparison purposes, only 41 fewer than the three main producers for Texas Tech. The fact that Oklahoma State’s big three essentially matched their counterparts in Lubbock while the team averaged three fewer points per game illustrates the beauty of the Cowboys’ offense: they don’t care about spreading the wealth around; they’re willing to feed their stars and dare defenses to stop them.
One wonders what may have happened had OSU been able to beat Texas in late October. The tough loss began a rough spell that saw the squad limp to a 2-4 finish. While there’s little shame in losing to Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech and Oregon the stretch run likely caused the offensive talent to wonder if their friends on defense would try and maybe tackle a little bit better.
9-4 and it’s clear that Mike Gundy has serious talent flocking to Stillwater. And this talent will be showcased in yet another exciting offense operating in the Big 12 South.
Will be missed next season
There are some things in life that leave me mystified. How do fax machines work? Why does Nicholas Cage continue to get paid to appear in movies? And how did Brandon Pettigrew not score one touchdown in 2008?
Yes I know his ankle sprain cost him both games and mobility during the course of the season. And I know that he showed up bigtime against Texas. But an athlete like Pettigrew would seem a lock for four scores even if he played half of a season on one leg.
Touchdowns or not Pettigrew was great at drawing attention from linebackers and safeties, thus freeing things up for others to run wild and have fun. Pettigrew’s numbers may not be missed a great deal; but his presence on the field will.
Likely Offensive Star in 2009
He’s our number one receiver heading into 2009, so we clearly feel that Dez Bryant can follow up his 87-1480-19 season (21 total scores) with another banner year. When Dez Bryant went off in 2008 he could provide some serious fireworks. Three weeks saw him score four touchdowns. You know what fantasy owners call such weeks? Wins.
A fantasy championship can be won with Zac Robinson leading your squad, but you’ll need those explosive weeks from another position. Robinson accounted for more than four scores on only three occasions, and in a conference with the likes of McCoy, Bradford and Reesing that is good, not great.
I don’t see Kendall Hunter reaching 218 fantasy points in 2009. Look for Keith Toston to move closer to 1000-10, thus cutting Hunter’s touchdown output down to the neighborhood of 13 or 14.
Potential Breakout Star in 2009
Oklahoma State wide receivers have made some poor decisions this off-season. Damian Davis has been shown the door, and Bo Bowling’s reefer madness may see him looking elsewhere when it’s all said and done. In a search for a complementary pass catcher to Dez Bryant we’ll name Justin Blackmon, a wide receiver who redshirted last season.
According to reports Blackmon may have the highest ceiling of those OSU wide receivers looking to make an impact. And with the attention that will be focused on Dez Bryant there’s no reason to think that a talented #2 couldn’t emerge with a 800-8 2009 season.
Another one to watch is TE Jamal Mosley. He did a nice job filling in for Pettigrew in 2008, and the Cowboys like to utilize their tight ends.
Freshman Flyer
Tracy Moore will emerge as a really big WR target or a speedy tight end. Either way he’ll create matchup difficulties down the road.
In the event that Kendall Hunter and/or Keith Toston should struggle with injuries then Dexter Pratt immediately becomes a fantasy factor this season. The talented back is already enrolled at Oklahoma State, and it appears he’s ready to roll right now. At worst Pratt is a great keeper prospect.
Baylor 4-8
Fantasy starters lost: WR Thomas White
Returning: QB Robert Griffin, RB Jay Finley, WR Kendall Wright, TE Justin Akers, K Ben Parks
Looking to Emerge: WR David Gettis, RB Terrance Ganaway
O-line outlook: Both tackles, Smith and Dan Gay move on, veteran starters return elsewhere.
D Returners: 8
Look Back
No one will ever ask me this because it’s a dumb question. But if someone came up to me and said, “Brian which freshman from last year is most likely to have his number retired by his school” I would unequivocally answer “Robert Griffin” and then I’d tell him to ask more questions.
Most game-changing recruits go to power programs where they continue grand traditions and become another link in the long chain of success. Some game-changing recruits, like Randy Moss, end up at lower-profile schools due to extenuating circumstances. And some choose schools in hopes of making an impact and setting the program on a new course, and this is what Robert Griffin likely had in mind when he decided to follow Art Briles to Baylor. Griffin is a special talent who has the potential to take his school to heights not seen around Waco in a long, long time.
The three coaches prior to Briles won 28 games and lost 85, a record that would earn Matt Millen an extension but is not enough to appease Texas football fans, even those that have suffered through years of lousy football. Baylor will likely never push for division supremacy, and Baylor didn’t beat anyone good on its way to a 4-8 record. Heck their losses (by three against UConn and Mizzou and seven to Texas Tech) were more impressive than their wins. But Baylor’s offensive performance (28 ppg) and dynamic quarterback, coupled with this season’s recruiting performance should at least make the Texas A&M faithful fearful that the Bears are about to move right past them.
Will be missed next season
Jacoby Jones had a nose for the end zone, concluding his career with a six-touchdown senior season. Thomas White was a former walk-on who performed well in his senior season, catching 35 balls for 385 yards and two scores. Each moves on having made a nice impact on the program, but both can be replaced by younger talent.
Likely Offensive Star in 2009
Robert Griffin is Baylor football. Fans loved him after he spurned the likes of Nebraska and Tennessee to sign with Baylor. And now they’re ready to commission a statue in his likeness.
Griffin enrolled early and quickly supplanted Blake Szymanski as the starting quarterback. And by the time the season was four games old it had become abundantly clear that he’d lead the Bears for as long as he remained in Waco. Surpassing the 20 fantasy point barrier in nine games Griffin showed remarkable consistency and poise. He threw fifteen touchdown passes and only three picks and he was able to run for more than 100 yards against both Oklahoma and Texas.
The 2009 Baylor schedule features games against Wake and UConn in the first two weeks, so there is some concern that Griffin could get off to a slow start. And even though he did it last year I am a little concerned that Oklahoma and Texas may find a way to contain him. Thus Griffin is a likely backup on your fantasy roster, but one who will make the next three years very exciting.
And if you’re casting your lot with Robert Griffin then it makes perfect sense to nab his partner in crime, talented rising sophomore Kendall Wright. Fresh off a 50-649-5 receiving season Wright may be a top value in BCS leagues. The fact that he saw 29 carries and gained 168 yards with one touchdown is the cherry on top.
Potential Breakout Star in 2009
David Gettis is really fast and he plays in a wide-open offense that has no problems winging the ball around freely. Why then could he not find the endzone as a junior? I don’t know, but I have a feeling that Gettis could emerge as a very nice second receiving option.
Jay Finley does some very nice things out of the backfield, and he did gain over 1000 yards from scrimmage while scoring nine times in 2008. There is concern that Terrance Ganaway, who followed his coach from Houston, could steal some of Finley’s production. But until further notice it appears that Finley is the one to lead the running attack.
Freshman Flyer
RB Glaco Martin intrigues us, and there is a bunch of wide receivers coming in. It’s really hard to make a determination because many of the players seem comparable in talent, and there is already a nice collection of young offensive skill on the roster.
Texas A&M 4-8
Fantasy starters lost: RB Mike Goodson, RB Jorvorskie Lane, K Richie Bean
Returning: QB Jerrod Johnson, WR Jeff Fuller, WR Ryan Tannehill, TE Jamie McCoy
Looking to Emerge: RB Cyrus Gray, RB Christine Michael, K Matt Szymanski
O-line outlook: RT Travis Schneider moves on.
D Returners: 6
Look Back
It just seems like Texas A&M is the little brother left behind when all the big kids pile in the car and head off for fun. Every other program in the Big 12 South seems to be stockpiling more and more offensive talent, and they actually use it in a creative fashion. And Texas A&M will continue to run the west coast offense. Jerrod Johnson should be wheeling and dealing and launching bombs. Instead he’s throwing slants and hoping his wide receivers can break a bunch of tackles.
The best west coast quarterback ever was Joe Montana because he was the most accurate quarterback of all time, and he got to practice endlessly with the smartest football coach ever. And some college coaches think that kids who spend their free time playing quarter bounce can master this thing.
2008 began with a loss to Arkansas State, and then Mike Sherman continued to show admirable but misguided loyalty to Stephen McGee. When it was all said and done the Aggies had beaten New Mexico, Army, Iowa State and Colorado. And Texas A&M was stuck in the 25 point per game range because they could only muster 88 yards per game on the ground.
Jerrod Johnson showed he’s a pretty good quarterback and he threw to some very nice young wide receivers. And Cyrus Gray and Christine Michael are some studly backs. JUST SCRAP THE SYSTEM!
The Aggies have plenty of skill position talent. And their offensive line should show marked improvement. If we don’t see some type of offensive growth in 2009 then Sherman may be in trouble sooner rather than later.
Will be missed next season
The Mike Goodson/Jorvorskie Lane era shouldn’t have gone out with such a whimper. Maybe it was the tears Lane shed when he didn’t get the ball in the Alamo Bowl in 2007, but Sherman never seemed to take to the big fella. And he wasn’t exactly peas to Mike Goodson’s carrots. Each back, along with Stephen McGee move on, and in doing so the Dennis Franchione era continues to fade away.
Stephen McGee had some definite highlights (the 06 win over Texas was nice) during his four years in College Station, and it’s a shame his career couldn’t end on a higher note.
Likely Offensive Star in 2009
Jerrod Johnson will have some decent games, though it’ll be hard to pin your season on the rising junior. The offense will simply have a hard time putting up enough points to make Johnson a viable option.
His prime targets, Jeff Fuller and Ryan Tannehill, are each interesting fantasy prospects. Fuller is coming off a 50-630-9 freshman season. And Tannehill is coming off a 55-844-5 rookie campaign of his own, though he may move back to his original quarterback position. Throw in returning TE Jamie McCoy and there are some real potential weapons in the passing game.
Potential Breakout Star in 2009
Cyrus Gray is poised for a breakout sophomore campaign, and provided his line can create some wiggle room he could push for 800-8. However the prime obstacle may not be opposing defenses but his backfield mate.
The highly-touted Gray played second fiddle to the veteran Goodson in 2008, and one would expect the sophomore to make a strong push to be the primary ball carrier.
Freshman Flyer
Incoming back Christine Michael is a stud. He comes to College Station as Rivals.com fourth rated back in the country, and he’ll be ready to see the field from day one.
Final Big 12 Thought
Every school in this division has potential fantasy superstars, and most schools have more than one. This football conference brings to mind the Paul Westhead Loyola Marymount hoops squads of nearly 20, yes 20, years ago. Defense is nice, but it sure is a lot more fun to just outscore the other guys.