2009 Look Ahead: SEC West

We conclude the BCS portion of our Spring Look Aheads with a peek at the SEC West, a division that offers a comparable number of fantasy factors to its Eastern counterpart. The likes of Charles Scott, Mark Ingram, Julio Jones, Michael Smith and Jevan Snead all return for 2009, though it's always dangerous to start SEC players during much of the rough and tumble conference campaign. Still with the coaching change at Mississippi State and the continued transformation of the Ole Miss offense, we may be witnessing an offensive rebirth in what is often deemed the nation's strongest conference.

A quick glance at the top performers of a season ago shows that all but Glen Coffee return.

2008 All-SEC West Fantasy Team *returning for 2009

QB: Jevan Snead* RB: Charles Scott* RB: Glen Coffee WR: Dexter McCluster* WR: Brandon LaFell* TE: D.J. Williams* K: Leigh Tiffin* D: Alabama

Alabama 12-2

Fantasy starters lost: QB John Parker Wilson, RB Glen Coffee, TE Nick Walker

Returning: RB Mark Ingram, WR Julio Jones, K Leigh Tiffin

Looking to Emerge: QB Greg McElroy, QB Austin Starr, RB Roy Upchurch, RB Trent Richardson

O-line outlook: The departures of Andre Smith, Antoine Caldwell and Marlon Davis will hurt. Two starters return.

D Returners: 9

Look Back

Behind a balanced offense and a tough defense Alabama put themselves in position. And then they fought hard in a loss to Florida and didn’t show up against Utah, and the result was a young team that finished at 12-2. The offense was a ground-heavy attack, and both Glen Coffee and Mark Ingram were impact fantasy players. However the passing game was one where owners wanted to take a pass.

John Parker Wilson was steady, though his eleven interceptions were too many for this type of offense. And Julio Jones was everything we thought he would be; he’ll only need to find the end zone with greater frequency in order to become a fantasy superstar.

Will be missed next season

Glen Coffee decided to strike while the iron was hot. Coffee chalked up nine games with a score on his way to 1500 yards from scrimmage and 11 touchdowns. He posted two games with two touchdowns, but there was no real breakout game. Sharing carries with Mark Ingram and even Roy Upchurch, Coffee made the most of his opportunity.

John Parker Wilson also departs Tuscaloosa, and his absence will be greater felt on the field and in the locker room than on the fantasy stat sheets.

Likely Offensive Star in 2009

There are two schools of thought here. One says that Mark Ingram will seize the starting job and see carries befitting a #1 back, thus Ingram will be the offensive fantasy star. And the other says that Ingram will split carries with the likes of Roy Upchurch or even Eddie Lacy and/or Trent Richardson, thus making Julio Jones the #1 stat man for the Tide.

Count me in the camp of both. Even as a freshman Ingram displayed a nose for the end zone. And even though Julio Jones only scored four times he displayed a freakish ability to play football. His combination of size and speed is extremely rare, and regardless of who emerges as the starting quarterback expect Jones to produce.

Both should exceed 1,000 yards and each is looking at double digit scores.

Potential Breakout Star in 2009

I really like Marquis Maze, though it’s hard to envision two Alabama wide receivers having big years. Maze appears fully capable of doing more than just taking some heat off of Julio Jones. The rising sophomore only caught 11 balls for 137 yards in 2008, though two were for scores (with one against Auburn).

A new quarterback will lead the Tide against Virginia Tech on September 5, and while he’ll likely not be a national fantasy factor, the winner of the competition could be one to nab in SEC leagues. The smart money is on Greg McElroy, though incoming freshman A.J. McCarron certainly warrants a mention.

Freshman Flyer

Mark Ingram may get a taste of his own medicine this year. In 2008 it was the freshman Ingram having an immediate impact, thus limiting the fantasy potential and production of more veteran backs. And now Trent Richardson could do the exact same thing. The Florida native is a highly-touted prospect who appears ready to play right now.

Mississippi 9-4

Fantasy starters lost: WR Mike Wallace

Returning: QB Jevan Snead, RB Brandon Bolden, RB Cordera Eason, WR Dexter McCluster, K Joshua Shene

Looking to Emerge: RB Enrique Davis, WR Patrick Patterson

O-line outlook: Michael Oher, Darryl Harris and Maurice Miller all depart.

D Returners: 8

Look Back

A good season became a great one when the Rebels rolled Texas Tech in the Cotton Bowl. At one point Ole Miss was sitting at 3-4, and they were experiencing the troubles everyone expected to see in year one of the Houston Nutt era. And then they didn’t lose again. Of course the highlight was the win over the eventual national champion, and fantasy owners were given a great preview of what is to come in Oxford.

The offense averaged over 32 points per game while putting up 221 passing yards and 186 rushing yards. Jevan Snead showed just why he battled Colt McCoy tooth and nail while at Texas, Dexter McCluster was a stud and Mike Wallace went out on a high note.

And if Houston Nutt’s 2009 recruiting class is any indication then this is just the beginning.

Will be missed next season

Mike Wallace followed up a solid (38-716-6) junior season with a near identical (39-784-7) senior campaign. Wallace caught fire down the stretch as he pulled in seven touchdown receptions in his final six games. He proved an excellent sidekick for Dexter McCluster, and Ole Miss will need someone to step up in order to replace his lost production.

Likely Offensive Star in 2009

I can’t decide between Jevan Snead and Dexter McCluster. Each is a dynamic talent that will look to build on great 2008 seasons. Fresh off a 29-touchdown campaign Snead is the unquestioned leader of the offense. Coming off a seven-score season with 1280 yards from scrimmage it’s clear that McCluster is a threat to score with every touch.

Snead was impressive down the stretch, accounting for 14 touchdowns in his final four games. And McCluster can expect to see his touches increase in 2009 as that wild Nutt figures out more ways to get the ball in his playmaker’s hands.

Potential Breakout Star in 2009

There are some very good backs in Oxford so naming Cordera Eason the breakout star is a little risky. These backs will fight for carries like it’s the last beer, though Eason does have the most impressive resume based on 2008. He accounted for 749 yards and five touchdowns while never seeing more than 20 carries in a game. Rising sophomore Brandon Bolden and Enrique Davis will play prominent roles, so buyer beware.

Freshman Flyer

From a long-term perspective the CFFInsider.com recruiting guru LOVES Raymond Cotton. Mr. Esselink is convinced that he’s going to be a star, though it will likely happen once Jevan Snead moves on. In deep keeper leagues he’s definitely one to nab and stash.

Looking towards next year? Then grab WR Patrick Patterson. The big target may serve as Jevan Snead’s favorite when it comes time to throw up a jump ball.

LSU 8-5

Fantasy starters lost: WR Demetrius Byrd, K Colt David

Returning: QB Jarrett Lee, RB Charles Scott, WR Brandon LaFell, TE Richard Dickson

Looking to Emerge: QB Jordan Jefferson, QB Russell Shepard, WR Terrance Toliver, WR Rueben Randall, RB Keiland Williams, RB Richard Murphy, K Josh Jasper

O-line outlook: Herman Johnson leaves a very big hole. Brett Helms moves on as well.

D Returners: 6

Look Back

Scoring nearly 31 points in the SEC is normally enough to win a lot of games. But give up 24 points a game and an 8-5 record can be expected. One year after winning another national championship the Tigers struggled to display any type of consistency. And they appeared ready to end the season in a free fall before flexing their muscles against Georgia Tech in the Chick-fil-A Bowl.

Consistent quarterback play was hard to come by, and part of this can certainly be blamed on Ryan Perrilloux’s poor decisions and subsequent departure from the program. Still the offense did allow for some talented players to post good fantasy numbers, and following another big recruiting haul it’s expected that LSU will once again push towards double-digit wins in 2009. And this will likely yield even better fantasy numbers.

Will be missed next season

Demetrius Byrd may not have met expectations in 2008, but his 37-513-4 performance did take some heat off Brandon LaFell. It’s expected that the Tigers will have players clamoring to fill his role.

Colt David’s numbers fell off a bit, but he was a steady kicker in Baton Rouge. Josh Jasper appears fully capable of taking over the role

Likely Offensive Star in 2009

Charles Scott’s 2008 seemed to put an end to all that split carry stuff. The burly back rumbled for 1174 yards on the ground while scoring an impressive 18 touchdowns. Scott had seven multi-score ballgames, and this included three touchdowns in the bowl game. While he was a good bet for 100 yards and a touch, Scott did struggle mightily against Florida and Ole Miss, two outings that killed weeks for owners.

Brandon LaFell’s decision to return to Baton Rouge is a win-win for everyone but opposing defenses. LaFell will likely push towards 1000 yards and ten touchdowns, he’ll provide a nice target for a maturing quarterback, and his presence will keep some heat off of Charles Scott. Everyone’s happy.

Potential Breakout Star in 2009

It’s time for Terrance Toliver to show some of that promise. It seems like just yesterday when we were excited about what he could for LSU, and now he’s a rising junior coming off a 22-257-1 season. Once he saw the field in 2008 he was good for about two catches a game. Yes, quarterbacking play didn’t help but Toliver is just too talented to be limited to these types of numbers.

Look for Toliver to slide right into Demetrius Byrd’s vacated spot, and look for this former five star recruit to have a breakout season.

Freshman Flyer

Should neither Jordan Jefferson nor Jarrett Lee decide to grab the quarterback job then incoming freshman Russell Shepard will be glad to take over. Shepard is a special talent who may see significant action in a multi-purpose role if he isn’t named starter, though his long-term future is very much at quarterback.

Look for WR Rueben Randall to see early action as well, though with talented depth already at the spot his role may be limited.

Arkansas 5-7

Fantasy starters lost: QB Casey Dick

Returning: RB Michael Smith, TE D.J. Williams, K Alex Tejada

Looking to Emerge: QB Ryan Mallett, RB Knile Davis, some WRs

O-line outlook: Four starters return.

D Returners: 10

Look Back

A nice start. Yes there were some speed bumps but the Bobby Petrino era is clearly moving in the right direction.

Everything seems to have worked out. Houston Nutt is happy in Oxford, old Ole Miss coach Ed Orgeron is collecting a fat paycheck in Knoxville, the new dude coaching the Atlanta Falcons had a very nice year and Petrino is happy back on campus. Drinks all around.

The season highlight was clearly the win over LSU in the finale. The team’s offense struggled to put up points for much of the season, and the 22 ppg average can be attributed to a lackluster passing attack. And the defense allowed 31 points per contest, and this won’t lead to many happy locker rooms in the SEC. The good news is both problems appear to have ready solutions.

Ryan Mallett and some young wide receivers will help fix the offense, and a whole bunch of defensive starters returning will help with the defensive improvement. Owners will be wise to make long-term investments in the Arkansas Razorbacks.

Will be missed next season

Part of us will miss Casey Dick’s interceptions; they did provide a nice bit of amusement over the years, though Arkansas fans are likely to disagree. Casey Dick was a nice stopgap for Bobby Petrino.

Likely Offensive Star in 2009

Provided Michael Smith can recover from the hamstring injury that will force him to miss spring ball the running game will be in very capable hands. Smith gained over 1150 yards and scored ten times while dealing with the aforementioned hamstring injury that cost him the season’s final two games. Before the injury he proved to be an explosive home run back that helped an offense and team in transition.

There is a wee bit of concern that USC refugee Broderick Green and/or De’Anthony Curtis, Dennis Johnson, Brandon Barnett or newcomers Knile Davis and Ronnie Wingo Jr. could emerge and provide Michael Smith the type of rest that will keep him fresh while limiting his fantasy production.

Still in an offense that is very talented but young, Smith appears the best fantasy bet.

Potential Breakout Star in 2009

Ryan Mallett can toss the pigskin a quarter mile. And it’s his cannon arm that will likely make him a fantasy star. We’ve discussed Mr. Mallett a great deal already in recent pieces so it’s clear we’re infatuated with this poor young man.

Mallett could have landed in a lot of places following his decision to leave Ann Arbor. And he decided that playing for Bobby Petrino was the best fit. He didn’t become a Hog to sit on the bench.

His recent arrest for public drunkenness is a concern, however while it should be a learning experience for the young lad, it alone shouldn’t cause missed time. However he’s likely used his mulligan.

Freshman Flyer

Running back Knile Davis is already on campus, and this kid is a bruiser. He could emerge as the back to provide the thunder to Smith’s lightning. He’s a potential touchdown vulture down the road.

Auburn 5-7

Fantasy starters lost: RB Brad Lester, WR Rodgeriqus Smith

Returning: QB Kodi Burns, QB Chris Todd, RB Ben Tate, WR/RB Mario Fannin

Looking to Emerge:RB Onterio McCalebb, WR Montez Billings, WR DeAngelo Benton

O-line outlook: Green and Bosley move on. Three starters return.

D Returners: 9

Look Back

A new offensive system. A quarterback controversy that never went away. The new offensive coordinator thrown under the bus, and then the head man shown the door. War Eagle has seen better days. The commitment was never fully made to Tony Franklin's offense, and whether or not the right personnel was in place, the buy-in among the coaching staff wasn't present, and then intuitive college football players picked up on it. And the ship was sunk before leaving port.

Now comes Gene Chizik fresh off a two-win season at Iowa State. And honestly, Auburn could've brought in Gene Chizik, Gene Simmons or Mean Gene Okerlund and fantasy owners wouldn't have thought too much about it. But when The Chizzer brought in Gus Malzahn suddenly Auburn had struck fantasy gold. Initially thought to be yet another high school coach brought on to a college staff in order to bring recruits along with him, Gus Malzahn quickly showed he could take the offense that made him a high school coaching legend and apply them to the college game while at Arkansas.

A personality clash with Houston Nutt and Gus was gone, and then he helped Tulsa's offense dominate everyone for the next two years. And now he's back in the SEC, only this time he brings much more clout to his position. And the Auburn offense is about to become really fun to watch.

Will be missed next season

Brad Lester's senior season didn't go the way as planned. He was a solid ballplayer, and he'll be missed. Still there is ample talent ready to step in.

Likely Offensive Star in 2009

Am I the only person who thinks that Mario Fannin could be one of the most explosive players in the country? The young man can fly, catch the ball and simply make plays. I'm willing to overlook any shortcomings in pass blocking because Fannin can get it done with the pigskin in his hands. And if he can finally find a position (preferably tailback) where he can see regular touches then we may be looking at the SEC's breakout player.

Freshman Flyer

WR DeAngelo Benton is a former 2-time LSU recruit that struggled to qualify. He's spent two years trying to reach the standards necessary to play college football, and now he's at Auburn. And now he'll have to learn a big playbook. Benton has earned his share of prep accolades, and he'll be nice late round longshot. RB Onterio McCalebb has also left Hargrave Military Academy with dreams of making an impact on the AU offense. He's described as a burner. We like speed.

Mississippi State 4-8

Fantasy starters lost: QB Wesley Carroll

Returning: QB Tyson Lee, RB Anthony Dixon, WR Brandon Mcrae

Looking to Emerge:QB Tyler Russell, RB Montrell Conner, WR Chad Bumphis, WR Delmon Robinson

O-line outlook: Only Michael Gates moves on.

D Returners: 4

Look Back

Sylvester Croom had a few moments during his tenure when you thought just maybe this could be good. However the 2008 season, highlighted by wins over Arkansas and Vanderbilt, will be likely remembered for the 3-2 loss to Auburn, a game which may have led to two competing coaches getting fired at precisely the same time. If we were to stamp time of death on the eras of both Tommy Tubberville and Sylvester Croom it may have been that September afternoon which set football back about 80 years.

The offense simply couldn't make plays and watching Anthony Dixon try to find running room was akin to watching my buddy Tony try to get his ball out of the trap: both try very hard yet they often find themselves right back where they started. Dixon did account for nearly 1000 yards from scrimmage and nine touchdowns, though very little came easy.

15 points per game won’t get it done in the SEC, and 100 yards rushing won’t get it done anywhere. However there’s now some reason to believe.

The hiring of Dan Mullen from the Florida Gators brings hope. And if we learned anything from Andy Dufresne it's that hope is "a good thing." However even the staunchest optimist likely realizes that Mississippi State still has to crawl through some tunnels of crap before it can escape SEC West cellar.

Will be missed next season

Wesley Carroll has decided to transfer to Florida International and following a sophomore campaign that saw him account for eight touchdowns and five interceptions it’s likely for the best that the quarterback competition is narrowed down a bit.

The receivers who move on take very little production with them, and this MAY make MSU’s incoming receivers solid keeper prospects, especially in leagues which emphasize the SEC.

Likely Offensive Star in 2009

It’s still going to be Anthony Dixon. He’ll be the rock around which Mullen reconstructs the offense. And if his offensive line can improve on the blocking aspect then Dixon could find some much bigger holes to run through in 2009. He ran well against legitimate foes like Georgia Tech, Vanderbilt and Arkansas, so there’s a very good chance he’ll have some big games provided the spread attack can give the rising senior more room to roam.

There are plenty of very good backs in the SEC, and there’s a very good chance that Dixon will be forgotten by many. He’ll be a consistent back who sees enough carries to really bust out on occasion.

Potential Breakout Star in 2009

The new system means everyone is a suspect. In fact there is a very good chance it will be a true freshman who emerges as the breakout star. Brandon Mcrae’s lengthy recovery from his broken leg suffered in the Egg Bowl casts doubt not only on his potential to shine but his availability at all.

I do like Delmon Robinson to emerge as a prime receiving threat. The rising sophomore nabbed 12 passes for 125 yards in 2008, and with the anticipated improvements in the passing game one could see these numbers increasing considerably. Robinson seems like a receiver that just gets it done.

Freshman Flyer

Mississippi State welcomes a trio of heavyweight SEC recruits. Running back Montrell Conner, quarterback Tyler Russell and wide receiver Chad Bumphis provide Dan Mullen with some outstanding building blocks. Russell is our pick to emerge as starter, but he’ll take his lumps behind that offensive line. The one who appears most ready to contribute immediately from a fantasy perspective is Bumphis.

There are definite starting jobs to be earned in the MSU passing attack, and there's no better time than right now to indoctrinate a youngster in a new system.

Final SEC West Thoughts

The systems in place at Arkansas, Ole Miss and now Mississippi State, coupled with the recruiting abilities of Les Miles and Nick Saban, mean we've got a rising fantasy division on our hands. Again, they'll always be those 20-17 SEC stretcher fests, but there's now greater potential for some shootouts.