Florida brought another national title back to the SEC East, and they did so with an impressive array of fantasy talent. Tim Tebow’s return will highlight the 2009 campaign, but once we move away from Gainesville we find very few surefire fantasy stars in this division. Of course the SEC will always provide its share of top-flight fantasy defenses, but for a conference that is always deemed to bring in the greatest recruiting hauls, one must wonder if we’re seeing here what often happens in the NFL: defenses that are just too skilled for offensive skill position players to truly shine.
A peek at the 2008 fantasy point leaders from the SEC East displays the expected: the Gators dominated this division. And with the great turnover at Georgia, the lingering questions at South Carolina, the change at Tennessee, the youth at Kentucky and the belief that Vandy will always be defense-first, it’s hard to see this changing in 2009.
2008 All-SEC East Fantasy Team *returning for 2009
QB: Tim Tebow*
RB: Knowshon Moreno
RB: Jeffrey Demps*
WR: Percy Harvin
WR: A.J. Green*
TE: Jared Cook
K: Jonathan Phillips
D: Florida
Florida 12-1*
Fantasy starters lost: WR Percy Harvin, WR Louis Murphy, TE Cornelius Ingram, K Jonathan Phillips
Returning: QB Tim Tebow, RB Jeffrey Demps, RB Chris Rainey, TE Aaron Hernandez
Looking to Emerge: WR David Nelson, WR Deonte Thompson, WR Andre Debose, K Caleb Sturgis
O-line outlook: There are losses, especially with tackles Jason Watkins and Phil Trautwein. This is one area of concern.
D Returners: All 11 are back
Look Back
The offense averaged nearly 44 points per game with 213 yards passing and 231 yards rushing. The defense was stingy to the tune of under 13 points per game; oh and the Florida Gators won another national championship. I'm not sure there was ever a better example of a "good loss" than Ole Miss' win in The Swamp. Suddenly a very talented team had something to rally around, and the teams that comprised the remainder of the schedule had little chance.
The offense was again built around its once-in-a-generation quarterback. Tim Tebow accounted for 388 fantasy points in 2008, which was nearly 100 fewer than his total posted during his Heisman Trophy winning campaign. Still, even with this pathetic dropoff the Gator remained in the top five of BCS quarterbacks. Two national titles, the big trophy and the respect and admiration of the entire sporting world. And we still have a senior season.
Will be missed next season
Compared to 2007 Percy Harvin caught 19 fewer passes and ran the ball 13 fewer times. And he scored seven more touchdowns. For all the talk of Harvin's injury woes and health questions, the fact the Florida dynamo touched the ball 252 times while gaining 2926 yards from scrimmage in his last two seasons sure makes me wish I had durability issues of my own. Not only was Harvin the explosive force we've come to expect in 2008, but he was incredibly consistent, scoring in every game in which he played (and he only missed the SEC title game).
Harvin didn't have the breakout performances of a Dez Bryant, Jeremy Maclin or Michael Crabtree but he did score two touchdowns in five games. He deserves to be mentioned with the likes of Rocket Ismail, Peter Warrick and Reggie Bush when the conversation turns to top gamebreakers of the last twenty years. It's becoming an annual rite that Urban Meyer brings in a "Percy Harvin clone" and this speaks volumes to his impact.
The departures of Kestahn Moore and Louis Murphy mean 11 touchdowns move on. While Murphy's veteran presence will be missed, each can be replaced. Urban Meyer seems to have that recruiting thing down. Cornelius Ingram also departs after a 2008 lost entirely to injury, and K Jonathan Phillips will also move on.
Just a reminder: the entire defense returns.
Likely Offensive Star in 2009
We usually don't get to see players with a resume like Tim Tebow's return for a fourth season. He's accounted for 97 touchdowns and exactly 7600 yards from scrimmage in his last two seasons. Any reasonable fan knew there was no way he could top his 55-score 2007, and for a stretch it looked like he may struggle to even hit 35 in 2008. Tim Tebow had 13 touchdowns through his first six games. And then 24 in his next six contests.
The guess here is that Tebow's touchdown total will fall somewhere between the last two seasons' numbers. The off-season addition of Scott Loeffler to the coaching staff will definitely make Tim Tebow a better thrower of the football. And it's hard to imagine a player like Tim Tebow will suddenly decide to toss the ball away rather than tuck it and blow up some linebackers. That's just not his style.
Sit back and enjoy Tim Tebow this season. We'll likely never see another one like him.
Potential Breakout Star in 2009
Urban Meyer's willingness to use as many as eight receivers makes it hard to name one that we expect to emerge. David Nelson is the leader among returning receivers, and there are certainly some talented recruits: Frankie Hammond Jr., T.J. Lawrence and Justin Williams, and all are anxious for a chance. However we'll cast our lot with Deonte Thompson. Harvin's departure opens the door for a playmaker to shine, and coming off a 18-269-3 season Thompson seems in prime position.
Still owners will want to monitor practice reports to see which targets are emerging as favorites of Tim Tebow.
The battle for carries is shaping up as a three-way battle between Jeffrey Demps, Chris Rainey and Emmanuel Moody. Each provides something different for the offense, though none saw more than 84 carries in 2008. The running back that emerges as Florida's starter will likely be best utilized in total-points leagues; it's difficult to bank on consistent yards and touchdowns when #15 is in the backfield too.
Freshman Flyer
Every single recruiting service, from Rivals.com all the way down to Steve's Recruiting Page.com is deeming Andre Debose the next Percy Harvin. They're similar in stature, and Debose played the exact same role as Harvin did in high school, a jack-of-all-trades gamebreaking offensive weapon. Urban Meyer really likes him, and that's good enough for us.
Georgia 10-3
Fantasy starters lost: QB Matthew Stafford, RB Knowshon Moreno, WR Mohamed Massaquoi,
Returning:WR A.J. Green, K Blair Walsh
Looking to Emerge: QB Joe Cox, QB Logan Gray, QB Aaron Murray, RB Caleb King, RB Richard Samuel, WR Tavarres King, TE Aron White
O-line outlook: Young talented group in place.
D Returners: Loaded. Bunch of studs returning from injury.
Look Back
Georgia had a quarterback post 274 fantasy points, a RB with 227 and two receivers with more than 100 points. And three of those four (Stafford, Moreno, Massaquoi) will not be in Athens in 2009. Despite these fantasy producers the Georgia Bulldogs averaged 12 fewer points per game than Florida while allowing 12 more points than the Gators. What does this tell us? First, that the Georgia offense doesn't place a premium on overall offensive balance; they'll go with who and what works. Second, the Georgia Bulldogs were not in Florida's league last year. And with the offensive losses it's hard to see this changing in 2009.
Will be missed next season
I've compared Matt Stafford to Troy Aikman for two years. Extremely talented, quick release and prototypical NFL size. But neither put up the numbers as others simply because of the offensive scheme. If Stafford goes number one then the Aikman comparisons will likely continue.
The Stafford vs. Tebow debate really began when one chose Athens and the other chose Gainesville. And it continued for the next three years...and it really wasn't fair to Stafford. The two were in entirely different offensive systems.
It's not common for quarterbacks to enter the SEC and play a pivotal role right from the start. Stafford did just that, and his arm strength and pocket presence forced defensive coordinators to pick their poison.
Knowshon Moreno was more than just a highlight reel back. 18 touchdowns and nearly 1800 yards from scrimmage came on the heels of a 1587-14 freshman season. He scored six times in his first two games, and he was only held scoreless in two games. His 173 yards from scrimmage and three scores against Tennessee were pivotal for many owners down the stretch. Georgia has always had productive, talented backs, and they have a couple on the roster right now. But a dynamic, tough back like Moreno cannot be replaced easily. He was a sophomore really coming into his own, and an NFL squad will reap the rewards of his decision to move on.
Likely Offensive Star in 2009
A.J. Green may not be ready for spring ball, but he’ll be ready once the season kicks off. The most talented player on the offense, Green will need some rapid maturation from whoever emerges as the starting quarterback.
Potential Breakout Star in 2009
There are a few. Caleb King appears next in line as Georgia’s running back, and he’ll likely enter camp as the man to beat in the offensive backfield. However I am a fan of Richard Samuel, and I think he could do more than just pose problems for King’s owners.
Samuel, who’ll miss spring ball while he recovers from wrist surgery, is a tough kid. He’s earned the reputation as a worker who also has a fair share of talent. We may have a man running possessed once fall camp kicks off.
Last year Tavarres King lit up spring ball. And then he was redshirted. All signs point to King making an impact in 2009, though I’d be careful. Quarterback growing pains may make an investment in King one that won’t pay off until 2010 at the earliest.
Freshman Flyer
Mark Richt was willing to hand the keys to a freshman named Matthew Stafford, and he may just do it again. Incoming quarterback Aaron Murray arrived on campus early, and the deadly accurate signal caller will get a serious look as the quarterback of the present and future.
If you’re looking for a running back investment with the potential to pay off down the road then look no further than Washaun Ealey. This incoming freshman is a bruising back that may emerge as a touchdown machine in a very short time.
Vanderbilt 7-6
Fantasy starters lost: QB Chris Nickson, WR Sean Walker, K Bryant Hahnfeldt
Returning: TE Brandon Barden, RB Jared Hawkins
Looking to Emerge: QB Larry Smith
O-line outlook: They’re all back.
D Returners: 9
Look Back
Well that was nice. Vanderbilt, known by many as the SEC smart school with the funny basketball court, made a name for itself on the gridiron. A fast start was enough to overcome a lousy finish, and the Commodores made a bowl game. And then they faced a Boston College team that appeared to view their trip to the Music City Bowl with the same enthusiasm seen when I now open my 401K statements.
All good vibes aside, the Vanderbilt football program was a fantasy graveyard in 2009. The starting quarterback accounted for 14 scores, the starting running back scored five and it only took four touchdowns to lead the wide receiving group. It was defense, defense, defense as the Commodores averaged 122 yards on the ground and 133 through the air.
The team will be very strong in the trenches, and this will keep Vandy in many ballgames. Still it will not equate to fantasy success.
Will be missed next season
Chris Nickson and Sean Walker move on, and with them so go 18 touchdowns. Nickson posted two games with three touchdowns, though Walker could only muster one 100-yard receiving game.
Kicker Bryant Hahnfeldt leaves after a 13-17 season with 30 extra points.
All contributed, yet all can be replaced.
Likely Offensive Star in 2009
“Star” is a relative term. Percy Harvin wasn’t the star of the Florida offense, and Chris Brown may be the third option in the Sooner attack. So technically neither Harvin nor Brown is the star of his offense. However being an offensive star at Vanderbilt is akin to winning an argument on a message board: it may make you feel good but no one else really cares.
Vandy’s offensive focus seems to be put the defense in a good position. And if they do this long enough maybe the other offense will do something stupid. And when this happens in 2009 look for the Commodores to ride running back Jared Hawkins.
Coming off a season with over 700 yards and five touchdowns Hawkins should see his carries. If he can make the most of his red zone looks Hawkins could push for 900-8 on the season.
Keep in mind that Vanderbilt plays Georgia, South Carolina, Georgia Tech and Florida in consecutive weeks during the stretch run. This slate will not lead to big numbers from any Commodore.
Potential Breakout Star in 2009
Rising RS sophomore wide receiver Jamie Graham decided to stop playing basketball in order to focus on his football career. He had found it very difficult to play two SEC sports, so he’s going to give his body a little rest. And it could pay off nicely on the gridiron.
Coach Bobby Johnson has said that Graham may play both wide receiver and running back in 2009…and this could be good. Not draft him good, but hope Graham does well good.
Larry Smith may emerge as the starting quarterback, and he’ll battle with Mackenzi Adams for the right to lead the offense. Please don’t draft a Vanderbilt quarterback. I don’t care how many degrees you hold from the school.
Freshman Flyer
Vanderbilt nabbed running back Wesley Tate, brother of Notre Dame wide receiver Golden (Dome) Tate, late in the recruiting season. And this is an interesting signing as Tate can play. Bobby Johnson is doing a nice job of upgrading talent, and if this continues then we could see Vandy battle for recruits with the likes of Northwestern, ND, Stanford and Duke: programs that look to find guys who place a priority on going to recitations that aren’t required while playing a little football as well.
South Carolina 7-6
Fantasy starters lost: QB Chris Smelley, RB Mike Davis, WR Kenny McKinley, TE Jared Cook, K Ryan Succop
Returning: QB Stephen Garcia, RB Brian Maddox
Looking to Emerge: WR Jason Barnes, WR Moe Brown, WR Weslye Saunders, RB Jarvis Giles
O-line outlook: Sorensen and Merideth go, three starters return.
D Returners: 7
Look Back
There are times when watching Steve Spurrier on the South Carolina sidelines reminds me of watching Mike Ditka coach the New Orleans Saints. It just ain't right, and the offensive results bear out this comparison. Steve Spurrier left Florida and then he couldn’t coach quarterbacks or offense. Mike Ditka left Chicago and next thing you know he was taking pictures with a man in a dress.
Five times South Carolina scored under 20 points, and in no game did they score more than 34. They concluded their campaign by stinking up the joint against Iowa. And for as bad as the quarterback play has been (and as annoying as Stephen Garcia has been) it’s not all the passing game’s fault.
For all the fun and gun hype that Spurrier received while at Florida, he was still very committed to the run. And the running game has been lousy at South Carolina.
Averaging only 94 yards per game on the ground will not get it done. Thankfully there may be a young back or two that can help the offense actually become one for owners to consider.
Will be missed next season
Kenny McKinley, Mike Davis and Jared Cook didn’t put up huge numbers in 2008, but each will be missed. A hamstring injury kept McKinley off the field for a good portion of the season. Still, in limited action, he was able to catch 54 balls for 642 yards and four touchdowns. When healthy McKinley was a serious threat; unfortunately 2008 was just not his year.
The all-time receptions leader at South Carolina, Kenny McKinley will likely see his #11 retired in the very near future.
We kept waiting for Mike Davis to break out last season and it just never happened. He leaves after about 775 yards from scrimmage and four scores.
Jared Cook was a steady tight end who, thanks to the offensive woes, struggled to put up big numbers. It appears he’ll be one of the top tight ends selected in the draft, so it’s easy to conclude that Cook was underutilized in the 2008 USC offense.
Likely Offensive Star in 2009
It’s time for Stephen Garcia to actually make a true impact ON the field. And a good start would be forgetting his horrible performance in the Outback Bowl, where he completed nine passes to his teammates and three to Hawkeye defenders.
I can’t say that we’ve been very impressed with Garcia’s decision making on or off the field. But he appears to have a clear path to assuming the starting quarterback role. One would think that at some point the talent has to click. I’m not saying it will, but of all the skill talent at South Carolina Garcia has the best shot…that and we saved Jarvis Giles for our impact freshman blurb.
Potential Breakout Star in 2009
I really like two guys on the Gamecocks’ roster. Aramis Hillary is a talented youngster who drew considerable praise from the ball coach last year. After a redshirt season there will likely be an effort to get him on the field in 2009. Hillary, a quarterback, brings a very interesting skill set to the table, and it’s not one that has traditionally been a part of Spurrier’s quarterbacks. He is a very talented athlete that could be used in a variety of ways. It may not be 2009, but look for Hillary to break out at some point.
The more likely short-term impact player will be Dion LeCorn. LeCorn, who spent some time going back and forth between WR and DB, still ended the season with three touchdowns in his freshman year. With the departure of McKinley there are definitely some receptions to be had. LeCorn could be a surprise player in the conference.
Freshman Flyer
The CFFInsider.com camp has gone all in on Jarvis Giles. His film just looks different than nearly every other top back, and there is a very good chance that he’ll emerge as the replacement for Mike Davis. The Tampa native is already on campus, and there’s a very good chance that Giles becomes the SEC’s top offensive newcomer.
Tennessee 5-7
Fantasy starters lost: RB Arian Foster, WR Lucas Taylor,
Returning: QB Jonathan Crompton, RB Montario Hardesty, WR Gerald Jones, K Daniel Lincoln
Looking to Emerge: WR Nu'Keese Richardson
O-line outlook: Right side (Ramon Foster and Anthony Parker) move on.
D Returners: 6
Look Back
It wasn’t the way that Coach Fulmer wanted to see it end. Fulmer did too much in Knoxville to be shoved out following a 5-7 campaign, and he didn’t deserve to be replaced by a guy who looks and acts like Jay Mohr’s character in Jerry McGuire. And I miss old Phil already. His verbal spats with Steve Spurrier were actually fun. Kiffin’s spats with other coaches have a middle school element to them. In fact I’m waiting for reports that Kiffin is fond of cyber bullying.
The reason for the change was the inept offense. 17 points per game and less than 370 yards of total offense will not get it done. Neither Crompton nor Stephens performed well enough for the Vols to win consistently against an SEC slate. And Arian Foster’s career went out with a whimper.
Will be missed next season
Arian Foster and Lucas Taylor move on and these would have seemed much bigger losses had they occurred last year. Both struggled to meet the standards set with their 2007 seasons. Taylor went 73-1000-5 and Foster went for over 15000 yards and 14 scores back in 07. And they combined for two touchdowns last season.
Likely Offensive Star in 2009
Montario Hardesty seems most likely to step up and lead the Vols. He had a nose for the endzone in 2008, and with the questions surrounding the quarterback spot he’ll be one to lean on in 2009. Still, Hardesty will see an SEC schedule, so it’s hard to see a really big offensive output from the tailback.
A coaching change always brings a great deal of uncertainty. And it’s hard to predict exactly how much preference Kiffin will show to his inherited ballplayers.
Potential Breakout Star in 2009
Gerald Jones is another that could emerge in 2009. 23 of his 53 touches came on the ground, so it’s clear his playmaking ability is worth exploring by the new coaching staff.
Freshman Flyer
There is no doubt that Kiffin will want to show off his new talent, and Nu'Keese Richardson is likely to see the most opportunities to make plays. Richardson was all set to join Andre Debose in Gainesville and provide Urban Meyer with a devastating 1-2 freshman punch. However a change of heart has brought Richardson to Knoxville, and it’s clear that Kiffin will have no problem making him a focal point of the attack.
Kentucky 7-6
Fantasy starters lost: RB Tony Dixon, WR Dicky Lyons
Returning: QB Mike Hartline, QB/WR Randall Cobb, K Lones Seiber, RB Alfonso Smith
Looking to Emerge: QB Morgan Newton, QB Ryan Mossakowski, RB Derrick Locke (return from injury)
O-line outlook: Garry Williams moves on. Everyone else returns.
D Returners: 5
Look Back
Well the year AW (After Woodson) proved that Rich Brooks really does have something going in Lexington. The talent level continues to improve across the board, and Kentucky appears on the verge of making some serious noise in the conference. Bowl games may no longer be the determining factor of the season’s success.
UK has sprinted past Louisville, and now the sights are set on the likes of Tennessee. However the 28-10 loss at the hands of Vols shows there is still some work to go. The offense (22 ppg) needs more consistency, and the defense must add more playmakers. Still, this program appears primed for a nice run, and fantasy owners may find some real gems at Kentucky.
Will be missed next season
Tony Dixon and Dicky Lyons move on. Dixon ended his collegiate career with over 500 yards and seven scores while Lyons saw his season end following a mid-October knee injury. Losing their leading pass catcher proved difficult for Kentucky to overcome, and owners who were banking that Lyons would improve on his 56-655-7 2007 campaign were left to scurry to the waiver wire.
Likely Offensive Star in 2009
I don’t know what role Randall Cobb will have in the offense next season. I just know he’ll be the focal point. Whether Cobb plays quarterback, running back or wide receiver he’s going to have the ball in his hands, and he’s going to make plays. He accounted for 11 touchdowns, but only two came through the air.
It appears that Mike Hartline will enter spring ball as the leader of the quarterback battle. But with the likes of Randall Cobb and incoming freshman Morgan Newton hanging around Hartline's hold on the job could be best deemed tenuous.
Randall Cobb should push towards 15 touchdowns in 2009, and much of his value will depend on the positions where your league deems him eligible, and the position where Cobb eventually spends the majority of his time.
Potential Breakout Star in 2009
Derrick Locke will sit out spring ball as he recovers from a knee injury. But when he returns look for Locke to lead the UK ground attack. Locke, a nice receiver out of the backfield, combines good speed with a willingness to run between the tackles. Prior to his injury he was well on his way to surpassing his 2007 numbers (94-521-5) and should his rehab go well there is reason to believe that Locke could push towards 1000 yards.
Freshman Flyer
Quarterbacks Morgan Newton or Ryan Mossakowski could come in and make the Hartline-Cobb quarterback debate moot. It’s clear from his post-signing day comments that Rich Brooks believes that Morgan Newton can come right in and succeed in the SEC. And Indiana’s top player in 2008 appears ready to give it a whirl.
Newton and Mossakowski are both talented quarterbacks, and the arrival of both to Lexington speaks volumes about what Rich Brooks has accomplished on the recruiting trail.
Final SEC Thought
Other than those that play for the Florida Gators and Georgia Bulldogs, SEC East players have typically been complementary components of BCS fantasy rosters. In 2009 only Florida may provide a deep pool of fantasy players.